Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS73 KMKX 271810
ESFMKX
WIC021-025-027-039-045-049-055-059-065-077-079-089-101-105-111-
117-127-131-133-281800-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
110 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2008
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
FOR SEPT.-NOV. 2008 FOR ALL RIVER BASINS IN SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
THE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN OFFICE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR ALL
RIVER FORECAST POINTS IN THE SERVICE AREA. AHPS ENABLES THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER
OUTLOOKS.
THESE OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED ONCE A MONTH AND ARE IN ADDITION TO THE 7
DAY RIVER FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED WHEN RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS
ARE IN FLOOD OR FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
THE VALUES IN THE TABLE BELOW ARE VALID FROM SEPT. 1 TO NOV. 30
2008. IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS
INDICATE THE CHANCE THAT A LOCATION COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED
STAGE IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE: THE WISCONSIN RIVER AT
PORTAGE HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 17 FEET. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT THE RIVER WILL RISE TO 17.1 FEET IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
FLOOD
STAGE
SITE (FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
WISCONSIN R.
PORTAGE 17 10.5 11.2 12.1 13.2 13.5 13.7 14.0 15.6 17.1
BARABOO R.
ROCK SPR. 18.5 8.1 9.8 10.2 11.4 13.2 13.7 15.3 19.3 21.0
W. BARAB. 12 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.9 4.1 4.5 5.4 7.1
BARABOO 16 7.6 8.8 9.3 10.1 11.6 12.5 13.7 16.2 17.8
CRAWFISH R.
MILFORD 7 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 4.3 5.4 6.6
ROCK R.
WATERTOWN 5.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.8 3.3 3.7 4.4
JEFFERSON 10 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.9 6.5 7.4 9.3
FT ATKINS. 6 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5 2.1 3.3 3.9 5.0
NEWV/KOSH 10 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.5 6.2 7.0 7.8 9.9
AFTON 9 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.6 4.9 5.5 6.5 7.3 9.5
TURTLE CK.
CLINTON 8 4.3 4.8 5.1 5.4 5.9 6.1 6.6 7.8 9.3
E. BR. PEC. R.
BLANCHV. 11 5.0 6.4 7.8 8.2 9.3 10.1 10.9 11.8 13.1
PEC. R.
DARLING. 13.5 2.8 3.9 5.2 5.8 6.5 7.9 8.4 10.7 14.9
MARTINT. 13.5 5.6 6.2 6.9 7.5 8.7 9.9 11.5 14.0 16.0
SUGAR R.
BRODHEAD 5 1.5 2.3 2.7 3.1 4.1 4.8 5.9 6.6 7.7
FOX R.
BERLIN 13 8.9 9.3 9.6 9.8 10.0 10.4 11.5 12.3 13.7
SHEBOY. R.
SHEBOY. 8 2.4 2.7 2.9 3.3 3.5 4.1 4.8 5.8 7.1
ROOT R. CANAL
RAYMOND 9 2.8 3.1 3.5 4.2 4.6 5.4 5.9 6.6 8.1
ROOT R.
FRANKLIN 7 2.4 2.8 3.0 3.6 4.0 4.6 5.2 5.7 6.7
RACINE 7 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.4 5.0
MILWAUKEE R.
CEDARB. 11 5.8 6.1 6.3 6.6 7.0 7.7 8.2 9.2 10.1
FOX R.
BURLING. 11 6.8 7.1 7.3 7.6 7.8 8.4 8.7 9.2 10.1
NEW MUNS. 10 6.3 6.9 7.3 7.9 8.2 9.2 9.6 10.4 11.9
===================================================================
THE TABLE BELOW INDICATED THE CHANCES OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED
STAGES DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD. FOR EXAMPLE...THERE IS A 90
PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE WISCONSIN RIVER AT PORTAGE WILL FALL BELOW
9.3 FEET IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. THE NUMBERS REPRESENT NORMAL
SEASONAL TRENDS FOR LOW WATER LEVELS.
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
FLOOD
STAGE
SITE (FT) 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
-------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
WISCONSIN R.
PORTAGE 17 8.6 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.8 8.9 9.1 9.2 9.3
BARABOO R.
ROCK SPR. 18.5 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7
W. BARAB. 12 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7
BARABOO 16 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.1
CRAWFISH R.
MILFORD 7 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
ROCK R.
WATERTOWN 5.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6
JEFFERSON 10 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4
FT ATKINS. 6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
NEWV/KOSH 10 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.9
AFTON 9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.7
TURTLE CK.
CLINTON 8 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7
E. BR. PEC. R.
BLANCHV. 11 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6
PEC. R.
DARLING. 13.5 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6
MARTINT. 13.5 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3
SUGAR R.
BRODHEAD 5 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
FOX R.
BERLIN 13 8.0 8.0 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.5
SHEBOY. R.
SHEBOY. 8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
ROOT R. CANAL
RAYMOND 9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
ROOT R.
FRANKLIN 8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
RACINE 7 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3
MILWAUKEE R.
CEDARB. 11 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5
FOX R.
BURLING. 11 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.2
NEW MUNS. 10 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5
THIS OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED USING
MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL
DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...
AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE MADE.
ADDITIONAL AHPS INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX LOOK FOR AHPS.
$$
HAHN
