Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS74 KLIX 051909 CCA
ESFLIX
LAC005-007-033-037-047-051-057-063-071-075-077-087-089-091-093-095-
103-105-109-117-121-125-MSC005-045-047-059-109-113-147-157-061915-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
106 PM CST FRI MAR 5 2010
...2010 SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...
...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IN SPRING 2010 WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE
AVERAGE...
INTRODUCTION..........
THIS IS THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AT NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE, LOUISIANA FOR
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA, SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI, AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.
THIS PRODUCT IS INTENDED TO OUTLINE CURRENT RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS AND TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL SITUATIONS THAT WOULD INDUCE
FLOODING OR EXACERBATE DROUGHT.
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT - UPSTREAM OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
SNOW DEPTH RANGED FROM 6 TO 30 INCHES OVER IOWA AND MINNESOTA WHILE
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI HAD A SNOW DEPTH OF LESS THAN
6 INCHES. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ACROSS MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
IOWA RANGED FROM 2 TO 7 INCHES WHILE 1 TO 3 INCHES SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS REMAINED OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS, NORTHERN MISSOURI AND
THE REMAINDER OF IOWA. SNOW DEPTH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY RANGED FROM 2
TO 15 INCHES ACROSS OHIO, WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
WITH LESS THAN 2 INCHES OVER NORTH INDIANA AND EASTERN KENTUCKY.
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS OHIO, WEST
VIRGINIA AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WHILE LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENT REMAINED ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND EASTERN
KENTUCKY.
SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT - COLD TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF EXCESSIVE
PRECIPITATION DURING THE FALL AND WINTER HAVE RESULTED IN LONG TERM
SOIL MOISTURE CONTENTS BEING NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER MOST OF THE
AREA.
FLOODING - AT THIS TIME, MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING ON THE LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER AND ON THE LOWER PEARL RIVER IN SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA.
...SHORT TERM METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK...
RAINFALL - OVER THE NEXT WEEK, THIS REGION WILL HAVE PERIODS OF
RAINFALL, WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATED RAIN TOTALS OF 1.0 TO 2.0 INCHES
POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI, SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND
COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.
...LONG TERM METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK.....
THE 30-DAY METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK INDICATES BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR
LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.
THE 90-DAY METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK INDICATES BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
INDICATED ACROSS LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ATCHAFALAYA RIVER BASINS.....
MINOR TO MODERATE FALLS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE LOWER OHIO AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ARKANSAS CITY, AR AND
GREENVILLE, MS WHICH HAD MINOR RISES. NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING ALONG
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO RIVERS. MINOR FLOODING IS
OCCURRING AT MORGAN CITY, LA ON THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER.
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS WERE ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OBSERVED STREAMFLOWS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING BELOW
NORMAL FROM CAIRO IL ON THE OHIO RIVER DOWN TO HELENA, AR ON THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ELSEWHERE ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER,
STREAMFLOWS WERE RUNNING NORMAL TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.
SEE THE CHART BELOW FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS SHOWING PERCENT OF NORMAL
STREAMFLOWS:
MISSISSIPPI RIVER
2/18/10 3/4/10
VICKSBURG MS 139% 119%
NATCHEZ MS 177% 142%
RED RIVER LANDING LA 163% 142%
BATON ROUGE LA 163% 120%
NEW ORLEANS LA 162% 113%
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
2/18/10 3/4/10
SIMMESPORT LA 175% 92%
PEARL BASIN IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.....
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE PEARL RIVER
BASIN IN MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA. OBSERVED STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING
NORMAL TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL. MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR FORECAST
TO OCCUR IN LOUISIANA FROM BOGALUSA TO PEARL RIVER. THE OBSERVED
PERCENT OF NORMAL STREAMFLOWS ARE GIVEN BELOW.
PEARL RIVER
2/18/10 3/4/10
MONTICELLO MS 135% 105%
BOGALUSA LA 229% 75%
AMITE RIVER...COMITE RIVER...AND NORTHSHORE DRAINAGE BASINS IN SOUTH
LOUISIANA...
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS OVER THE AMITE,
COMITE AND NORTHSHORE RIVER BASINS. STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL. MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST ON THE TANGIPAHOA AT ROBERT
LA. THE OBSERVED PERCENT OF NORMAL STREAMFLOWS ARE GIVEN BELOW.
AMITE RIVER
2/18/10 3/4/10
DARLINGTON LA 89% 255%
DENHAM SPRINGS LA 104% 265%
COMITE RIVER
2/18/10 3/4/10
OLIVE BRANCH LA 74% 189%
PASCAGOULA BASIN IN SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.....
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE
PASCAGOULA BASIN. OBSERVED STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL. MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST ON THE CHICKASAWHAY RIVER AT
LEAKESVILLE MS. THE OBSERVED PERCENT OF NORMAL STREAMFLOWS ARE
GIVEN BELOW.
PASCAGOULA RIVER
2/18/10 3/4/10
MERRILL MS 139% 90%
...2010 SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
BASED ON OBSERVED STREAMFLOWS, EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS,
AND NORMAL SPRING RAINFALL/SNOW MELT PATTERNS, AN ABOVE AVERAGE FLOOD
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI, AND ATCHAFALAYA
RIVERS. THE MAGNITUDE OF FUTURE CRESTS WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT AND
EXTENT OF ANY UPSTREAM ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW COVER AND RESULTANT
SNOW MELT; COUPLED, WITH THE FREQUENCY, INTENSITY, AND EXTENT OF
SPRING RAINS.
BASED ON CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS, OBSERVED STREAMFLOWS AND
NORMAL SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS, AN ABOVE AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER PEARL RIVER BASIN, THE AMITE RIVER BASIN,
THE COMITE RIVER BASIN, THE NORTHSHORE DRAINAGE BASIN, AND THE
PASCAGOULA RIVER BASIN.
THIS IS THE LAST RELEASE OF THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR
THE WFO NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA UNLESS
CONDITIONS WARRANT ANOTHER RELEASE.
STREAMFLOW DATA PROVIDED BY THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY AND THE U.S.
ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS.
PLEASE DIRECT COMMENTS TO...
PATRICIA BROWN
SERVICE HYDROLOGIST
WFO NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
(985) 645-0565 EXT. 228
$$
