Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS73 KMQT 291633
ESFMQT
MIC013-053-061-071-103-131-301633-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1233 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
FOR THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE MENOMINEE RIVER BASIN AND SELECT
RIVERS IN UPPER MICHIGAN...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MARQUETTE HAS IMPLEMENTED
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR SELECT RIVERS IN
UPPER MICHIGAN AND THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE MENOMINEE RIVER BASIN.
AHPS ENABLES THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE
PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION WHICH CAN BE USED TO DETERMINE THE LEVEL
OF RISK FOR LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS.
THIS SERVICE ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGIC DATA AND WEATHER
INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MQT
THESE OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED IN ADDITION TO THE SEASONAL 5 DAY RIVER
FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED.
THE VALUES IN THE TABLES BELOW ARE VALID 09/01/2008 TO 11/30/2008
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THAT A LOCATION ON A RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE
LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE: THE PAINT RIVER AT CRYSTAL
FALLS HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 7 FEET. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THE
RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE 4.3 FEET IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
BLACK RIVER
BESSEMER 10.0 1.5 1.9 2.3 2.5 2.7 3.2 3.5 4.4 6.0
PAINT RIVER
CRYSTAL FALLS 7.0 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.5
ONTONAGON RIVER
ROCKLAND 25.0 6.6 6.9 7.4 7.8 7.9 8.8 9.8 10.4 11.0
CHOCOLAY RIVER
HARVEY 10.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.8 4.0
ESCANABA RIVER
GWINN 7.0 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.9
MIDDLE BRANCH ESCANABA RIVER
HUMBOLDT 6.5 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.5 4.0 4.4
STURGEON RIVER
ALSTON 8.0 4.1 4.4 4.6 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 6.0
SIDNAW 12.0 4.1 4.5 4.6 4.8 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.2
MICHIGAMME RIVER
WITCH LAKE 9.0 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.8
PESHEKEE RIVER
CHAMPION 8.5 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.8 4.0
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THAT A LOCATION ON A RIVER COULD FALL BELOW THE LISTED STAGE
LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE: THE PAINT RIVER AT CRYSTAL
FALLS HAS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER COULD FALL TO 2.0 FEET IN
THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
LOCATION 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
-------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
BLACK RIVER
BESSEMER 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0
PAINT RIVER
CRYSTAL FALLS 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1
ONTONAGON RIVER
ROCKLAND 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.8
CHOCOLAY RIVER
HARVEY 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8
ESCANABA RIVER
GWINN 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7
MIDDLE BRANCH ESCANABA RIVER
HUMBOLDT 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.9
STURGEON RIVER
ALSTON 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8
SIDNAW 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8
MICHIGAMME RIVER
WITCH LAKE 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6
PESHEKEE RIVER
CHAMPION 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE SELECTED RIVERS WITHIN THE MENOMINEE RIVER BASIN COULD EXCEED
THE LISTED RIVER FLOWS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FLOWS LISTED BELOW ARE
IN CUBIC FEET PER SECOND (CFS).
LOCATION 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
MICHIGAMME RESERVOIR
INFLOW 430 520 610 800 970 1270 1370 1540 1880
PESHEKEE RIVER
CHAMPION 120 190 210 270 360 410 510 610 720
PAINT RIVER
CRYSTAL FALLS 470 520 630 660 870 1110 1430 1640 1890
MICHIGAMME RIVER
WITCH LAKE 170 210 270 330 380 500 560 630 820
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE SELECTED RIVERS WITHIN THE MENOMINEE RIVER BASIN COULD FALL
BELOW THE LISTED RIVER FLOWS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FLOWS LISTED BELOW
ARE IN CUBIC FEET PER SECOND(CFS).
LOCATION 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
-------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
MICHIGAMME RESERVOIR
INFLOW 190 210 210 210 220 220 230 240 270
PESHEKEE RIVER
CHAMPION 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 20 30
PAINT RIVER
CRYSTAL FALLS 160 180 180 190 190 190 200 200 210
MICHIGAMME RIVER
WITCH LAKE 80 80 80 80 90 90 90 100 130
...8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK...
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED.
...90 DAY OUTLOOK...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT THREE
MONTHS...WITH NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
...SOIL MOISTURE AND DROUGHT STATUS...
SOIL MOISTURE IS BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF UPPER
MICHIGAN...DUE TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN
DURING AUGUST.
IN THE MOST RECENT ISSUANCE OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (FROM AUGUST
26)...LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM MUNISING TO MANISTIQUE WERE
LISTED IN THE ABNORMALLY DRY CATEGORY...WITH THE REST OF UPPER
MICHIGAN NOT INCLUDED IN A DROUGHT CATEGORY. PRECIPITATION FOR THE
LAST 30 DAYS HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL ACROSS ALL OF UPPER MICHIGAN. IN
ADDITION...LOCATIONS IN WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN NEAR THE WISCONSIN
BORDER ARE APPROACHING MODERATE DROUGHT STATUS.
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS FOR SELECT RIVERS IN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE MENOMINEE RIVER BASIN ARE
ISSUED NEAR THE END OF EACH MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
$$
SRF
