Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS73 KMQT 052241
ESFMQT
MIC013-053-061-071-103-131-062241-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
541 PM EST FRI MAR 5 2010
...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 2...
...LOW POTENTIAL FOR SNOW MELT FLOODING...
BASED ON CURRENT SNOW PACK CONDITIONS...SOIL MOISTURE AND ONGOING
MARGINAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS...THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SNOW MELT
FLOODING THIS SPRING. A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SNOW MELT FLOODING MEANS
MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY DAMAGE IS EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF THE SNOW
MELT THIS SPRING.
...SPRING FLOODING POTENTIAL STATISTICS (FOR SPECIFIC RIVERS)...
CHANCE OF
SPRING FLOODING
--------------- BASIN
FLD NORMAL | THIS DROUGHT
LOCATION STG YEAR | YEAR STATUS
-----------------------------------------------------
PESHEKEE RIVER AT
CHAMPION 4NW (CHPM4) 8.5 8% | <1% NONE
MICHIGAMME RIVER AT
WITCH LAKE (WLKM4) 9.0 36% | 6% D0
PAINT RIVER AT
CRYSTAL FALLS (CRYM4) 7.0 25% | 20% D1
BLACK RIVER NEAR
BESSEMER (BESM4) 10.0 20% | 20% D0
ONTONAGON RIVER NEAR
ROCKLAND (RKLM4) 25.0 1% | 1% D0
TRAP ROCK RIVER NEAR
LAKE LINDEN (TRRM4) 8.5 52% | 52% NONE
MID BR ESCANABA R AT
HUMBOLDT (HUMM4) 6.5 20% | 12% NONE
EAST BR ESCANABA R AT
GWINN (GNNM4) 7.0 3% | 3% NONE
STURGEON R AT
ALSTON 5SE (ALSM4) 8.0 70% | 51% D0
CHOCOLAY R AT
HARVEY (HRVM4) 10.0 N/A | N/A NONE
FLD STG = FLOOD STAGE
N/A = NOT ENOUGH DATA TO DETERMINE VALUE
D0 = ABNORMALLY DRY
D1 = MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
...SNOW PACK CONDITIONS...
SNOW WATER
DEPTH EQUIVALENT DATE
(INCHES) (INCHES)
MARENISCO 22 4.8 3/2
IRONWOOD 20 8.2 3/2
WHITE PINE 20 3.1 2/23
LAKE LINDEN 16 3.9 2/26
CHASSELL 16 3.8 3/1
PAINESDALE 32 5.1 2/28
MOHAWK 33 5.2 2/26
CALUMET 21 6.1 3/1
WATTON 19 3.0 3/1
COVINGTON 20 4.3 2/26
NESTORIA 25 5.9 2/26
PESHEKEE 28 6.9 2/26
CHAMPION 20 4.6 2/26
REPUBLIC 16 4.3 2/26
NWS MARQUETTE 35 9.3 3/5
MARQUETTE CITY 20 3.4 3/1
HARVEY 18 4.5 2/28
NORWAY 7 2.3 2/28
STAMBAUGH 9 2.4 3/1
IRON RIVER 15 4.3 2/26
NET RIVER 16 3.7 2/26
AMASA 14 3.3 2/26
ELMWOOD 16 4.5 2/26
BEECHWOOD 15 4.1 2/26
MICHIGAMME RES 14 3.5 2/26
ALPHA 14 3.7 3/1
BRULE 13 3.0 3/1
TWIN FALLS 12 3.2 3/1
CHANNING 15 3.5 2/26
OVER THE LAST TWO WEEKS...UPPER MICHIGAN HAS EXPERIENCED SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WERE THE ONLY AREAS IN UPPER MICHIGAN
TO EXPERIENCE NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 2 WEEKS...DUE
TO LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL DURING THE LAST WEEK OF FEBRUARY. THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS PRODUCED
SOME COMPACTION OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK...WITH ONLY MINOR MELTING.
THEREFORE...THE CURRENT SNOW DEPTH REMAINS AT NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR
EARLY MARCH...WITH ONLY A FEW POCKETS OF BELOW NORMAL SNOW DEPTH
OVER THE KEWEENAW AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THE LEAST AMOUNT OF
SNOW IN UPPER MICHIGAN IS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WHERE
THERE IS ONLY A TRACE TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. NEAR THE
WISCONSIN BORDER 7 TO 22 INCHES OF SNOW DEPTH HAS BEEN
REPORTED...WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES OF WATER ARE OBSERVED IN THE SNOWPACK.
OVER THE WEST AND AWAY FROM THE WISCONSIN BORDER...SNOW DEPTHS RANGE
FROM 15 TO 37 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE FAVORED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF HOUGHTON AND OVER THE HURON
MOUNTAINS. IN THESE AREAS SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE MAINLY IN THE 3
TO 7 INCH RANGE.
...SOIL MOISTURE...
SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE UPPER
PENINSULA...WHILE NEAR NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS
THE EAST HALF. IN TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS OBSERVED FROST
DEPTHS ARE SHALLOW AND ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 INCHES...AWAY FROM
THESE AREAS AND TOWARDS THE WISCONSIN BORDER...FROST DEPTHS RANGE
FROM 1 TO 3 FEET.
...TEMPERATURE/PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...MARCH 6 THROUGH MARCH 13...HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH THE LARGER STORM
SYSTEMS TRACKING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THEREFORE...LITTLE TO
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING EACH NIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD PRODUCE A GRADUAL MELT OF THE SNOW PACK OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
OVER THE NEXT 8 TO 14 DAYS...THERE IS AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR
UPPER MICHIGAN TO EXPERIENCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
THIS SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK IS FOR ALL RIVERS IN
UPPER MICHIGAN EXCLUDING THE MONTREAL...BRULE AND MENOMINEE
RIVERS...AS WELL AS THOSE RIVERS IN CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES.
FOR INFORMATION ON THESE RIVERS...PLEASE SEE THE EQUIVALENT OF THIS
DISCUSSION FROM THE GAYLORD AND GREEN BAY NWS OFFICES.
NOTE...THIS SNOWMELT OUTLOOK IS BASED OFF OF CURRENT BASIN
CONDITIONS AND AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
MONTH AND A HALF.
THE NEXT SPRING FLOODING AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED
ON MARCH 12TH.
$$
SRF
