Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS71 KPHI 051754
ESFPHI
DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-
PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-062000-
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1250 PM EST FRI MAR 5 2010
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...NUMBER 5
THIS IS THE FIFTH IN A SERIES OF ANNUAL WINTER/SPRING FLOOD
POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD
OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH FLOODING) OVER THE MIDDLE/LOWER
DELAWARE, LEHIGH, SCHUYLKILL, PASSAIC AND RARITAN RIVER BASINS.
THESE STATEMENTS WILL PROVIDE INFORMATION ON FLOOD THREAT CONDITIONS
SUCH AS RECENT PRECIPITATION, SOIL MOISTURE, SNOW COVER AND ITS
WATER EQUIVALENT, RIVER ICE CONDITIONS, STREAMFLOW, FUTURE
PRECIPITATION AND OTHERS.
IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR
WHICH LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF YEAR, EVEN
WHEN THE OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED TO BE LOW.
THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FOR THE TWO-WEEK PERIOD, MARCH 5-19, 2010.
IN THE MOUNT HOLLY, NEW JERSEY HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA), THE
FLOOD POTENTIAL IS ABOVE NORMAL, PARTICULARLY FOR THE SECOND WEEK.
NOTE - FOR THE HEADWATERS OF THE DELAWARE RIVER, SEE THE STATEMENT
(FGUS71 KBGM ESFBGM) FROM OUR BINGHAMTON (BGM), NEW YORK OFFICE.
CURRENT FLOODING - NONE.
RECENT PRECIPITATION - NORMAL TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL, DEPENDING ON
LOCATION. BETWEEN 4.5 AND 7.5 INCHES OF LIQUID, HAS BEEN RECORDED
OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS. PRECIPITATION DEPARTURE MAPS CAN BE FOUND AT
WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/MARFC.
SNOW COVER - NORMAL. SNOW DEPTH AND BASIN-AVERAGE WATER
EQUIVALENT ESTIMATES CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/MARFC OR
WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV.
RIVER ICE - NORMAL. LITTLE IF ANY RIVER ICE IS BEING OBSERVED. THE
ICE THAT DOES EXIST WITHIN THE HSA IS NOT EXTENSIVE OR THICK ENOUGH
TO BE A HYDROLOGIC CONCERN.
STREAMFLOW - NORMAL TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. REAL TIME WATER DATA IS
AVAILABLE FROM THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY BY VISITING
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV.
SOIL MOISTURE - ABOVE NORMAL TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE
MONITORING CHARTS FROM NOAA`S CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAN BE FOUND
AT WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/SOILMST_MONITORING AND WWW.DROUGHT.GOV.
GROUND WATER - MONITORING WELLS INDICATE THAT CURRENT GROUND WATER
LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION ARE GENERALLY NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL.
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - ALL WATER SUPPLY AND FLOOD CONTROL RESERVOIRS
IN THE AREA ARE IN THE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL RANGE.
FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - THE WEATHER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES AND ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. THIS FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE
UNTIL NEXT WEEK. A WETTER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR OR
AFTER MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.
THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) - ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. ANOTHER TOOL USED TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINTER/SPRING FLOODING IS CALLED AHPS, ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE. ONE COMPONENT OF AHPS IS THE GENERATION OF
PROBABILISTIC RIVER FORECASTS BASED ON CURRENT BASIN CONDITIONS
(RIVER LEVELS, SOIL MOISTURE, EXTENT AND CONDITION OF SNOWPACK)
ALONG WITH 50 YEARS OF HISTORIC TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DATA.
FOR THIS OUTLOOK, THE AHPS TECHNIQUE HAS BEEN APPLIED TO THE
SUSQUEHANNA, DELAWARE, PASSAIC AND RARITAN RIVER SYSTEMS. FOURTEEN
DAY PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS GENERATED FOR THESE BASINS SHOW THAT THE
LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING IS ABOVE NORMAL COMPARED TO WHAT HAS BEEN
HISTORICALLY OBSERVED.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT AHPS PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS DO NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT FUTURE PRECIPITATION.
SUMMARY - TAKING ALL OF THE INCLUDED VARIABLES INTO CONSIDERATION,
THE OVERALL WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NOW ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI
$$
SUMMARY/OVERVIEW OF FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH MARCH 19, 2010:
OVERALL FLOOD POTENTIAL...ABOVE NORMAL, PARTICULARLY WEEK TWO.
CURRENT FLOODING...NONE.
RECENT PRECIPITATION...NORMAL TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.
SNOW COVER...NORMAL.
RIVER ICE...NORMAL.
STREAMFLOW...NORMAL TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.
SOIL MOISTURE...ABOVE NORMAL TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.
GROUND WATER...NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL.
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS...NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL.
AHPS...ABOVE NORMAL.
$$
KRUZDLO
