Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
137 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2008
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK...
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...
SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.
THE VALUES IN THE TABLE BELOW ARE VALID FROM OCT 23 2008 TO JAN 22
2008.
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THAT A LOCATION ON A RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE
LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE: THE COTTONWOOD RIVER AT
EMPORIA HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 20 FEET. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE 24.0 FEET IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
ALL STAGES IN FEET
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
COTTONWOOD RIVER
EMPORIA 20.0 5.5 5.8 7.6 8.9 11.5 14.2 17.0 24.0 25.3
NEOSHO RIVER
AMERICUS 26.0 5.8 5.8 7.3 8.8 11.4 13.4 16.4 19.6 25.5
EMPORIA 19.0 10.4 10.4 11.3 11.8 12.8 13.9 15.6 17.0 22.2
NEOSHO RAPIDS 22.0 5.8 5.8 8.2 10.7 12.8 15.4 17.7 23.6 26.4
BURLINGTON 27.0 7.3 7.9 8.9 9.4 10.5 11.4 12.6 13.6 18.5
LEROY 23.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.2 12.2 14.4 17.0 20.5 23.1
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA FOR MORE WEATHER AND
RIVER INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS.
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