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Weather for Mancos, Colorado

Lat: 37.35N, Lon: 108.29W
Wx Zone: COZ021 CWA Used: GJT

Colorado Drought Monitor

The Colorado Drought monitor is a subset of the United States Monitor, issued every Thursday morning, based on drought conditions the previous Tuesday. The map below shows the current drought level around the state, and the percent of Colorado land area in each drought level compared to the previous week.

Read an explanation of the drought intensities and what they mean.

Colorado Drought Monitor

Colorado Hydrologic Information Statement

Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.

000
FGUS75 KGJT 162009
ESFGJT
COC007-029-033-037-045-051-053-067-077-081-083-085-091-097-103-
107-111-113-UTC009-019-037-047-182015-

Water Supply Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
109 PM MST Thu Feb 16 2017

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN COLORADO AND
EASTERN UTAH...

...Spring Flood and water resources outlook for western Colorado
and eastern Utah number 1...

This is the initial 2017 spring runoff outlook for western
Colorado and eastern Utah covering all or portions of the
Yampa/White...Upper Colorado...Duchesne...Green...Gunnison...Dolores
and San Juan River Basins.

The potential for spring 2017 flooding due to snowmelt is
considered higher than normal in the Yampa/White, Upper Colorado
mainstem, Gunnison, Dolores and San Juan Basins of Colorado. For
eastern Utah including the Duchesne and Green River Basins the
spring runoff flood potential due to snowmelt is high. Currently
the Gunnison and Duchesne Rivers have the highest threat of
flooding.

Hydrologic models are currently forecasting above average peak 
flows across western Colorado during the snowmelt runoff period.
50% exceedance forecasts for many sites are projected to be above
bankfull levels, with 10% exceedance forecasts above flood stage
at quite a few of those locations.

Areas prone to flooding in the past may experience issues again
this year.

Spring temperatures affect the pattern of snowmelt runoff and
consequently the magnitude of peak flows. In normal
years...additional snowpack can accumulate in the mountains
through April. Heavy rainfall or unseasonably warm temperatures
during the snowmelt season can affect total runoff volume and peak
flow increasing the threat of flooding.

Observed Precipitation
----------------------

The water year started out dry for most locations in eastern Utah
and western Colorado. In late November storm systems started to
track over the region and bring much needed precipitation.
December storms brought precipitation averaging 140 to 180
percent of normal for the month across the region.

January was even more productive with the storms tapping into the very
moist atmospheric river of the Eastern Pacific...bringing well
above normal precipitation to western Colorado and eastern Utah.
Many Mountain sites across western Colorado and eastern Utah
recorded the highest monthly preciptation for January. Many of the
rest are in the top 5 years for January precipitation.

February continues the trend in eastern Utah with much above
average mountain precipitation. For western Colorado the above
average trend also continued although not as much as in January.

Observed Snowpack
-----------------

Basin snowpack conditions...percent of median...for the period
October 1 2016 to February 15 2017:
----------------------------------- 
In western Colorado...

Basin                   Snow Water
                        Equivalent
-----                   ----------
Yampa/White                124 
Upper Colorado hdwrs       140
Gunnison                   160 
Dolores/San Miguel         169 
San Juan                   145
Roaring Fork               164
Animas                     152

In eastern Utah...

Basin                   Snow Water
                        Equivalent
-----                   ----------
Upper Green                176
Duchesne                   189
Southeastern Utah          149
----------------------------------

Basin Conditions (% Of Average) As Of February 1:
   *NOTE: Snow Is % Of Median

 Subbasin                  Jan    Oct-Jan  Feb1  Jan
                          Precip  Precip   Snow* Strmflw
----------------------    ------  -------  ----  --------
   Upper Colorado           225    130     145     95
   Gunnison                 265    135     165    105
   Dolores/San Miguel       245    125     175    105
   San Juan                 260    140     160    145
   Yampa/White              185    120     130    105

Reservoir Storage (KAF) As Of January 31:
                            C U R R E N T   Y R     1981-2010
                          Eom      % Of     % Of    Jan 31        Usable
                          Storage  Average  Capacityavg Storage   Capacity
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Colorado - Lake Granb|    424.3|    120|     87||      352.2|     490.3| 
   Willow Ck - Willow Ck|      8.2|    104|     91||        8.0|       9.1| 
   Williams Fork - Willi|     74.4|    117|     77||       63.8|      96.9| 
   Muddy Ck - Wolford Mo|     50.7|    114|     77||       44.6|      66.0| 
   Blue - Dillon Res    |    224.0|    100|     88||      223.2|     254.0| 
   Blue - Green Mtn Res |     67.2|     83|     46||       81.1|     146.9| 
   Homestake Ck - Homest|  -9999.0|    -99|    -99||       31.9|      43.0| 
   Frying Pan - Ruedi Re|     67.8|     94|     67||       72.4|     102.0| 
   Plateau Ck - Vega Res|     11.9|     95|     36||       12.6|      32.9| 
   Taylor - Taylor Park |     69.5|    104|     65||       66.9|     106.2| 
   Gunnison - Blue Mesa |    586.6|    114|     71||      514.6|     829.5| 
   Gunnison - Morrow Poi|    111.7|    100|     95||      111.4|     117.0| 
   Gunnison - Crystal Re|     16.2|    105|     92||       15.3|      17.5| 
   Muddy Ck - Paonia Res|      1.6|     38|     10||        4.2|      16.7| 
   Uncompahgre - Ridgway|     63.8|     92|     77||       69.2|      83.0| 
   Dolores - Mcphee Res |    294.4|    109|     77||      270.9|     381.1| 
   Los Pinos - Vallecito|     84.3|    133|     67||       63.5|     125.4| 
   San Juan - Navajo Res|   1305.8|    100|     77||     1310.4|    1696.0| 
   Florida - Lemon Res, |     20.6|     99|     52||       20.9|      39.8| 
   Colorado - Lake Powel|  11359.3|     66|     47||    17338.2|   24322.0| 

Streamflow Forecasts:
Developed:                    Feb 1 2017 
Volume in 1000 acre-feet

Yampa/White Basins
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    A
VG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    -
--
Yampa River
  Stagecoach Rsvr, abv     Apr-Jul     23   100     34     26   18.1   16.6     
23
  Steamboat Springs        Apr-Jul    270   104    365    300    230    190    2
60
Elk River
  Milner, nr               Apr-Jul    375   117    475    415    335    270    3
20
Elkhead Ck
  Long Gulch, abv, Hayden  Apr-Jul     87   119    116     99     79     58     
73
Yampa River
  Maybell, nr              Apr-Jul   1030   110   1370   1130    880    730    9
35
Little Snake River
  Slater, nr               Apr-Jul    175   112    230    195    150    123    1
56
  Dixon, nr                Apr-Jul    360   104    530    445    305    240    3
45
  Lily, nr                 Apr-Jul    380   110    570    485    315    245    3
45
Yampa River
  Deerlodge Park           Apr-Jul   1400   113   1880   1550   1190    945   12
40
White River
  Meeker, nr               Apr-Jul    290   104    380    315    255    215    2
80
  Watson, nr               Apr-Jul    315   112    430    340    270    230    2
80

Upper Colorado, Above Gunnison Basin
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    A
VG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    -
--
Colorado River
  Lake Granby, Granby, nr  Apr-Jul    250   114    365    280    220    180    2
20
Willow Ck
  Willow Ck Res, Granby,   Apr-Jul     65   138    110     85     55     43     
47
Fraser River
  Winter Park              Apr-Jul     23   119     29     25   19.0   16.0   19
.4
Williams Fork River
  Williams Fork Res, Pars  Apr-Jul    115   120    165    130    105     85     
96
Blue River
  Dillon Res               Apr-Jul    195   120    255    215    175    140    1
63
  Green Mtn Res            Apr-Jul    330   120    450    360    295    240    2
75
Muddy Ck
  Wolford Mountain Reserv  Apr-Jul     62   115     90     75     50     35     
54
Colorado River
  Kremmling, nr            Apr-Jul   1040   121   1550   1210    950    750    8
60
Eagle River
  Gypsum, blo              Apr-Jul    370   110    525    410    320    260    3
35
Colorado River
  Dotsero, nr              Apr-Jul   1650   118   2370   1870   1480   1200   14
00
Frying Pan River
  Ruedi Res, Basalt, nr    Apr-Jul    160   115    220    175    130    105    1
39
Roaring Fork River
  Glenwood Springs         Apr-Jul    800   116   1070    860    725    600    6
90
Colorado River
  Glenwood Springs, blo    Apr-Jul   2450   116   3500   2700   2200   1840   21
10
  Cameo, nr                Apr-Jul   2780   118   4000   3000   2550   2100   23
60
Plateau Ck
  Cameo, nr                Apr-Jul    150   121    215    165    130    105    1
24

Gunnison Basin
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    A
VG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    -
--
Taylor River
  Taylor Park Res          Apr-Jul    128   129    165    145    115     99     
99
  Almont                   Apr-Jul    210   135    265    230    188    157    1
55
East River
  Almont                   Apr-Jul    245   135    315    260    220    185    1
82
Gunnison River
  Gunnison, nr             Apr-Jul    510   138    660    560    460    380    3
70
Tomichi Ck
  Gunnison                 Apr-Jul    105   142    170    120     92     75     
74
Lake Fork River
  Gateview                 Apr-Jul    150   122    195    167    128    109    1
23
Gunnison River
  Blue Mesa Res            Apr-Jul    925   137   1250    990    820    690    6
75
  Morrow Point Res         Apr-Jul   1020   138   1350   1090    915    785    7
40
  Crystal Res              Apr-Jul   1150   138   1480   1220   1050    915    8
35
Muddy Ck
  Paonia Res, Bardine, nr  Mar-Jun    118   123    167    133    110     95     
96
  Paonia Res, Bardine, nr  Apr-Jul    119   123    168    134    111     96     
97
NF Gunnison River
  Somerset, nr             Apr-Jul    355   120    480    380    325    285    2
95
Surface Ck
  Cedaredge                Apr-Jul     21   125     31     25   18.0   15.0   16
.8
Uncompahgre River
  Ridgway Res              Apr-Jul    118   117    160    126    110     85    1
01
  Colona                   Apr-Jul    158   115    225    171    142    114    1
37
  Delta                    Apr-Jul    133   118    200    145    120     82    1
13
Gunnison River
  Grand Junction, nr       Apr-Jul   1920   130   2650   1980   1720   1480   14
80

Dolores Basin      
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    A
VG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    -
--
Dolores River
  Dolores                  Apr-Jul    370   151    475    400    335    280    2
45
  Mcphee Res               Apr-Jul    440   149    570    480    395    320    2
95
San Miguel River
  Placerville, nr          Apr-Jul    155   121    210    173    142    109    1
28
Dolores River
  Cisco, nr                Apr-Jul    800   142   1110    900    720    550    5
65

Upper Colorado, Confluence
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    A
VG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    -
--
Colorado River
  Cisco, nr                Apr-Jul   5500   124   7550   6000   5000   4000   44
40

San Juan Basin
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    A
VG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    -
--
San Juan River
  Pagosa Springs           Apr-Jul    255   119    340    280    235    200    2
15
  Carracas, nr             Apr-Jul    455   120    620    510    405    355    3
80
Rio Blanco River
  Pagosa Springs, nr, Bla  Apr-Jul     67   124     87     78     59     54     
54
Navajo River
  Chromo, nr, Oso Div Dam  Apr-Jul     77   118    101     90     67     61     
65
Piedra River
  Arboles, nr              Apr-Jul    245   117    350    285    215    185    2
10
Los Pinos River
  Vallecito Res, Bayfield  Apr-Jul    235   121    300    260    210    180    1
94
San Juan River
  Navajo Res, Archuleta,   Apr-Jul    880   120   1230   1000    755    640    7
35
Florida River
  Lemon Res, Durango, nr   Apr-Jul     65   118     86     74     57     48     
55
Animas River
  Durango                  Apr-Jul    515   124    640    590    480    400    4
15
San Juan River
  Farmington               Apr-Jul   1360   124   1850   1520   1190    990   11
00
La Plata River
  Hesperus                 Apr-Jul     33   143     42     37     29     25     
23
San Juan River
  Bluff, nr                Apr-Jul   1370   125   1930   1580   1210   1030   11
00
Mancos River
  Mancos, nr               Apr-Jul     43   139     60     51     38     30     
31

Eastern Utah - Green River Basin
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    A
VG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    -
--
Green River
  Flaming Gorge Res, Flam  Apr-Jul   1650   168   2360   1830   1460   1240    9
80
White River
  Watson, nr               Apr-Jul    315   112    430    340    270    230    2
80
Big Brush Ck
  Vernal, nr, Red Fleet R  Apr-Jul     24   114     35     28   21.0   16.0     
21
Ashley Ck
  Vernal, nr               Apr-Jul     57   114     85     63     49     38     
50
Whiterocks River
  Whiterocks, nr           Apr-Jul     76   141    108     79     65     50     
54
Uinta River
  Neola, nr                Apr-Jul    113   153    151    119     99     76     
74
Duchesne River
  Myton                    Apr-Jul    550   167    815    640    520    410    3
30
  Randlett, nr             Apr-Jul    655   170   1020    765    595    460    3
85
Green River
  Green River, Ut          Apr-Jul   4070   138   6030   4520   3710   3130   29
60

San Juan Basin
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    A
VG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    -
--
San Juan River
  Bluff, nr                Apr-Jul   1370   125   1930   1580   1210   1030   11
00

Lake Powell
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    A
VG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    -
--
Colorado River
  Lake Powell, Glen Cyn D  Apr-Jul   9600   134  13500  10500   8300   6600   71
60

50% Most probable volume in 1000 acre-feet.
%AVG  Most probable volume in percent of the 1981-2010 average.
10% Volume that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.
30% Volume that has a 30 percent chance of being exceeded.
90% Volume that has a 90 percent chance of being exceeded.
70% Volume that has a 70 percent chance of being exceeded.
AVG   Average volume for the 1981-2010 period.

All forecast volumes reflect natural flow.  Actual observed flow may
be affected by upstream water management.

Climate Outlook
---------------

The Climate Prediction Center outlook for the three month period
of March through May 2017 indicates a chance of slightly higher
than normal temperatures and equal chances of either above,
below or normal precipitation.

It should be emphasized that snow accumulation and conditions could 
change before the runoff begins.

Changing hydrometeorological conditions can have a significant
impact on water supply forecasts. Additional products will be
issued as conditions evolve.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/gjt.
For detailed flow forecasts visit www.cbrfc.noaa.gov

Data from the Natural Resources Conservation Service...the
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center...and the Climate Prediction
Center were used to produce this product.

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