Weather for Mancos, Colorado
Lat: 37.35N, Lon: 108.29W
Wx Zone: COZ021
CWA Used: GJT
Colorado Drought MonitorThe Colorado Drought monitor is a subset of the United States Monitor, issued every Thursday morning, based on drought conditions the previous Tuesday. The map below shows the current drought level around the state, and the percent of Colorado land area in each drought level compared to the previous week. Read an explanation of the drought intensities and what they mean. |
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Colorado Hydrologic Information StatementNote that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS75 KGJT 071621
ESFGJT
COC007-029-033-037-045-051-053-067-077-081-083-085-091-097-103-
107-111-113-UTC009-019-037-047-211915-
WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
920 AM MST THU MAR 7 2013
...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN COLORADO
AND EASTERN UTAH NUMBER 2...
THIS 2013 SPRING RUNOFF OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH COVERING ALL OR PORTIONS OF THE YAMPA/WHITE...UPPER
COLORADO...DUCHESNE...GREEN...GUNNISON...DOLORES AND SAN JUAN RIVER
BASINS.
THE CURRENT VOLUME FORECASTS FOR THE APRIL THROUGH JULY 2013 RUNOFF
PERIOD ARE BELOW TO MUCH BELOW AVERAGE FOR ALL BASINS IN WESTERN
COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING 2013 FLOODING DUE TO SNOWMELT IS NOT HIGH
AT THIS TIME FOR ALL THE BASINS IN WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN
UTAH.
IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THESE ARE EARLY ESTIMATES AND THERE IS
STILL TIME FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION THIS SEASON. SPRING TEMPERATURES
AFFECT THE PATTERN OF SNOWMELT RUNOFF AND CONSEQUENTLY THE MAGNITUDE
OF PEAK FLOWS. IN NORMAL YEARS...ADDITIONAL SNOWPACK CAN ACCUMULATE
IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH APRIL. HEAVY RAINFALL OR UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES DURING THE SNOW MELT SEASON CAN AFFECT TOTAL RUNOFF
VOLUME AND INCREASE THE FLOOD THREAT.
OBSERVED PRECIPITATION
----------------------
FEBRUARY AVERAGE BASIN PRECIPITATION WAS BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
OVER EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS.
NORTHERN MOFFAT COUNTY COLORADO HAD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
THE MONTH. A SMALL AREA IN THE WESTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS RECEIVED
NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THERE ARE A FEW SITES WITHIN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BASINS THAT HAVE RECEIVED NEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION BUT THIS IS VERY LOCALIZED.
THE SNOWPACK HAS BEEN BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE
RIVER BASINS IN EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. BASIN AVERAGE
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES RANGE FROM 74 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN THE
UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN TO 86 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH MOUNTAINS AS OF EARLY MARCH.
SO FAR FOR THE 2013 WATER YEAR FROM OCTOBER THROUGH JANUARY ALL
BASINS IN EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO HAVE RECEIVED BELOW
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION. OCTOBER AND NOVEMBER WERE EXTREMELY DRY AND
WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR EACH MONTH. THE NORTHERN BASINS FROM THE
COLORADO RIVER AND THE UPPER GUNNISON RIVER WERE BELOW NORMAL FOR
JANUARY WITH ABOVE MONTHLY NORMALS VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN BASINS.
DECEMBER PRECIPITATION WAS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR ALL BASINS EXCEPT FOR
THE FAR UPPER HEADWATERS OF THE GUNNISON AND SAN JUAN RIVERS WHICH
WERE BELOW NORMAL. THE DECEMBER VALUES HELPED BUT DID NOT MAKE UP
FOR THE PREVIOUS TWO MONTHS.
BASIN CONDITIONS...PERCENT OF MEDIAN...FOR THE PERIOD
OCTOBER 1 2012 TO MARCH 6 2013:
----------------------------------
IN WESTERN COLORADO...
BASIN SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT
----- ----------
YAMPA/WHITE 79
UPPER COLORADO HDWRS 74
ROARING FORK 78
GUNNISON 79
DOLORES/SAN MIGUEL 82
SAN JUAN 79
ANIMAS 82
IN EASTERN UTAH...
BASIN SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT
----- ----------
GREEN 81
DUCHESNE 80
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH 87
RESERVOIR STORAGE (KAF) AS OF FEBRUARY 28:
RESERVOIR EOM % OF % OF FEB 28 USABLE
STORAGE AVERAGE CAPACITY AVG STORAGE CAPACITY
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
COLORADO - LAKE GRANB| 222.2| 67| 45|| 431.8| 130
WILLOW CK - WILLOW CK| 8.3| 101| 91|| 9.1| 110
WILLIAMS FORK - WILLI| 42.1| 67| 43|| 80.5| 129
MUDDY CK - WOLFORD MO| 23.9| 54| 36|| 58.1| 131
BLUE - DILLON RES | 166.9| 76| 66|| 244.1| 111
BLUE - GREEN MTN RES | 60.6| 82| 41|| 82.4| 112
HOMESTAKE CK - HOMEST| -9999.0| -99| -99|| 0.6| 2
FRYING PAN - RUEDI RE| 62.1| 91| 61|| 73.1| 108
PLATEAU CK - VEGA RES| 8.4| 63| 25|| 17.4| 132
TAYLOR - TAYLOR PARK | 56.5| 86| 53|| 65.6| 100
GUNNISON - BLUE MESA | 329.3| 68| 40|| 533.0| 111
GUNNISON - MORROW POI| 104.7| 94| 89|| 113.2| 102
GUNNISON - CRYSTAL RE| 14.8| 94| 85|| 16.6| 106
MUDDY CK - PAONIA RES| 1.4| 30| 8|| 0.6| 12
UNCOMPAHGRE - RIDGWAY| 54.8| 79| 66|| 68.2| 98
DOLORES - MCPHEE RES | 189.0| 69| 50|| 287.8| 106
LOS PINOS - VALLECITO| 45.8| 72| 37|| 76.4| 120
SAN JUAN - NAVAJO RES| 937.6| 73| 55|| 1284.9| 99
FLORIDA - LEMON RES, | 7.8| 37| 20|| 14.0| 67
COLORADO - LAKE POWEL| 11890.9| 70| 49|| 15452.6| 91
----------------------------------------------------
SNOWMELT SEASON STREAMFLOW FORECASTS AS OF MARCH 1 2013 FOR THE
PERIOD APRIL TO JULY 2013 UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED
STREAMFLOW FORECASTS:
DEVELOPED: MAR 1 2013
YAMPA/WHITE BASINS
PERIOD MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
------ ---- --- ---- ---- ---
YAMPA RIVER
STAGECOACH RSVR, ABV APR-JUL 15.4 67 22 8.8 23
STEAMBOAT SPRINGS APR-JUL 167 64 240 115 260
ELK RIVER
MILNER, NR APR-JUL 215 67 305 144 320
ELKHEAD CK
LONG GULCH, ABV, HAYDEN, NR APR-JUL 41 56 60 20 73
YAMPA RIVER
MAYBELL, NR APR-JUL 565 60 890 340 935
LITTLE SNAKE RIVER
SLATER, NR APR-JUL 90 58 133 54 156
SAVERY, NR APR-JUL 171 50 265 95 345
LILY, NR APR-JUL 175 51 275 92 345
WHITE RIVER
MEEKER, NR APR-JUL 163 58 240 110 280
WATSON, NR APR-JUL 165 59 265 100 280
UPPER COLORADO, ABOVE GUNNISON BASIN
PERIOD MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
------ ---- --- ---- ---- ---
COLORADO RIVER
LAKE GRANBY, GRANBY, NR APR-JUL 135 61 192 85 220
WILLOW CK
WILLOW CK RES, GRANBY, NR APR-JUL 33 70 53 18.0 47
FRASER RIVER
WINTER PARK APR-JUL 12.5 64 17.0 8.5 19.4
WILLIAMS FORK RIVER
WILLIAMS FORK RES, PARSHALL, N APR-JUL 63 66 91 45 96
BLUE RIVER
DILLON RES APR-JUL 100 61 145 70 163
GREEN MTN RES APR-JUL 172 63 245 118 275
MUDDY CK
WOLFORD MOUNTAIN RESERVOIR APR-JUL 34 63 54 17.5 54
COLORADO RIVER
KREMMLING, NR APR-JUL 520 60 750 340 860
EAGLE RIVER
GYPSUM, BLO APR-JUL 190 57 315 120 335
COLORADO RIVER
DOTSERO, NR APR-JUL 820 59 1230 565 1400
FRYING PAN RIVER
RUEDI RES, BASALT, NR APR-JUL 78 56 120 50 139
ROARING FORK RIVER
GLENWOOD SPRINGS APR-JUL 400 58 605 280 690
COLORADO RIVER
GLENWOOD SPRINGS, BLO APR-JUL 1260 60 1920 885 2110
CAMEO, NR APR-JUL 1350 57 2130 975 2360
PLATEAU CK
CAMEO, NR APR-JUL 70 56 116 40 124
GUNNISON BASIN
PERIOD MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
------ ---- --- ---- ---- ---
TAYLOR RIVER
TAYLOR PARK RES APR-JUL 55 56 80 40 99
ALMONT APR-JUL 80 52 130 50 155
EAST RIVER
ALMONT APR-JUL 100 55 160 60 182
GUNNISON RIVER
GUNNISON, NR APR-JUL 190 51 295 145 370
TOMICHI CK
GUNNISON APR-JUL 35 47 71 21 74
LAKE FORK RIVER
GATEVIEW APR-JUL 78 63 125 54 123
GUNNISON RIVER
BLUE MESA RES APR-JUL 360 53 580 270 675
MORROW POINT RES APR-JUL 390 53 610 300 740
CRYSTAL RES APR-JUL 430 51 650 340 835
MUDDY CK
PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR MAR-JUN 53 55 87 37 96
PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR APR-JUL 54 56 90 38 97
NF GUNNISON RIVER
SOMERSET, NR APR-JUL 185 63 300 130 295
SURFACE CK
CEDAREDGE APR-JUL 11.0 65 17.7 4.3 16.8
UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER
RIDGWAY RES APR-JUL 67 66 106 40 101
COLONA APR-JUL 76 55 138 55 137
DELTA APR-JUL 55 49 125 35 113
GUNNISON RIVER
GRAND JUNCTION, NR APR-JUL 790 53 1320 620 1480
DOLORES BASIN
PERIOD MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
------ ---- --- ---- ---- ---
DOLORES RIVER
DOLORES APR-JUL 150 61 240 80 245
MCPHEE RES APR-JUL 165 56 320 95 295
SAN MIGUEL RIVER
PLACERVILLE, NR APR-JUL 85 66 125 60 128
DOLORES RIVER
CISCO, NR APR-JUL 310 55 560 190 565
UPPER COLORADO, CONFLUENCE
PERIOD MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
------ ---- --- ---- ---- ---
COLORADO RIVER
CISCO, NR APR-JUL 2420 55 3850 1680 4440
SAN JUAN BASIN
PERIOD MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
------ ---- --- ---- ---- ---
SAN JUAN RIVER
PAGOSA SPRINGS APR-JUL 150 70 230 90 215
CARRACAS, NR APR-JUL 250 66 390 160 380
RIO BLANCO RIVER
PAGOSA SPRINGS, NR, BLANCO DAM APR-JUL 38 70 51 22 54
NAVAJO RIVER
CHROMO, NR, OSO DIV DAM, BLO APR-JUL 45 69 71 19.3 65
PIEDRA RIVER
ARBOLES, NR APR-JUL 150 71 230 80 210
LOS PINOS RIVER
VALLECITO RES, BAYFIELD, NR APR-JUL 140 72 195 80 194
SAN JUAN RIVER
NAVAJO RES, ARCHULETA, NR APR-JUL 490 67 800 280 735
FLORIDA RIVER
LEMON RES, DURANGO, NR APR-JUL 40 73 60 20 55
ANIMAS RIVER
DURANGO APR-JUL 280 67 400 160 415
SAN JUAN RIVER
FARMINGTON APR-JUL 700 64 1080 370 1100
LA PLATA RIVER
HESPERUS APR-JUL 15.0 65 25 8.0 23
SAN JUAN RIVER
BLUFF, NR APR-JUL 700 64 1100 350 1100
MANCOS RIVER
MANCOS, NR APR-JUL 20 65 33 11.0 31
EASTERN UTAH - GREEN RIVER BASIN
PERIOD MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
------ ---- --- ---- ---- ---
GREEN RIVER
FLAMING GORGE RES, FLAMING GOR APR-JUL 550 56 950 290 980
BIG BRUSH CK
VERNAL, NR, RED FLEET RES, ABV APR-JUL 13.4 64 23 8.7 21
ASHLEY CK
VERNAL, NR APR-JUL 30 60 53 19.0 50
WHITEROCKS RIVER
WHITEROCKS, NR APR-JUL 34 63 52 21 54
DUCHESNE RIVER
RANDLETT, NR APR-JUL 170 44 285 78 385
LAKE POWELL
PERIOD MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
------ ---- --- ---- ---- ---
COLORADO RIVER
LAKE POWELL, GLEN CYN DAM, AT APR-JUL 3400 47 5280 1740 7160
MP MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN 1000 ACRE-FEET.
MP% MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN PERCENT OF THE 1981-2010 AVERAGE.
RMAX VOLUME THAT HAS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
RMIN VOLUME THAT HAS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
AVG AVERAGE VOLUME FOR THE 1981-2010 PERIOD.
ALL FORECAST VOLUMES REFLECT NATURAL FLOW. ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW MAY
BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT.
OFFICIAL VOLUME FORECASTS WILL BE UPDATED AT THE BEGINNING OF APRIL.
CLIMATE OUTLOOK:
---------------
FOR THE REST OF MARCH THE OUTLOOK IS FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND EQUAL CHANCES FOR EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK FOR THE
THREE MONTH PERIOD FROM MARCH THROUGH MAY INDICATES INCREASED
PROBABILITY FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. CURRENTLY THE ENSO IS NEUTRAL. THERE IS LITTLE
CORRELATION BETWEEN A NEUTRAL PATTERN AND WEATHER TRENDS OVER
WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH.
IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT IT IS EARLY IN THE SNOW ACCUMULATION
SEASON AND CONDITIONS COULD CHANGE BEFORE THE RUNOFF BEGINS.
CHANGING HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS. ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED
AS CONDITIONS EVOLVE.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WEATHER.GOV/GJT.
FOR DETAILED PEAK FLOW FORECASTS VISIT
WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCT/PEAK/PEAK.CGI
DATA FROM THE NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE...THE COLORADO
BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER...AND THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
WERE USED TO PRODUCE THIS PRODUCT.
$$
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