Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS73 KLMK 161506
ESFLMK
INC019-025-037-043-061-077-117-123-143-175-KYC001-003-005-009-
017-021-027-029-031-045-049-053-057-073-079-085-087-091-093-103-
111-123-137-141-151-155-163-167-169-171-179-181-183-185-209-211-
213-215-217-223-229-239-161200-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1050 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2008
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE ENABLES THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER
OUTLOOKS...
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE
RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
EXAMPLE: THE KENTUCKY RIVER AT FRANKFORT LOCK HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 31
FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 25 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER WILL
RISE ABOVE 15.4 FEET.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD 5/18/2008 - 8/16/2008
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- ---
OHIO RIVER
CLIFTY CREEK 451 425.7 429.4 434.3 439.5 443.5 449.0
MCALPINE UPPER 23 12.5 12.7 15.6 17.8 21.0 25.8
MCALPINE LOWER 55 25.0 31.3 38.8 46.3 51.3 56.6
CANNELTON LOCK 42 21.7 26.3 33.0 39.5 41.6 44.1
TELL CITY 38 21.2 25.2 31.9 38.7 41.1 43.5
KENTUCKY RIVER
FORD LOCK 26 12.8 14.3 16.8 18.4 20.1 21.9
HIGH BRIDGE LOCK 30 12.8 14.6 17.2 19.4 22.3 25.5
FRANKFORT LOCK 31 9.3 10.5 12.5 15.4 21.6 25.8
SALT RIVER
SHEPHERDSVILLE 32 3.6 4.5 6.0 9.3 15.6 20.7
ROLLING FORK RIVER
BOSTON 35 12.4 15.3 22.6 30.9 36.3 39.4
MUSCATATUCK RIVER
DEPUTY 20 6.8 9.6 12.9 19.1 22.1 24.4
GREEN RIVER
MUNFORDVILLE 28 5.6 7.1 10.5 14.6 28.6 32.2
BROWNSVILLE 18 10.7 11.3 12.9 14.0 19.3 21.0
WOODBURY 33 13.1 15.4 20.6 32.4 37.0 43.9
ROCHESTER 17 10.4 11.6 13.1 17.1 19.5 23.3
BARREN RIVER
BOWLING GREEN 28 7.5 8.9 11.4 18.3 22.9 28.0
ROUGH RIVER
DUNDEE 25 10.1 13.1 17.1 20.4 23.3 28.3
FOR THE MONTH OF MAY...PRECIPITATION IS RUNNING ABOUT TWO TO THREE
INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS AROUND TWO AN A HALF
INCHES.
THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK...CALLS FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE ABOVE NORMAL.
NORMAL PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME OF YEAR IS ABOUT SIX TENTHS OF AN
INCH.
THE 90 DAY OUTLOOK...CALLS FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE NORMAL.
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...
SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...
THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS).
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/LMK (ALL LOWER CASE)
$$
CMC
