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Lawrenceville Weather

Weather for Limon, Colorado

Lat: 39.27N, Lon: 103.69W
Wx Zone: COZ046 CWA Used: BOU

Colorado Drought Monitor

The Colorado Drought monitor is a subset of the United States Monitor, issued every Thursday morning, based on drought conditions the previous Tuesday. The map below shows the current drought level around the state, and the percent of Colorado land area in each drought level compared to the previous week.

Read an explanation of the drought intensities and what they mean.

Colorado Drought Monitor

Colorado Hydrologic Information Statement

Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.

913 
FGUS75 KBOU 251910
ESFBOU
COC001-031-035-057-059-069-087-115-123-152359-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
109 PM MDT THU AUG 25 2016

In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stage
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is greater than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.

...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                      Valid Period: 08/27/2016  - 11/25/2016        
           
                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:South Platte River
South Platte         7.0    9.0   11.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Denver              11.0   12.5   14.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Henderson           10.0   11.0   15.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Kersey              10.0   11.5   12.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Weldona             10.0   11.0   13.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Balzac              10.0   11.0   13.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Julesburg           10.0   11.0   12.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Plum Creek
Sedalia              8.0   10.0   12.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Bear Creek
Morrison             9.0   10.0   11.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Sheridan             8.0   10.0   11.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Clear Creek
Golden              10.0   13.0   14.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Derby                9.0   10.5   11.5 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:N Fk Big Thompson River
Drake                6.0    7.0    8.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cache la Poudre River
Fort Collins 9NW     7.5    9.0   10.5 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Fort Collins        10.5   11.5   13.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Greeley              8.0    9.5   11.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:North Platte River
Northgate            8.0    9.5   11.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...                    
                                 
                             Chance of Exceeding Stages                         
        
                                at Specific Locations
                        Valid Period: 08/27/2016  - 11/25/2016   
                          
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:South Platte River
South Platte          3.5    3.6    3.6    3.6    3.6    3.8    4.0
Denver                3.4    3.6    3.7    4.1    4.3    5.0    5.3
Henderson             4.9    5.0    5.3    5.7    6.2    7.0    7.5
Kersey                4.1    4.1    4.3    4.7    5.6    6.8    7.1
Weldona               2.9    3.0    3.2    3.6    4.4    5.6    6.0
Balzac                2.4    2.4    2.9    3.3    4.2    5.3    5.8
Julesburg             2.8    3.0    3.9    4.4    5.2    5.9    6.2
:Plum Creek
Sedalia               4.0    4.0    4.1    4.2    4.4    4.6    5.0
:Bear Creek
Morrison              6.2    6.2    6.3    6.3    6.5    6.5    6.6
Sheridan              2.6    2.7    2.8    2.9    3.0    3.4    3.5
:Clear Creek
Golden                4.3    4.3    4.4    4.5    4.6    4.9    5.1
Derby                 2.3    2.3    2.5    2.7    2.9    3.2    3.4
:N Fk Big Thompson River
Drake                 4.0    4.0    4.0    4.0    4.0    4.2    4.3
:Cache la Poudre River
Fort Collins 9NW      3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.5    3.6    3.8
Fort Collins          1.7    1.7    1.7    1.9    2.2    2.7    3.1
Greeley               2.3    2.3    2.4    2.8    3.6    4.2    4.5
:North Platte River
Northgate             2.5    2.5    2.6    2.7    2.8    3.0    3.2

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the 
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for
the valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                        Valid Period: 08/27/2016  - 11/25/2016 
                          
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:South Platte River
South Platte          2.5    2.3    2.2    2.2    2.1    2.1    2.1
Denver                2.8    2.8    2.8    2.7    2.7    2.7    2.7
Henderson             2.5    2.4    2.4    2.4    2.4    2.4    2.4
Kersey                2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8
Weldona               2.5    2.5    2.5    2.5    2.5    2.5    2.5
Balzac                1.9    1.8    1.8    1.8    1.8    1.8    1.8
Julesburg             1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0
:Plum Creek
Sedalia               3.7    3.7    3.6    3.6    3.6    3.6    3.6
:Bear Creek
Morrison              6.1    6.1    6.1    6.1    6.1    6.1    6.1
Sheridan              2.4    2.4    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3
:Clear Creek
Golden                4.0    4.0    4.0    4.0    4.0    3.9    3.9
Derby                 1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0
:N Fk Big Thompson River
Drake                 3.8    3.8    3.8    3.8    3.8    3.8    3.8
:Cache la Poudre River
Fort Collins 9NW      2.9    2.9    2.9    2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8
Fort Collins          0.6    0.5    0.4    0.4    0.4    0.4    0.4
Greeley               1.4    1.4    1.4    1.4    1.4    1.4    1.4
:North Platte River
Northgate             2.4    2.4    2.4    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range
of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range 
planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic
forecasts are part of the National Weather Service's Advanced
Hydrologic Prediction Service.

This information is also available in graphical format on the
internet at weather.gov/bou.

The next outlook will be issued toward the end of September.

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