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Lawrenceville Weather

Weather for Lima, Ohio

Lat: 40.74N, Lon: 84.11W
Wx Zone: OHZ025 CWA Used: IWX

Ohio Drought Monitor

The Ohio Drought monitor is a subset of the United States Monitor, issued every Thursday morning, based on drought conditions the previous Tuesday. The map below shows the current drought level around the state, and the percent of Ohio land area in each drought level compared to the previous week.

Read an explanation of the drought intensities and what they mean.

Ohio Drought Monitor

Ohio Hydrologic Information Statement

Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.

000
FGUS73 KIWX 170314
ESFIWX

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
600 PM EST THU FEB 16 2017

...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service 90 Day Probabilistic 
Forecast...

This is the 90 day probabilistic forecast for locations along the
Kankakee River Basin in northern Indiana and for the Saint
Joseph River Basin in northern Indiana and southern Michigan.

In the table below the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
chance the river could rise to or above the listed stage levels in
the next 90 days.

For example, the Kankakee River at Davis, Indiana has a flood stage 
of 10 feet. In the next 90 days there is a 10 percent chance the 
river will rise to or above 11.5 feet.

The St. Joseph River at South Bend, Indiana has a flood stage of 
5.5 feet. In the next 90 days there is a 25 percent chance the 
river will rise to or above 5.4 feet. 

Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations 
...Valid February 19 2017 - May 20 2017... 

Kankakee River Basin...
Location         FS(ft)   95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5% 
 
Kankakee River
Davis IN            10    8.3  8.7  9.3 10.0 10.8 11.5 12.4  

Yellow River
Plymouth IN         13    7.3  8.3  8.7 10.3 11.8 12.7 13.1  
Knox IN             10    6.5  6.9  7.3  8.0  8.8  9.5  9.9  

Saint Joseph River Michigan Basin...
Location         FS(ft)   95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5% 
 
Saint Joseph River Michigan 
Three Rivers MI      7    5.6  5.8  6.2  6.7  7.5  8.4  9.5 
Mottville MI         8    5.2  5.2  5.7  6.1  6.8  7.7  8.8  
Elkhart IN          24   21.1 21.3 21.6 22.2 23.2 24.5 25.8  
South Bend IN       5.5   2.7  3.0  3.5  4.2  5.4  7.0  8.6 
Niles MI            11    7.6  7.9  8.4  9.2 10.4 11.8 13.2 

Elkhart River 
Goshen IN            7     3.7  4.0  4.4  5.0  6.0 7.4  8.1 
Cosperville IN       6     5.4  5.6  5.8  6.1  6.3  6.7 7.5  

This long-range probabilistic outlook contains forecast values that 
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years 
of climatological data including current conditions of the river, 
soil moisture, snow melt and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of 
temperature and precipitation. By providing the complete range of 
probabilities, the level of risk associated with long range planning 
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are a 
part of NOAA National Weather Services Advanced Hydrologic 
Prediction Service.

Additional supportive data and explanations are available on AHPS at 
www.weather.gov/iwx, under Rivers and Lakes.

...Snow Cover/Soil Conditions... 

Snow cover was absent across the Kankakee and St. Joseph Michigan 
river basins. Soil conditions remain thawed across the region as 
well. With above normal temperatures in the near term, the ground 
will remain thawed with no snow cover. This will allow for greater 
evaporation and surface water infiltration. Short term crop moisture 
indices were near normal to abnormally moist, with the wettest 
regions across southwest Lower Michigan. 

...Weather Outlook... 

The Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day outlook indicates that 
there is a 40 to 50 percent, or elevated, chance for above normal 
precipitation and a 60 to 70 percent, or high, chance that 
temperatures will be above normal values through the period. The CPC 
experimental week 3 through 4 outlook indicates that there no 
significant signal with respect to temperatures with equal chances 
for above, below and near normal temperatures. There is a signal 
favoring below normal normal precipitation for the region during 
this timeframe. The CPC three month outlook for the period March 
through May indicates elevated chances for above normal temperatures 
and equal chance for above, below and near normal precipitation 
across the region.

...River Conditions... 

Area rivers were experiencing near to above average streamflow. Most 
points in the Kankakee and St. Joseph Michigan river basins are 
experiencing streamflow in the 50th to 80th percentile. All of the 
area stream and waterways are open with no ice observed. The overall 
potential for significant ice formation, that could lead to ice jams 
and exacerbated flooding conditions, is near zero as temperatures 
will warm considerably in the near term.

...Overall Flood Risk... 

Typical minor flooding, especially in more flood prone areas, 
remains possible and will be highly dependent upon future 
precipitation events. Given all the factors such as initial moderate 
to high streamflow conditions, lack of snow water content, and no 
significant signal for extraordinary precipitation over the next 
couple of weeks, the overall risk for flooding through the spring is 
near normal at this time.

...Flood Terminology... 

The term minor flooding is used to indicate minimal or no property 
damage. However, some public inconvenience is possible.

The term moderate flooding is used to indicate the inundation of 
secondary roads. Transfer to a higher elevation may be necessary to 
save property.

The term major flooding is used to indicate extensive inundation and 
property damage, usually characterized by the evacuation of people 
and livestock and the closure of both primary and secondary roads.

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PBM