Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
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FGUS71 KILN 051617
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INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-061615-
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1110 AM EST FRI MAR 5 2010
...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK NUMBER 5...
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING MARCH 19 2010
IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR AREAS OF THE LICKING BASIN OF OHIO...AS WELL
AS THE UPPER SCIOTO AND UPPER GREAT MIAMI BASINS. FLOOD
POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL FOR ALL OTHER TRIBUTARIES.
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL REMAINS HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR THE MAINSTEM OHIO
RIVER...WITH A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK REMAINING ACROSS WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA.
WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOSS OF LOCAL SNOWPACK IN KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN
OHIO AND SOUTHEAST INDIANA...THE FLOOD THREAT FOR TRIBUTARIES IN
THESE AREAS HAS BEEN REDUCED TO NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR MID MARCH.
THIS IS A BIWEEKLY FLOOD OUTLOOK ISSUED BY LOCAL NWS OFFICES IN
WINTER AND EARLY SPRING TO SUMMARIZE BASIN CONDITIONS AND TO ASSESS
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON CURRENT AND
FORECAST HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS.
THE FACTORS CONSIDERED WHEN DETERMINING FLOOD POTENTIAL INCLUDE
CURRENT STREAMFLOW AND RESERVOIR LEVELS COMPARED TO NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD...WATER EQUIVALENT IN ANY SNOW PACK...SOIL MOISTURE AND
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION.
...SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...
SINCE THE LAST OUTLOOK ON FEBRUARY 19...MUCH OF THE AREA SNOW COVER
HAS BEEN GREATLY REDUCED. A SNOW PACK OF 3 TO 6 INCHES REMAINS IN
THE UPPER SCIOTO AND LICKING BASINS OF OHIO. AS MUCH AS 1.5
INCHES OF SNOW WATER REMAINS IN THIS SNOWPACK. IN THE UPPER GREAT
MIAMI BASIN...1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW REMAINS ON THE GROUND...
CONTAINING UP TO AN INCH OF WATER EQUIVALENT.
...STREAMFLOW...
WITH THE SNOWMELT...STREAMFLOW VALUES WHICH HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN
BELOW NORMAL HAVE NOW BEEN RAISED TO MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR MID
MARCH THROUGH THE REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION ARE IN SOME AREAS OF
THE MIDDLE GREAT MIAMI BASIN. THIS MEANS THAT STREAMFLOW RANGES FROM
ABOUT 25 TO 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL BASED ON HISTORICAL DATA FROM THE
US GEOLOGICAL SURVEY. THE OHIO RIVER ITSELF IS STILL RUNNING BELOW
NORMAL FOR MID MARCH...AT ABOUT 40 TO 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
...ICE...
ONLY LIGHT ICE ALONG STREAM BANKS WAS APPARENT ON AREA TRIBUTARIES.
...SOIL MOISTURE...
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
EARLY MARCH. WHILE SOIL NEAR THE SURFACE IS EITHER FROZEN OR NEARLY
SATURATED...SUBSOIL CONDITIONS ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR MOISTURE.
...RESERVOIR CAPACITY...
FLOOD CONTROL RESERVOIRS ARE NEAR WINTER POOL FLOOD CONTROL
ELEVATIONS...MAXIMIZING THEIR ABILITY TO HELP MITIGATE FLOOD
POTENTIAL.
...WEATHER TRENDS AND PRECIPITATION...
RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR LEADING TO FLOODING. HEAVY OR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAN CAUSE FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR EVEN
WHERE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS BELOW NORMAL.
AT TIME OF ISSUANCE...LITTLE TO NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL POSSIBLY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK OF MARCH 8.
EARLY INDICATORS ARE THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL FALL MUCH TO
THE SOUTH OF THE REGION...WITH LOCAL RAINFALL ONLY EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN MODERATE RISES ALONG AREA TRIBUTARIES. THE EXPECTATION
FOR RISES TO FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ARE
LOW...WITH A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR RISES ON AND AFTER MARCH
10.
FOR WEEK TWO OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD...BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AREA. NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FOR THE PERIOD IS ABOUT 0.7" TO 0.8".
REAL TIME RIVER INFORMATION AND FORECASTS FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
ALONG RIVERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO...NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND
SOUTHEAST INDIANA CAN BE FOUND AT (ALL IN LOWERCASE):
WEATHER.GOV/ILN/RIVERS.
THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED MARCH 19, 2010.
$$
