Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS75 KGJT 121850 CCA
ESFGJT
COC007-029-033-037-045-051-053-067-077-081-083-085-091-097-103-107-113-
UTC009-019-013-037-047-061048-
WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
348 PM MST FRI MAR 5 2010
CORRECTED FOR LINE WRAP, PRODUCT NAME AND HEADLINE
...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...
THE 2010 SPRING RUNOFF FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO SNOWMELT CONTINUES TO BE LOW FOR
MOST OF WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH. PEAK SPRING FLOWS DUE TO SNOWMELT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA.
IN GENERAL...RUNOFF VOLUME FROM SNOWMELT LATER THIS SPRING AND EARLY
THIS SUMMER IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 70-90% OF NORMAL OVER MUCH OF
THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COLORADO. RUNOFF IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 90-110% OF NORMAL IN THE
UPPER SAN JUAN RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. APRIL THROUGH JULY
UNREGULATED INFLOW INTO LAKE POWELL IS EXPECTED TO BE 65-70% OF
NORMAL.
IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT IN A NORMAL YEAR SNOW ACCUMULATES IN THE
MOUNTAINS WELL INTO APRIL. LATE SEASON SNOW AND/OR RAIN STORMS OR UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES CAN AFFECT TOTAL RUNOFF VOLUME AND PEAK FLOWS POTENTIALLY
INCREASING FLOOD THREAT.
CURRENT PRECIPITATION...SNOWPACK...AND RESERVOIR LEVELS ALONG
WITH SPECIFIC RUNOFF VOLUME FORECASTS ARE BELOW:
OBSERVED PRECIPITATION
----------------------
SNOWPACK AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE 2010 WATER YEAR CONTINUE TO BE
BELOW NORMAL IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN COLORADO
AND THE EASTERN UINTAH MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEASTERN UTAH. HOWEVER...IN THE
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO AND THE PLATEAU LANDS OF
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH...SNOWPACK AND PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH SNOWPACK IN THE ABAJO MOUNTAINS AND THE
WESTERN TAVAPUTS OVER 130% OF NORMAL.
BASIN AVERAGED PRECIPITATION PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD
OCTOBER 1 2009 TO MARCH 5 2010
-----------------------------------------------------------
COLORADO RIVER BASIN ABOVE LAKE POWELL 82
IN WESTERN COLORADO...
BASIN PRECIPITATION AVERAGE
PERCENT NORMAL DEPARTURE(IN)
----- -------------- -------------
YAMPA/WHITE 80 -4.1
UPPER COLORADO HEADWATERS 77 -3.4
GUNNISON 93 -1.3
DOLORES/SAN MIGUEL 92 -1.3
SAN JUAN HEADWATERS 102 +0.3
ANIMAS 93 -1.3
IN EASTERN UTAH...
BASIN PRECIPITATION AVERAGE
PERCENT NORMAL DEPARTURE(IN)
----- ------------- -------------
DUCHESNE 66 -4.9
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH 108 +1.3
BASIN AVERAGED SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR
THE PERIOD OCTOBER 1 2009 TO MARCH 5 2010
-----------------------------------------------------------
COLORADO RIVER BASIN ABOVE LAKE POWELL 81
IN WESTERN COLORADO...
BASIN SWE PERCENT OF NORMAL
----- ---------------------
YAMPA/WHITE 75
UPPER COLORADO HEADWATERS 76
GUNNISON 94
DOLORES/SAN MIGUEL 101
SAN JUAN HEADWATERS 104
ANIMAS 95
IN EASTERN UTAH...
BASIN SWE PERCENT OF NORMAL
----- ---------------------
DUCHESNE 69
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH 137
RESERVOIR STORAGE AS OF FEBRUARY 28 2010:
----------------------------------------
RESERVOIR USABLE EOM USABLE % OF
CAPACITY CONTENTS CAPACITY
(KAF) (KAF)
----------------------------------------------------------
COLORADO - LAKE GRANB| 490.3| 329.3| 67|
WILLOW CK - WILLOW CK| 9.1| 7.1| 77|
WILLIAMS FORK - WILLI| 96.9| 75.3| 78|
MUDDY CK - WOLFORD MO| 66.0| 51.6| 78|
BLUE - DILLON RES | 254.0| 240.9| 95|
BLUE - GREEN MTN RES | 146.9| 78.0| 53|
HOMESTAKE CK - HOMEST| 43.0| 21.8| 51|
FRYING PAN - RUEDI RE| 102.0| 68.4| 67|
PLATEAU CK - VEGA RES| 32.9| 12.6| 38|
TAYLOR - TAYLOR PARK | 106.2| 64.5| 61|
GUNNISON - BLUE MESA | 829.5| 545.5| 66|
GUNNISON - MORROW POI| 117.0| 106.8| 91|
GUNNISON - CRYSTAL RE| 17.5| 16.6| 94|
MUDDY CK - PAONIA RES| 18.5| 1.1| 6|
UNCOMPAHGRE - RIDGWAY| 83.2| 65.6| 79|
DOLORES - MCPHEE RES | 381.1| 252.5| 66|
LOS PINOS - VALLECITO| 125.4| 46.5| 37|
SAN JUAN - NAVAJO RES| 1701.3| 1214.3| 71|
FLORIDA - LEMON RES, | 39.8| 9.3| 23|
COLORADO - LAKE POWEL| 24322.0| 13780.2| 57|
CLIMATE OUTLOOK
---------------
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK FOR THE THREE MONTH PERIOD FROM MARCH
THROUGH MAY INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER NORTHEASTERN UTAH WITH EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. THE MARCH THROUGH APRIL OUTLOOK CALLS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN.
----------------------------------------------------
CBRFC 2010 SNOWMELT SEASON STREAMFLOW FORECASTS AS OF MARCH 3 2010
FOR THE PERIOD APRIL TO JULY UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED
MP MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN 1000 ACRE-FEET (KAF).
MP% MOST PROBABLE VOLUME IN PERCENT OF THE 1971-2000 AVERAGE.
RMAX VOLUME THAT HAS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
RMIN VOLUME THAT HAS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED.
AVG AVERAGE VOLUME FOR THE 1971-2000 PERIOD.
ALL FORECAST VOLUMES REFLECT NATURAL FLOW. ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW MAY
BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT.
---------------------------------------------------
YAMPA/WHITE BASINS
MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
---- --- ---- ---- ---
YAMPA RIVER
STAGECOACH RSVR, ABV 21 57 34 11.7 37
STEAMBOAT SPRINGS 192 69 265 132 280
ELK RIVER
MILNER, NR 260 80 340 190 325
ELKHEAD CK
ELKHEAD, NR 29 74 44 17.0 39
MAYNARD GULCH, BLO 43 73 65 26 59
FORTIFICATION CK
FORTIFICATION, NR (MAR-JUN) 5.3 71 9.2 2.7 7.5
YAMPA RIVER
MAYBELL, NR 695 70 975 460 990
LITTLE SNAKE RIVER
SLATER, NR 120 75 166 81 159
DIXON, NR 240 73 365 142 330
LILY, NR 265 73 410 150 365
WHITE RIVER
MEEKER, NR 215 74 300 145 290
WATSON, NR 225 74 315 153 305
UPPER COLORADO, ABOVE GUNNISON BASIN
MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
---- --- ---- ---- ---
COLORADO RIVER
LAKE GRANBY, GRANBY, NR 170 76 220 126 225
WILLOW CK
WILLOW CK RES, GRANBY, NR 28 55 40 18.8 51
FRASER RIVER
WINTER PARK 16.0 80 21 11.0 20
WILLIAMS FORK RIVER
WILLIAMS FORK RES, PARSHALL, N 75 79 97 56 95
BLUE RIVER
DILLON RES 130 78 167 99 167
GREEN MTN RES 220 79 285 164 280
MUDDY CK
WOLFORD MTN RES, BLO 35 58 49 24 60
COLORADO RIVER
KREMMLING, NR 640 74 900 480 870
EAGLE RIVER
GYPSUM, BLO 240 72 330 169 335
COLORADO RIVER
DOTSERO, NR 1030 72 1500 775 1440
FRYING PAN RIVER
RUEDI RES, BASALT, NR 110 78 148 79 141
ROARING FORK RIVER
GLENWOOD SPRINGS 600 85 785 445 710
COLORADO RIVER
GLENWOOD SPRINGS, BLO 1650 76 2270 1220 2160
CAMEO, NR 1820 75 2530 1300 2420
PLATEAU CK
CAMEO, NR 95 83 145 58 115
GUNNISON BASIN
MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
---- --- ---- ---- ---
TAYLOR RIVER
TAYLOR PARK RES 85 83 115 65 103
ALMONT 135 82 185 105 165
EAST RIVER
ALMONT 155 81 205 120 192
GUNNISON RIVER
GUNNISON, NR 315 81 435 240 390
TOMICHI CK
GUNNISON 57 70 95 30 81
LAKE FORK RIVER
GATEVIEW 105 83 140 75 126
GUNNISON RIVER
BLUE MESA RES 570 79 795 420 720
MORROW POINT RES 620 79 875 480 785
CRYSTAL RES 695 76 995 545 915
MUDDY CK
PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR (MAR-JUN) 85 85 120 55 100
PAONIA RES, BARDINE, NR 87 85 133 57 102
NF GUNNISON RIVER
SOMERSET, NR 250 82 355 180 305
SURFACE CK
CEDAREDGE 15.0 88 20 9.0 17.1
UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER
RIDGWAY RES 88 86 123 63 102
COLONA 120 86 180 77 139
DELTA 100 85 155 65 117
GUNNISON RIVER
GRAND JUNCTION, NR 1250 80 1770 780 1560
DOLORES BASIN
MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
---- --- ---- ---- ---
DOLORES RIVER
DOLORES 225 85 315 150 265
MCPHEE RES 275 86 400 175 320
SAN MIGUEL RIVER
PLACERVILLE, NR 115 87 155 80 132
DOLORES RIVER
CISCO, NR 525 85 765 340 615
UPPER COLORADO, CONFLUENCE
MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
---- --- ---- ---- ---
COLORADO RIVER
CISCO, NR 3650 78 5000 2400 4650
MILL CK
MOAB, NR, SHELEY TUN, AT 5.9 118 8.7 3.8 5.0
SAN JUAN BASIN
MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
---- --- ---- ---- ---
SAN JUAN RIVER
PAGOSA SPRINGS 215 96 280 150 225
CARRACAS, NR 400 99 550 290 405
RIO BLANCO RIVER
PAGOSA SPRINGS, NR, BLANCO DAM 56 106 70 40 53
NAVAJO RIVER
CHROMO, NR, OSO DIV DAM, BLO 73 106 95 55 69
PIEDRA RIVER
ARBOLES, NR 225 98 320 155 230
LOS PINOS RIVER
VALLECITO RES, BAYFIELD, NR 200 98 260 140 205
SAN JUAN RIVER
NAVAJO RES, ARCHULETA, NR 765 97 1060 520 785
FLORIDA RIVER
LEMON RES, DURANGO, NR 55 95 72 41 58
ANIMAS RIVER
DURANGO 420 95 560 300 440
SAN JUAN RIVER
FARMINGTON 1160 96 1620 810 1210
LA PLATA RIVER
HESPERUS 25 100 32 16.4 25
SAN JUAN RIVER
BLUFF, NR 1150 93 1600 690 1230
MANCOS RIVER
MANCOS, NR 33 100 45 20 33
SOUTH CK
LLOYDS RSVR NR MONTICELLO, ABV 1.80 130 3.2 0.87 1.38
(MAR-JUL)
IN EASERTERN UTAH...
LAKE POWELL
MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
---- --- ---- ---- ---
COLORADO RIVER
LAKE POWELL, GLEN CYN DAM, AT 5400 68 8200
EASTERN UTAH - GREEN RIVER BASIN
MP MP% RMAX RMIN AVG
---- --- ---- ---- ---
BIG BRUSH CK
VERNAL, NR, RED FLEET RES, ABV 17.0 81 25 10.5 21
ASHLEY CK
VERNAL, NR 41 79 62 24 52
WF DUCHESNE RIVER
HANNA, NR 16.0 67 24 10.6 24
DUCHESNE RIVER
TABIONA, NR 65 62 98 39 105
WHITEROCKS RIVER
WHITEROCKS, NR 41 73 63 24 56
DUCHESNE RIVER
RANDLETT, NR 115 35 260 29 325
GREEN RIVER
GREEN RIVER, UT 1730 55 2780 930 3170
FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
-----------------------
IN WESTERN COLORADO...
FLOODING DUE SOLELY TO SNOWMELT RUNOFF IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.
IN EASTERN UTAH...
FLOODING DUE SOLELY TO SNOWMELT RUNOFF IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WEATHER.GOV/GJT.
FOR DETAILED PEAK FLOW FORECASTS VISIT
HTTP://WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCT/PEAK/PEAK.CGI
QUESTIONS CAN BE DIRECTED TO
BRYON LAWRENCE
SERVICE HYDROLOGIST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE
GRAND JUNCTION COLORADO
970 243 7007 EXT 493
BRYON.LAWRENCE@NOAA.GOV
DATA FROM THE NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE...THE COLORADO
BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER...AND THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
WERE USED TO PRODUCE THIS PRODUCT.
$$
BAL
