Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS74 KLCH 152154
ESFLCH
LAC001-003-009-019-039-053-055-079-099-101-113-115-TXC199-241-245-
351-361-457-162154-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
454 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2008
...ADVANCED HYROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG
RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE SABINE RIVER BASIN
IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE (NWS) IN LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
HAS IMPLEMENTED THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE
(AHPS) FOR THE SABINE RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AHPS
ENABLES THE NWS TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS.
THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE
THE CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS
DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE...THE SABINE RIVER NEAR
DEWEYVILLE HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 24 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE THE DEWEYVILLE FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 22.1 FEET
DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID FOR MAY 15TH THROUGH AUGUST 13TH 2008
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SABINE RIVER
BURKEVILLE 43 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 20.9
BON WEIR 30 19.7 19.7 19.7 19.7 19.7 19.7 19.7 20.3 22.5
DEWEYVILLE 24 22.1 22.1 22.1 22.1 22.1 22.2 23.0 23.3 23.7
ORANGE 4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6
BAYOU ANACOCO
ROSEPINE 17 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.7 8.2 10.0 11.2 12.3 14.8
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT CURRENT RIVER FLOWS AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. BY
PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE LEVEL OF
RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CANBE DETERMINED.
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT: HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LCH (INTERNET
ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.
$$
