Tennessee Drought Monitor

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FGUS74 KMRX 071650
ESFMRX
NCC039-043-TNC001-007-009-011-013-019-025-029-057-059-063-065-067-
073-089-091-093-105-107-115-121-123-129-139-143-145-151-153-155-
163-171-173-179-VAC105-167-169-191-195-520-720-081200-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1150 AM EST THU MAR 7 2013 /1050 AM CST THU MAR 7 2013/

...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST 
VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...

INTRODUCTION...

THIS IS THE 2013 SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN TENNESSEE FOR EAST 
TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NORTH 
CAROLINA. THIS ISSUANCE OUTLINES CURRENT RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE 
CONDITIONS AND HIGHLIGHTS POTENTIAL SITUATIONS THAT WOULD INDUCE 
FLOODING OR EXACERBATE DROUGHT.

IN SUMMARY...THE 2013 SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS AVERAGE.

THE FOLLOWING SECTIONS DESCRIBE PAST AND CURRENT CONDITIONS AND 
FUTURE EXPECTATIONS.

SNOW PACK...

A RECENT SNOW EVENT PLACED GENERALLY 2 INCHES OR LESS OF SNOW 
ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY AS WELL AS THE
NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...AND THIS WILL MELT OFF IN TYPICALLY
SHORT ORDER. BUT OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS...SNOW PACK 
RANGES GENERALLY FROM 2 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ROUGHLY ONE FOOT OF 
SNOW DEPTH AT SOME OF THE HIGHEST ALTITUDE REPORTING SITES. 

PRECIPITATION...

OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS...CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN MARGINALLY DRY AS 
PRECIPITATION HAS GENERALLY BEEN ONLY 50 TO 85 PERCENT OF
NORMAL...WITH ONLY A FEW PLACES RECEIVING NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
BUT OVER THE PAST 60 DAYS...PRECIPITATION HAS GENERALLY BEEN ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS HAVING RECEIVED NEARLY TWICE THE
NORMAL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT LATE
JANUARY AND EARLY FEBRUARY WERE VERY WET...WHILE THE REST OF
FEBRUARY INTO EARLY MARCH HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT DRY. THE RECENT
PRECIPITATION EVENT THIS WEEK HAS BEEN HELPFUL...AND ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES...

AFTER A VERY MILD DECEMBER AND A MILD JANUARY...FEBRUARY WAS A 
LITTLE COOLER THAN NORMAL. MARCH HAS GOTTEN OFF TO A VERY COLD
START WITH AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE FIRST WEEK...BUT A WARMER THAN NORMAL WEEKEND IS
AHEAD. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES FOR THE PAST 90 DAYS HAVE AVERAGED
ABOUT 2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

DROUGHT...

NONE OF THE AREA IS CURRENTLY IN A DROUGHT DESIGNATED AREA. 

SOIL MOISTURE...

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA THANKS TO
REGULAR PRECIPITATION EVENTS SINCE MID JANUARY. 

STREAMFLOWS...

THE RECENT PRECIPITATION EVENT PRODUCED THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
TO ONE INCH OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND THE HEADWATER AREAS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. FURTHER
NORTHEAST...AROUND ONE TO TWO INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION FELL
OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY AS WELL AS THE HEADWATER
AREAS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. IN RESPONSE TO THIS RECENT
PRECIPITATION EVENT...STREAMFLOWS ACROSS THE AREA ARE RUNNING MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL.

SPECIFICALLY...ACROSS THE LOWER CLINCH AND POWELL BASINS OF 
TENNESSEE...STREAMFLOWS ARE CURRENTLY MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. FOR THE
RIVERS WHOSE HEADWATER AREAS ARE IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...THE
FRENCH BROAD... UPPER PIGEON...LITTLE TENNESSEE AND HIWASSEE
RIVERS...STREAMFLOWS ARE ALSO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. IN THE HEADWATER
AREAS IN VIRGINIA...THE UPPER CLINCH AND UPPER HOLSTON BASINS
STREAMFLOWS ARE ALSO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.

THESE ELEVATED STREAMFLOWS ARE NOT UNUSUAL FOLLOWING A SIGNIFICANT 
PRECIPITATION EVENT...AND THESE RIVERS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STREAMFLOWS MAY AGAIN
RISE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOLLOWING ANOTHER POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EVENT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TENNESSEE RIVER BASIN RESERVOIR LEVELS...

THE PERCENT OF AVAILABLE FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE FOR RESERVOIRS IN 
THE TENNESSEE BASIN ABOVE CHATTANOOGA IS 99 PERCENT.

METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK...

THE WEEK TWO OUTLOOK FOR DAYS 8 TO 14 SHOWS HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR
COOLER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS.

THE CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH SHOWS NO DISCERNIBLE TREND
FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WHILE THERE ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED 
PROBABILITIES THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

THE LONGER TERM CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR THE 3 MONTH PERIOD OF MARCH 
THROUGH MAY INDICATES GOOD CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES... 
WHILE THERE IS NO DISCERNIBLE TREND FOR THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST.

THE 2013 SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...

BASED ON ALL OF THE ABOVE CONSIDERATIONS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL
IS EXPECTED FOR THE EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA... AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA BASINS.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... 

THIS OUTLOOK WAS CREATED WITH INPUT FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER 
FORECAST CENTER...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE 
TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY...STATE AND COUNTY OFFICIALS...AND 
VARIOUS COOPERATIVE WEATHER SPOTTERS. FOR MORE INFORMATION THE 
FOLLOWING WEBSITES ARE USEFUL:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MORRISTOWN
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LMRFC
WWW.WATERDATA.USGS.GOV
WWW.TVA.GOV
WWW.TENNESSEE.GOV/ENVIRONMENT
WWW.DEQ.VIRGINIA.GOV
WWW.NCWATER.ORG
DROUGHT.UNL.EDU
WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

YOU CAN ALSO CONTACT...

GENERAL WEATHER INFORMATION OR FORECASTS...CALL 423-586-3771

FOR INFORMATION RELATED TO THIS OUTLOOK CONTACT...

GLENN CARRIN, SERVICE HYDROLOGIST, 423-586-3771
GEORGE MATHEWS, METEOROLOGIST IN CHARGE
423-586-1964 MEDIA ONLY PLEASE

OR WRITE GLENN.CARRIN@NOAA.GOV AND GEORGE.MATHEWS@NOAA.GOV

$$

GDC