Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS72 KJAX 060209 AAA
ESFJAX
FLC001-003-007-019-023-031-035-041-047-083-089-107-109-121-125-
GAC001-003-005-025-039-049-065-069-101-127-161-229-299-305-061000-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
909 PM EST FRI MAR 5 2010
...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...
THERE REMAINS AN ABOVE NORMAL LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING THIS
SPRING.
...EXISTING CONDITIONS...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WINTER SEASON ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HAS QUIETED A BIT IN LATE FEBRUARY AS THE FREQUENCY OF
PRECIPITATION EVENTS HAS LESSENED. MOST RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS
ACROSS THE REGION ARE NOW RUNNING NEAR NORMAL WITH NO RIVERS IN
FLOOD. SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS HOWEVER REMAIN WETTER THAN NORMAL DUE TO
THE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED IN DECEMBER AND JANUARY.
...LONG TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...
THE 3-MONTH PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
INDICATES A 35 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH MAY. AS A RESULT....THERE IS AN
ABOVE NORMAL RISK FOR ADDITIONAL MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING. EXACTLY
WHICH BASINS WILL FLOOD AND TO WHAT EXTENT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE AND
HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS DURING THE SPRING MONTHS.
...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY...
RIVER FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THE FREQUENCY OF RIVER FLOODING
TYPICALLY PEAKS FROM EARLY MARCH THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK IN APRIL ON
AVERAGE. THIS PEAK IS MOST EVIDENT DURING EL NINO YEARS.
BASED ON THE COMBINATION OF CURRENT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS FROM THE
WINTER SEASON...HISTORICAL RIVER FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY DURING EL NINO
YEARS...AND EXPECTED ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL THIS SPRING SEASON...THE
OUTLOOK INDICATES AN ABOVE NORMAL LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE SPRING FLOOD SEASON ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
&&
INFORMATION USED TO COMPLETE THIS FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WAS
PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL
SURVEY...THE ST. JOHNS RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT AND THE
SUWANNEE RIVER WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT.
FOR MORE SPECIFIC HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA...PLEASE VISIT THE
FOLLOWING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITES:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAX
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SERFC
$$
JDS
