Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS73 KJKL 231917
ESFJKL
KYC011-013-025-051-063-065-069-071-095-109-115-119-121-125-129-131-
133-147-153-159-165-173-175-189-193-195-197-199-203-205-231-235-
237-051200-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
317 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2008
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE ENABLES THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER
OUTLOOKS...
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE
RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
EXAMPLE: THE CUMBERLAND RIVER AT WILLIAMSBURG HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 21
FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 25 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER WILL
RISE ABOVE 21.0 FEET.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD 10/26/2008 - 1/24/2009
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- ---
RUSSELL FORK BIG SANDY RIVER
ELKHORN CITY 21 8.1 9.4 9.6 10.2 14.4 15.2
LEVISA FORK BIG SANDY RIVER
PIKEVILLE 35 9.4 14.3 17.4 20.4 33.6 36.9
PRESTONSBURG 40 6.1 12.6 17.1 23.4 31.3 35.5
PAINTSVILLE 35 6.4 13.3 15.8 22.6 32.5 37.5
CUMBERLAND RIVER
CUMBERLAND 12 4.6 5.4 6.3 7.2 9.2 10.4
BAXTER 16 3.0 4.5 6.2 9.2 15.3 18.2
PINEVILLE 1002 979.4 982.7 986.3 991.6 997.6 1000.9
BARBOURVILLE 27 5.4 10.8 17.0 23.3 26.8 29.8
WILLIAMSBURG 21 7.8 11.7 15.0 21.0 25.7 31.4
NORTH FORK KENTUCKY RIVER
HAZARD 20 5.3 5.9 9.6 11.4 12.0 17.0
JACKSON 29 3.9 6.3 12.4 16.4 21.1 34.2
SOUTH FORK KENTUCKY RIVER
ONEIDA 29 10.5 13.0 15.9 19.7 24.1 27.9
BOONEVILLE 27 7.9 10.4 14.2 19.3 26.8 32.5
KENTUCKY RIVER
RAVENNA 21 13.2 15.3 18.0 20.4 24.4 37.6
HEIDELBERG 20 12.4 14.4 17.1 18.3 20.6 24.2
RED RIVER
CLAY CITY 17 4.6 6.2 8.4 12.7 15.4 20.0
FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER...THROUGH THE 23RD...RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
AVERAGED NEAR A HALF INCH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS IS AROUND 1.5
INCHES BELOW NORMAL SO FAR FOR THE MONTH.
THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK...VALID OCTOBER 30TH THROUGH NOVEMBER 5TH...
CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. NORMAL
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD IS AROUND 0.8 INCHES.
THE OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER CALLS FOR NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
PERIOD IS AROUND 4.2 INCHES.
THE 90 DAY OUTLOOK...VALID NOVEMBER 2008 THROUGH JANUARY 2009...CALLS
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION. NORMAL
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD IS AROUND 12 INCHES.
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES
THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR
MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF
THE RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS
OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE
OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC
FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS).
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JACKSONKY (ALL LOWER CASE)
$$
WJM
