Oklahoma Drought Monitor

Weather for Idabel, Oklahoma

Oklahoma Hydrologic Information Statement

Lat: 33.90N, Lon: 94.82W
Wx Zone: OKZ077 CWA Used: SHV

The Oklahoma Drought monitor is a subset of the United States Monitor, issued every Thursday morning, based on drought conditions the previous Tuesday. The map below shows the current drought level around the state, and the percent of Oklahoma land area in each drought level compared to the previous week.

Read an explanation of the drought intensities and what they mean.

Important Note: Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information
obtained from the Internet. Find out why.

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Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.

000
FGUS74 KSHV 161902
ESFSHV
TXC183-203-365-401-419-423-459-499-LAC031-162359-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
202 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE SABINE RIVER BASIN OF EAST TEXAS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE (NWS) OFFICE IN SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA
HAS IMPLEMENTED THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS)
FOR THE SABINE RIVER BASIN IN EASTERN TEXAS.  AHPS ENABLES THE
NWS TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS.  THIS SERVICE IS
ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS DURING
THE NEXT 90 DAYS.  FOR EXAMPLE...THE SABINE RIVER NEAR MINEOLA
TEXAS FLOOD STAGE IS 14 FEET.  THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE
SABINE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE 7.3 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.

        CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                VALID FOR MAY 16 - AUGUST 15 2013

     LOCATION      FS  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
------------------ --  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---

LAKE FORK CREEK
 QUITMAN 4S        16  2.9  2.9  2.9  3.0  3.1  3.2  3.5  3.8  4.4
SABINE RIVER
 MINEOLA 4S        14  5.0  5.6  6.0  6.5  7.3  8.2  9.0 11.3 16.5
 GLADEWATER 3WSW   26  6.5  7.0  8.2  8.7  9.4 10.9 12.7 15.4 19.0
 LONGVIEW          25  4.8  6.1  6.8  7.9  9.6 10.1 11.4 16.1 20.0
 BECKVILLE 8NE     26  7.9  8.7  9.1 10.2 10.7 11.5 12.4 14.4 18.3
 LOGANSPORT        28 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.6 26.5
BIG SANDY CREEK
 BIG SANDY 4NE     17  5.0  5.1  5.8  6.3  6.8  7.3  7.9  8.5 10.6
RABBIT CREEK
 KILGORE           10  3.9  4.0  4.1  4.1  4.3  4.8  5.1  5.6  9.3

 LOCATION     90%   80%   70%   60%   50%   40%   30%   20%   10%
 ----------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
LK CHEROKEE  279.7 279.7 279.7 279.7 279.8 279.9 280.0 280.1 280.3
LK MARTIN    304.4 304.4 304.4 304.4 304.4 304.6 304.8 305.4 306.1
LK MURVAUL   265.3 265.3 265.3 265.3 265.3 265.4 265.5 265.6 266.0

THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS PROBABILITIES COMPUTED
USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL CLIMATOLOGICAL 
AND STREAM FLOW DATA.  THESE PROBABILITIES ALSO ACCOUNT FOR THE 
CURRENT RIVER FLOWS AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS.  BY PROVIDING THE 
COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE LEVEL OF RISK 
ASSOCIATED WITH LONG RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED.

ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE 
INTERNET AT THIS URL:  HTTP://AHPS.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=SHV 
(INTERNET ADDRESS URL IS ALL LOWER CASE).

LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD 
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.

$$

VIII.