Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS73 KMQT 121814
ESFMQT
MIC013-053-061-071-103-131-131814-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
114 PM EST FRI MAR 12 2010
...UPDATED SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 2...
...LOW POTENTIAL FOR SNOW MELT FLOODING...
BASED ON CURRENT SNOW PACK CONDITIONS...SOIL MOISTURE AND ONGOING
MARGINAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS...THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SNOW MELT
FLOODING THIS SPRING. A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SNOW MELT FLOODING MEANS
MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY DAMAGE IS EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF THE SNOW
MELT THIS SPRING.
...SPRING FLOODING POTENTIAL STATISTICS (FOR SPECIFIC RIVERS)...
CHANCE OF
SPRING FLOODING
--------------- BASIN
FLD NORMAL | THIS DROUGHT
LOCATION STG YEAR | YEAR STATUS
-----------------------------------------------------
PESHEKEE RIVER AT
CHAMPION 4NW (CHPM4) 8.5 8% | <1% NONE
MICHIGAMME RIVER AT
WITCH LAKE (WLKM4) 9.0 36% | 6% D0
PAINT RIVER AT
CRYSTAL FALLS (CRYM4) 7.0 25% | 20% D1
BLACK RIVER NEAR
BESSEMER (BESM4) 10.0 20% | 20% D0
ONTONAGON RIVER NEAR
ROCKLAND (RKLM4) 25.0 1% | 1% D0
TRAP ROCK RIVER NEAR
LAKE LINDEN (TRRM4) 8.5 52% | 52% NONE
MID BR ESCANABA R AT
HUMBOLDT (HUMM4) 6.5 20% | 12% NONE
EAST BR ESCANABA R AT
GWINN (GNNM4) 7.0 3% | 3% NONE
STURGEON R AT
ALSTON 5SE (ALSM4) 8.0 70% | 51% D0
CHOCOLAY R AT
HARVEY (HRVM4) 10.0 N/A | N/A NONE
FLD STG = FLOOD STAGE
N/A = NOT ENOUGH DATA TO DETERMINE VALUE
D0 = ABNORMALLY DRY
D1 = MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
...SNOW PACK CONDITIONS...
RECENT SNOW MELT OVER THE LAST WEEK HAS ELIMINATED THE EXISTING SNOW
PACK FOR AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND PORTIONS OF INLAND MENOMINEE
COUNTY. THE LARGEST SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS ARE
LOCATED OVER THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT SNOW REGIONS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. IN THESE AREAS...THE SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM 10 TO 25
INCHES AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES ARE FROM 3 TO 7 INCHES.
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...SNOW DEPTH VALUES ARE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES LESS THAN 3 INCHES. THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAST WEEK HAVE PRIMED THE SNOW PACK FOR
MELTING...WITH MODELED SNOW PACK TEMPERATURES AT OR NEAR 32 DEGREES
ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING
CENTER.
THIS RECENT MELTING OF THE SNOW PACK HAS LED TO SOME GRADUAL RISES
ON THE AREA RIVERS...BUT CURRENT STAGES REMAIN WELL BELOW FLOOD
LEVELS. THIS IS DUE TO THE EXISTING LOW RIVER LEVELS FROM THE
ONGOING DROUGHT OVER PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN.
RAIN FELL ACROSS MOST OF UPPER MICHIGAN ON MARCH 10TH AND
11TH...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING 0.05 TO 0.20 OF AN INCH OF
RAIN. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL REPORTS...OF A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH...WERE OVER THE AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE TO NO SNOW
DEPTH...MAINLY OVER MENOMINEE AND DELTA COUNTIES.
...SOIL MOISTURE...
SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE UPPER
PENINSULA...WHILE NEAR NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS
THE EAST HALF. IN TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS OBSERVED FROST
DEPTHS ARE SHALLOW AND ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 INCHES...AWAY FROM
THESE AREAS AND TOWARDS THE WISCONSIN BORDER...FROST DEPTHS RANGE
FROM 1 TO 3 FEET.
...TEMPERATURE/PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...MARCH 13 THROUGH MARCH 20...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS...AS CLOUDS LINGER OVER
THE AREA. LOWS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR NEXT
WEEK...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A CONTINUED SNOW MELT THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL TRANSITION
TO A DIURNAL SNOW MELT NEXT WEEK.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION...LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND.
BEHIND THE LOW...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR NEXT WEEK.
OVER THE NEXT 8 TO 14 DAYS...THERE IS AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR
UPPER MICHIGAN TO EXPERIENCE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW...OR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THIS SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK IS FOR ALL RIVERS IN
UPPER MICHIGAN EXCLUDING THE MONTREAL...BRULE AND MENOMINEE
RIVERS...AS WELL AS THOSE RIVERS IN CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES.
FOR INFORMATION ON THESE RIVERS...PLEASE SEE THE EQUIVALENT OF THIS
DISCUSSION FROM THE GAYLORD AND GREEN BAY NWS OFFICES.
NOTE...THIS SNOWMELT OUTLOOK IS BASED OFF OF CURRENT BASIN
CONDITIONS AND AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
MONTH AND A HALF.
THE NEXT SPRING FLOODING AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK WILL BE
ISSUED...IF NEEDED...ON MARCH 26TH.
$$
SRF
