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Lawrenceville Weather

Weather for Hopkinsville, Kentucky

Lat: 36.85N, Lon: 87.49W
Wx Zone: KYZ017 CWA Used: PAH

Kentucky Drought Monitor

The Kentucky Drought monitor is a subset of the United States Monitor, issued every Thursday morning, based on drought conditions the previous Tuesday. The map below shows the current drought level around the state, and the percent of Kentucky land area in each drought level compared to the previous week.

Read an explanation of the drought intensities and what they mean.

Kentucky Drought Monitor

Kentucky Hydrologic Information Statement

Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.

000
FGUS73 KPAH 161926
ESFPAH
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-
185-191-193-199-INC051-125-129-147-163-173-KYC007-033-035-039-047-
055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-149-157-177-219-221-225-
233-MOC017-023-031-035-133-143-157-181-201-207-223-231200-

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
125 PM CST THU FEB 16 2017

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1...

This outlook is for the NWS Paducah service area. It covers the time
period for late February through late May. It includes the mid-
Mississippi and lower Ohio Rivers and their tributaries for
southwest Indiana, southern Illinois, west Kentucky and southeast
Missouri.

...Flood Outlook Highlights...

Flood potential is below average or below normal for most of the
smaller tributaries in southwest Missouri and southern Illinois for
this time of year. There is an average or normal chance of minor
flooding on the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers and other tributaries in
southwest Indiana and west Kentucky. Flooding in this region occurs
mainly due to conditions of ground moisture, river flows, and
expected precipitation.  Ice jams are rarely a factor in flooding for
this part of the country.

...Current Conditions...

Snow...Frost and Soil Conditions...Precipitation since December 1
has been below normal across the region. Consequently, area rivers
are running below normal for this time of year. Storage capacity on
area lakes is running 98 to 100 percent.

Snowfall has been minimal this winter. While some areas received up
to 2 inches of snow during the first week of January, most locations
recorded less than 1/2 inch. Very little snow exists across the
Mississippi and Ohio Valleys except in the far northern reaches.
Even then, only a few inches remains with a liquid water equivalent
of around 1 inch.

Warmer than normal temperatures and a lack of rain or snow this
winter have lead to soil moisture levels below normal. No days
with a frost depth have been recorded this winter.

...Probabilistic Outlooks...

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.

...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  02/22/2017 - 05/23/2017

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Green River
Calhoun             23.0   26.0   32.0 :  51   46   27   32   <5   10
Paradise           380.0  386.0  400.0 :  68   72   34   40   <5   <5
:Little Wabash River
Carmi               27.0   32.0   35.0 :  52   64   31   37   17   21
:Ohio River
Evansville          42.0   48.0   52.0 :  26   37   <5   <5   <5   <5
Golconda            40.0   49.0   55.0 :  39   53    6    6   <5   <5
Mount Vernon        35.0   45.0   52.0 :  69   81    7    8   <5   <5
Newburgh Dam        38.0   48.0   56.0 :  79   89    5    5   <5   <5
Owensboro           40.0   44.0   49.0 :  33   50    7    8   <5   <5
Shawneetown         33.0   43.0   53.0 :  74   90   26   45   <5   <5
J.T. Myers Dam      37.0   49.0   60.0 :  70   83    7    7   <5   <5
:Patoka River
Princeton           18.0   20.0   23.0 :  52   58   33   42   14   19
:Skillet Fork River
Wayne City          15.0   17.0   20.0 :  43   43   36   36   25   25
:Wabash River
New Harmony         15.0   20.0   23.0 :  83   84   24   24   <5   <5
:Black River
Poplar Bluff        16.0   19.0   21.0 :  25   27  <20  <20  <20  <20
:Current River
Doniphan            13.0   18.0   22.0 : <20  <20  <20  <20  <20  <20
Van Buren           20.0   23.0   27.0 : <20  <20  <20  <20  <20  <20
:St. Francis River
Fisk                20.0   22.0   26.0 :  20   25   14   21  <20  <20
Patterson           16.0   25.0   32.0 :  48   50  <20  <20  <20  <20
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield           20.0   27.0   34.0 :  33   51   14   16   <5   <5
Murphysboro         22.0   28.0   36.0 :  42   56   23   30    8    9

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 02/22/2017 - 05/23/2017
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Green River
Calhoun              14.4   16.9   19.5   23.1   26.2   29.1   31.1
Paradise            371.0  373.3  378.7  383.2  387.7  392.3  394.7
:Little Wabash River
Carmi                15.7   17.1   23.0   27.3   33.6   36.2   37.5
:Ohio River
Evansville           28.9   31.2   35.3   40.0   42.1   43.2   45.9
Golconda             33.6   34.3   36.2   38.7   41.8   46.6   50.7
Mount Vernon         28.5   30.1   33.8   38.6   41.0   42.9   47.1
Newburgh Dam         31.6   35.3   39.0   42.3   44.1   45.4   48.1
Owensboro            28.9   31.8   35.0   38.1   41.0   42.9   46.1
Shawneetown          28.1   29.2   32.7   38.0   43.2   47.3   52.0
J.T. Myers Dam       31.4   32.6   36.2   40.4   44.1   47.3   51.2
:Patoka River
Princeton             9.8   11.1   13.4   18.3   20.8   23.8   24.5
:Skillet Fork River
Wayne City            8.2    9.3   10.9   13.0   19.9   22.6   25.7
:Wabash River
New Harmony          11.8   13.7   16.5   17.9   19.9   21.2   22.4
:Black River
Poplar Bluff          8.0    9.7   11.1   12.6   14.2   15.4   16.7
:Current River
Doniphan              0.7    1.2    3.0    4.0    4.5    5.3    6.2
Van Buren             3.2    4.0    5.3    6.0    6.5    7.3    8.0
:St. Francis River
Fisk                  9.1   11.7   12.6   14.9   15.9   17.9   20.0
Patterson            10.9   12.5   14.5   15.9   16.8   18.1   20.7
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield            13.1   14.5   16.8   18.9   22.2   25.9   33.8
Murphysboro          11.6   11.9   15.1   19.9   27.7   34.9   40.4

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 02/22/2017 - 05/23/2017
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Green River
Calhoun              11.6   11.4   11.0   10.6   10.4   10.2   10.1
Paradise            366.3  366.0  365.4  364.9  364.7  364.5  364.4
:Little Wabash River
Carmi                 4.9    4.3    3.3    3.1    2.9    2.7    2.6
:Ohio River
Evansville           17.7   16.2   15.6   14.9   14.4   14.1   13.9
Golconda             29.9   29.7   29.6   29.6   29.6   29.6   29.6
Mount Vernon         24.1   23.9   23.8   23.6   23.5   23.4   23.4
Newburgh Dam         18.9   17.1   16.1   15.3   14.6   14.0   13.8
Owensboro            19.3   19.0   19.0   19.0   19.0   19.0   19.0
Shawneetown          19.3   18.1   17.0   16.2   15.8   15.6   15.5
J.T. Myers Dam       20.4   18.7   16.9   15.5   14.9   14.4   13.8
:Patoka River
Princeton             6.6    5.0    4.4    3.6    3.2    2.9    2.7
:Skillet Fork River
Wayne City            5.5    5.4    5.3    5.3    5.2    5.2    5.1
:Wabash River
New Harmony           5.3    4.9    4.0    3.3    2.7    2.2    2.0
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield             5.9    5.5    5.4    5.2    4.8    4.6    4.4
Murphysboro           3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service's advanced hydrologic prediction
service.

...Weather Outlooks...

Warmer weather will return by the weekend with high temperatures
once again 20 to 25 degrees above normal. A couple of storm systems
will move across the region but rain totals through the next
week will be less than 1/2 inch in most locations.

The 8 to 14 day outlook for February 23 through 29 calls for above
normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. During this
time, normal average temperatures are in the lower 40s and rainfall
during this period is around eight-tenths of an inch.

The outlook for March is near normal precipitation. Normal
precipitation is between four and five inches. The seasonal outlook
for March through May calls for near normal precipitation as well.

Visit our web site weather.gov/pah for more weather and water
information.

The next outlook will be issued on March 2, 2017.

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