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Lawrenceville Weather

Weather for Hopkinsville, Kentucky

Lat: 36.85N, Lon: 87.49W
Wx Zone: KYZ017 CWA Used: PAH

Kentucky Drought Monitor

The Kentucky Drought monitor is a subset of the United States Monitor, issued every Thursday morning, based on drought conditions the previous Tuesday. The map below shows the current drought level around the state, and the percent of Kentucky land area in each drought level compared to the previous week.

Read an explanation of the drought intensities and what they mean.

Kentucky Drought Monitor

Kentucky Hydrologic Information Statement

Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.

000
FGUS73 KPAH 192115
ESFPAH
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-
185-191-193-199-INC051-125-129-147-163-173-KYC007-033-035-039-047-
055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-149-157-177-219-221-225-
233-MOC017-023-031-035-133-143-157-181-201-207-223-051200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
315 PM CST THU FEB 19 2015

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1...

This outlook is for the NWS Paducah service area. It covers the time
period for late February through late May. It includes the mid-
Mississippi and lower Ohio Rivers and their tributaries for southwest
Indiana, southern Illinois, west Kentucky and southeast Missouri.

...Flood Outlook Highlights...

Flood potential is average to below average or normal to below normal
for this time of year. Minor flooding is expected due to rain and
snow melt. Flooding in this region occurs mainly due to conditions of
ground moisture, river flows and expected precipitation. Ice jams are
rarely a factor in flooding in this part of the country.

...Current Conditions...

Snow...Frost and Soil Conditions...A winter storm system dumped 4 to
12 inches of snow on the region on President's Day. The heaviest
swath of snow cut straight across the mid-section stretching from
Patterson to Cape Girardeau, Missouri to Paducah and Madisonville,
Kentucky. This snow had a high liquid to snow ratio and snow water
equivalent ranges only from 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch through the
heaviest snow areas. Conditions aren't much different in the upper
Mississippi and Ohio Valleys with snow water equivalents around one
inch or less.

Rainfall has been below normal this winter and most of Kentucky is
depicted in moderate drought on the National Drought Monitor. Stream
flow conditions are running below normal. The Ohio River at Cairo is
only 62% of normal. Soil moisture is near or below normal and frost
depths are 1 inch or less.

...Probabilistic Outlooks...

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.

...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  2/23/2015 - 5/24/2015

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Ohio River
Evansville          42.0   48.0   52.0 :  26   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Golconda            40.0   50.0   55.0 :  40   <5    6   <5   <5   <5
Mount Vernon        35.0   45.0   52.0 :  67   <5    7   <5   <5   <5
Newburgh Dam        38.0   48.0   56.0 :  82   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Owensboro           40.0   45.0   49.0 :  31   <5    6   <5   <5   <5
Shawneetown         33.0   43.0   53.0 :  86   <5   33   <5   <5   <5
J.T. Myers Dam      37.0   50.0   60.0 :  75   <5    6   <5   <5   <5
:Wabash River
New Harmony         15.0   20.0   23.0 :  81   <5   22   <5   <5   <5
:Green River
Calhoun             23.0   26.0   32.0 :  37   <5   25   <5    6   <5
Paradise           380.0  386.0  400.0 :  66   <5   33   <5   19   <5
:Little Wabash River
Carmi               27.0   32.0   35.0 :  65   <5   36   <5   19   <5
:Patoka River
Princeton           18.0   20.0   22.0 :  52   <5   36   <5   22   <5
:Skillet Fork River
Wayne City          15.0   17.0   20.0 :  44   <5   36   <5   23   <5
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield           20.0   25.0   34.0 :  40   35   12    7   <5   <5
Murphysboro         22.0   28.0   36.0 :  66   69   26   30    9    7

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 2/23/2015 - 5/24/2015
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Ohio River
Evansville           29.2   33.3   35.0   39.4   42.2   43.2   45.7
Golconda             33.1   35.2   36.6   38.6   42.4   46.6   50.9
Mount Vernon         28.6   31.6   33.6   38.2   41.2   42.8   47.0
Newburgh Dam         31.2   36.5   39.4   42.3   44.1   45.4   48.0
Owensboro            28.4   32.6   35.1   37.9   40.8   42.8   46.0
Shawneetown          29.3   32.3   35.1   39.3   44.7   48.4   52.5
J.T. Myers Dam       31.8   34.7   37.0   40.5   44.2   47.6   51.4
:Wabash River
New Harmony          11.6   13.4   16.2   17.6   19.8   20.8   21.6
:Green River
Calhoun              14.2   14.8   16.5   19.8   26.1   30.5   32.6
Paradise            372.2  374.4  378.8  382.5  387.7  393.8  397.1
:Little Wabash River
Carmi                18.6   21.6   25.4   29.5   34.2   36.3   37.5
:Patoka River
Princeton            11.1   12.8   14.6   18.3   21.5   24.7   24.9
:Skillet Fork River
Wayne City            8.0    9.3   10.6   13.6   19.9   21.8   24.1
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield            16.0   16.6   17.7   19.2   21.3   25.5   31.0
Murphysboro          16.3   18.1   20.8   24.3   29.0   35.6   38.1

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 2/23/2015 - 5/24/2015
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield             7.0    6.8    6.7    6.6    5.8    5.2    5.2
Murphysboro           6.5    6.2    5.6    5.4    5.4    5.0    4.9

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service's advanced hydrologic prediction
service.

...Weather Outlooks...

A complicated and diverse storm system will impact the region this
weekend. At this time, precipitation will begin as light snow as
early as Thursday night before changing over to a wintry mix early
Friday. Snow and sleet will change over to freezing rain before
changing over to all rain by Saturday morning. Heavy rain will be
possible on Saturday with rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches expected.
This will cause an immediate, and short term, flooding problem. At
the onset of rain, snow-filled ditches and drainages will keep
rainfall from draining off roads and other impervious surfaces.

The 8 to 14 day outlook for February 26 through March 4 is for below
normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. During this time,
normal average temperatures are in the lower 40s and rainfall during
this period is a little over three-quarters of an inch.

The outlook for March is for slightly below normal to normal for
temperatures and slightly above normal to normal for precipitation.
Normal precipitation for March is between 4 and 4 1/2 inches. The
seasonal outlook for March through May calls for normal temperatures
and precipitation.

...Additional Information...

This is the first of two Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlooks
for the season. Visit our web site weather.gov/pah for more weather
and water information.

The next outlook will be issued March 5.

$$

ML