Arizona Drought Monitor

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AZZ008-015-016>018-037-202300-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
320 PM MST MON JUL 9 2012

...WILDFIRE BURN AREAS INCREASE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS 
FLOWS...

IN THE AFTERMATH OF RECENT WILDFIRES ACROSS NORTHERN 
ARIZONA...INCLUDING THE GLADIATOR FIRE...WALLOW FIRE AND LOCUST FIRE 
FROM 2011...AND THE SCHULTZ FIRE FROM 2010...LOCATIONS DOWNHILL AND 
DOWNSTREAM FROM BURNED AREAS ARE NOW MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH 
FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS. A SHORT PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL ON A 
BURNED WATERSHED CAN LEAD TO FLASH FLOODS OR DEBRIS FLOWS. RAINFALL 
THAT IS NORMALLY ABSORBED CAN RUN OFF EXTREMELY QUICKLY AFTER SOILS 
AND VEGETATION HAVE BEEN CHARRED. SEVERELY BURNED SOILS CAN BE AS 
WATER REPELLENT AS PAVEMENT. CONSEQUENTLY...RUNOFF WILL BE GREATER 
AND MORE RAPID THAN PRIOR TO A FIRE. FLOOD WATERS CAN PICK UP 
LARGE AMOUNTS OF ASH...SAND...SILT...ROCKS...AND REMNANTS OF 
VEGETATION. THE FORCE OF RUSHING WATER AND DEBRIS CAN DAMAGE OR 
DESTROY CULVERTS...BRIDGES...ROADWAYS...AND BUILDINGS...POTENTIALLY 
CAUSING INJURY OR DEATH. DO NOT WAIT FOR A FLASH FLOOD WARNING TO 
TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE EVENT OF HEAVY 
RAIN IN A BURNED AREA. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER A BURN AREA 
CAN PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING NEARLY AS FAST AS NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE RADAR CAN DETECT THE RAINFALL. FLASH FLOODING MAY BEGIN 
BEFORE A WARNING CAN BE ISSUED. IF YOU ARE IN AREAS VULNERABLE TO 
FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS...PLAN IN ADVANCE. THERE WILL BE VERY 
LITTLE TIME TO SPARE WHEN FLOODING BEGINS. FOR A COMPREHENSIVE LIST 
OF FLOOD PREPAREDNESS AND SAFETY MATERIALS INCLUDING FLOOD INSURANCE 
INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/FLOODSAFETY

EACH WILDFIRE BURN AREA POSES ITS OWN UNIQUE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING 
DUE TO MANY FACTORS INCLUDING PROXIMITY TO POPULATION CENTERS...BURN 
SEVERITY...STEEPNESS OF TERRAIN...AND SIZE OF BURNED DRAINAGE 
BASINS. INFORMATION PERTINENT TO INDIVIDUAL BURN AREAS IS INCLUDED 
BELOW.

GLADIATOR FIRE BURN AREA...AFFECTING THE COMMUNITY OF CROWN KING AS 
WELL AS PORTIONS OF CROWN KING ROAD...SENATOR HIGHWAY...AND WAGONER 
ROAD IN THE BRADSHAW MOUNTAINS. 16240 ACRES WERE BURNED IN MAY AND 
JUNE OF 2012 IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. AREAS DOWNHILL AND 
DOWNSTREAM FROM BURNED AREAS WILL BE VULNERABLE TO FLASH FLOODS AND 
DEBRIS FLOWS EVEN IN MODERATE INTENSITY RAINS LASTING AS LITTLE AS 
10 TO 15 MINUTES. FLOODING AND DEBRIS WILL BEGIN WITHIN MINUTES 
AFTER HEAVY RAINFALL BEGINS. CROWN KING ROAD AND SENATOR 
HIGHWAY...THE MAIN ACCESS ROUTES TO CROWN KING...WILL LIKELY BE 
WASHED OUT AFTER PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. WAGONER ROAD WILL ALSO 
BE SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHERE IT CROSSES WATERWAYS LEADING OUT OF THE 
GLADIATOR BURN AREA. SOME HOMES IN THE CROWN KING AREA WILL BE 
VULNERABLE TO FLOODING. STREAMS RUNNING OUT OF THE BURN 
AREA...INCLUDING TURKEY CREEK AND POLAND CREEK...WILL LIKELY HAVE 
MUCH HIGHER FLOWS THAN DURING TYPICAL SUMMER RAINFALL...AND WILL 
CARRY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF SEDIMENT. BLACK CANYON MAY ALSO SEE HEAVIER 
FLOWS THAN NORMAL THIS SUMMER...POTENTIALLY REACHING ROCK SPRINGS. 
PEOPLE PURSUING RECREATIONAL ACTIVITIES DOWNSTREAM FROM THE 
GLADIATOR FIRE BURN AREA SHOULD BE AWARE THAT FLASH FLOODING MAY 
TAKE PLACE EVEN IN AREAS MILES OUTSIDE THE BURN AREA.

WALLOW FIRE BURN AREA...AFFECTING THE COMMUNITIES OF 
ALPINE...EAGAR...GREER...AND NUTRIOSO AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF  
HIGHWAYS 180...191...260...261...273...AND 373 WITHIN THE BURNED 
AREA OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THE LARGEST WILDFIRE IN STATE HISTORY  
BURNED OVER 500 THOUSAND ACRES OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. PORTIONS OF 
THE AREA WERE SEVERELY BURNED...INCLUDING AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. 
MANY AREAS HAVE SEEN SIGNIFICANT VEGETATION RECOVERY OVER THE PAST 
YEAR WHICH WILL REDUCE FLOOD RISK. NEVERTHELESS...SOME LOCATIONS 
WILL REMAIN VULNERABLE TO FLASH FLOODS AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN HEAVY 
RAIN...ESPECIALLY IN STEEP AND ROCKY AREAS WHERE VEGETATION HAS NOT 
GROWN SIGNIFICANTLY. SOME OF THE AREAS WHICH RECEIVED FLOODING IN 
THE SUMMER OF 2011...INCLUDING STEEP SEVERELY BURNED AREAS NEAR 
GREER...ALPINE...AND NUTRIOSO...WILL LIKELY HAVE ADDITIONAL FLOODING 
THIS SUMMER DURING HEAVY RAIN. IN PARTICULAR...HIGHWAY 180/191 
BETWEEN NUTRIOSO AND ALPINE MAY BE VULNERABLE TO PERIODIC CLOSURES 
DUE TO FLOODING. SOME NATIONAL FOREST AREAS WHICH WERE CLOSED DURING 
2011 HAVE BEEN OPENED FOR 2012. PEOPLE ENTERING THESE AREAS SHOULD 
BE ALERT FOR FLOODING...FALLING ROCKS...DEBRIS FLOWS...AND EROSION.

LOCUST FIRE BURN AREA...AFFECTING THE COMMUNITY OF WHITERIVER. IN 
2011...364 ACRES WERE BURNED ON A STEEP HILLSIDE IMMEDIATELY WEST OF 
THE NORTHSIDE...WHISKEY FLATS...AND YUCCA FLATS NEIGHBORHOODS OF 
WHITERIVER. SOME VEGETATION RECOVERY HAS TAKEN PLACE OVER THE PAST 
YEAR...AND PUBLIC AGENCIES HAVE DONE SIGNIFICANT WORK TO KEEP FLOOD 
WATERS OUT OF RESIDENCES. NEVERTHELESS...MUCH OF THE BURN AREA 
REMAINS VULNERABLE TO FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS DURING HEAVY 
RAIN...AND FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE AGAIN DURING THE 
SUMMER OF 2012. DUE TO THE VERY CLOSE PROXIMITY OF RESIDENCES TO 
THE  BURN AREA...FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS WILL AFFECT 
RESIDENCES ONLY 5 TO 10 MINUTES AFTER HEAVY RAIN BEGINS. VULNERABLE 
LOCATIONS ARE FROM AROUND LOCUST STREET TO KNOTS LANDING ROAD 
BETWEEN THE WHITE RIVER AND THE BURN AREA.

SCHULTZ FIRE BURN AREA...AFFECTING THE COMMUNITIES OF HUTCHISON 
ACRES...TIMBERLINE...AND WUPATKI TRAILS. ALTHOUGH TWO YEARS HAVE 
PASSED SINCE THE FIRE...THE BURN AREA WILL STILL PRODUCE FLOODING 
MUCH MORE EASILY THAN BEFORE THE FIRE. VEGETATION RECOVERY HAS BEEN 
SLOW AS SEVERE EROSION HAS TAKEN PLACE EACH SUMMER SINCE THE FIRE. 
CHANNELS CARVED  BY FLOODING FROM PAST YEARS WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 
WATER DOWNHILL RAPIDLY. PUBLIC AGENCIES HAVE DONE EXTENSIVE WORK TO 
CHANNEL FLOOD WATERS AWAY FROM RESIDENCES AND ROADWAYS...HOWEVER 
PARTICULARLY HEAVY OR PROLONGED RAINFALL IN THE BURN AREA IS LIKELY 
TO PRODUCE FLOODING AGAIN THIS SUMMER IN NEIGHBORHOODS WEST OF 
HIGHWAY 89.

RESIDENTS IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD HAVE AN EMERGENCY KIT AND A 
PLAN TO EVACUATE. IF ROADS ARE BLOCKED OR IT IS UNSAFE TO EVACUATE 
DUE TO FLASH FLOODING...DEBRIS FLOWS...HEAVY RAIN...OR POOR 
VISIBILITY IT IS BEST TO SHELTER IN PLACE IN A STURDY STRUCTURE. 
CALL 911 IF YOU ARE CAUGHT IN A FLASH FLOOD OR DEBRIS FLOW. IF YOU 
ARE IN A VEHICLE...DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOOD WATERS OR DEBRIS FLOWS.

WHEN THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ISSUES A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR 
YOUR AREA...IT MEANS THAT THERE IS ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH 
FLOODING. YOU SHOULD BE EVEN MORE ALERT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH 
FLOODING. KEEP IN MIND THAT SUMMER WEATHER IN NORTHERN ARIZONA 
BRINGS A POSSIBILITY FOR FLASH FLOODING ALMOST EVERY DAY IN
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM OVER FLOOD PRONE AREAS AND BURNED AREAS.

WHEN THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ISSUES A FLASH FLOOD WARNING...IT 
MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING OR IS LIKELY TO OCCUR 
VERY SOON. DO NOT DELAY TAKING PROTECTIVE MEASURES EVEN IF RAINFALL 
IS LIGHT AT YOUR LOCATION.

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS RELATED TO THE CONTENT OF THIS 
PRODUCT...PLEASE CONTACT

GEORGE HOWARD
WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE - FLAGSTAFF
928-556-9161
GEORGE.HOWARD@NOAA.GOV

$$

DJO

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR OFFICIAL WARNINGS AND FORECASTS.