Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS73 KDLH 050344
ESFDLH
MNC001-017-021-031-035-061-071-075-115-137-WIC003-007-013-031-051-099
-113-129-112300-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1030 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2008
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
VALID 8/4/2008 - 10/26/2008
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE...THE ST. LOUIS RIVER AT SCANLON HAS A
FLOOD STAGE OF 10.5 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE 5.2 FEET.
FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
______ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___
ST. LOUIS RIVER AT SCANLON
10.5 3.6 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.2 6.0 6.4 7.5 8.3
PRAIRIE RIVER NEAR TACONITE
10 2.4 2.5 2.7 3.1 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.3 5.1
SNAKE RIVER AT PINE CITY
9 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.8 5.2 5.5 6.1 7.6
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT AITKIN
12 4.8 5.5 6.1 6.8 7.4 8.2 9.0 9.5 11.2
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT FORT RIPLEY
10 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.5 5.9 6.3 6.8 7.6 8.3
ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS HAVE CREPT INTO NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 2 TO THE IRON
RANGE.
RIVER FLOWS HAVE DROPPED TO BELOW OR MUCH BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ON THE
STURGEON RIVER NEAR CHISHOLM...KNIFE RIVER AT TWO HARBORS...AND THE
ST. LOUIS RIVER AT SCANLON IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND ALONG AND
NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 2 IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. ELSEWHERE...FLOWS
ARE NORMAL. LAKE SUPERIOR IS 17 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL COMPARED TO ONE
YEAR AGO. TOPSOIL MOISTURE IS ADEQUATE.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RANGED FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IN JULY. 3 TO 6 INCHES FELL ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...AS WELL AS
IRON AND ASHLAND COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE SHORT TERM INDICATE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. THE LONG TERM OUTLOOK FOR AUGUST
INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE 90 DAY
OUTLOOK FOR AUGUST THROUGH OCTOBER INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF
ABOVE...NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER... SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A FULL RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS
ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE.
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=DLH FOR
MORE WEATHER AND RIVER INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC
RIVER OUTLOOKS.
$$
