Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS73 KPAH 221807
ESFPAH
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-
181-185-191-193-199-INC051-125-129-147-163-173-KYC007-033-035-
039-047-055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-149-157-177-
219-221-225-233-MOC017-023-031-035-133-143-157-181-201-207-223-
151800-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
108 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2008
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE ENABLES THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER
OUTLOOKS...
IN THE TABLES BELOW...THE PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE
THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT
90 DAYS. EXAMPLE...THE GREEN RIVER AT PARADISE HAS A FLOOD
STAGE OF 380 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS AROUND A 50
PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER WILL REACH FLOOD STAGE.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID 10/27/2008 - 1/25/2009
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
BIG MUDDY RIVER
PLUMFIELD 20 8.2 10.4 13.0 16.0 17.6 19.0 21.3 22.2 24.7
MURPHYSBORO 22 5.9 8.4 12.3 14.7 16.8 19.1 21.0 22.9 26.9
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID 10/26/2008 - 1/24/2009
LOCATION FS(FT) 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
OHIO RIVER
OWENSBORO 40 19.0 19.4 23.0 27.8 33.1 40.2 41.4
NEWBURGH LOWER 38 15.9 19.3 25.5 30.2 36.8 43.6 44.4
EVANSVILLE 42 15.3 17.6 23.0 27.6 33.2 41.2 42.7
MOUNT VERNON 35 23.7 24.1 25.5 27.7 31.9 40.1 41.9
JT MYERS LOWER 37 16.9 19.4 24.0 29.3 36.2 42.3 43.5
SHAWNEETOWN 33 17.4 18.9 23.1 27.4 34.0 41.8 43.4
GOLCONDA 40 29.6 29.8 30.6 32.7 36.2 40.5 41.2
GREEN RIVER
PARADISE 380 368.1 369.1 373.9 380.1 385.0 390.7 398.4
CALHOUN 23 11.8 12.2 14.4 15.9 17.2 23.9 29.2
SPOTTSVILLE 12.2 12.4 14.8 18.4 23.3 32.2 33.9
WABASH RIVER
NEW HARMONY 15 3.8 5.0 8.3 12.6 15.4 17.8 18.5
PATOKA RIVER
PRINCETON 18 6.5 7.4 8.5 12.3 17.1 19.4 20.4
LITTLE WABASH RIVER
CARMI 27 10.9 12.3 16.1 22.1 29.8 34.2 35.6
SKILLET FORK RIVER
WAYNE CITY 15 5.6 6.0 7.0 8.5 12.3 19.7 20.5
OCTOBER HAS SEEN AROUND ONE EVENT PER WEEK THAT HAS PRODUCED RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST AMOUNTS ARE BETWEEN ONE-HALF AND ONE AND
ONE-HALF INCH. FOR THE MONTH...MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA ARE
UP TO ONE-HALF INCH BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE 1 TO 2 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
SINCE JUNE...MOST LOCATIONS ARE 3 TO 5 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. TO
DATE...PADUCAH HAS RECEIVED 43.70 INCHES...4.56 INCHES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE YEAR. EVANSVILLE HAS RECEIVED 45.18 INCHES...
9.65 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.
SOIL MOISTURE IS BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST
DROUGHT MONITOR HAS MOST OF WEST KENTUCKY AS DRY WITH THE FIRST
LEVEL OF DROUGHT IN THE PENNYRILE AND THE SOUTHEAST SECTION OF
THE PURCHASE AREAS. SEVERAL COUNTIES IN WEST KENTUCKY STILL HAVE
BURN BANS.
THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK...FOR OCTOBER 29 THROUGH NOVEMBER 4...
CALLS FOR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. DURING THIS TIME...NORMAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE 51 TO 53 DEGREES AND NORMAL TOTAL PRECIPITATION DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD IS BETWEEN 0.80 AND 0.90 INCHES. THE 90 DAY OUTLOOK
FOR NOVEMBER THROUGH JANUARY CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS FOR PRECIPITATION. THE TERM
CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS MEANS THERE ARE EQUAL CHANCES FOR
BELOW NORMAL...NORMAL...AND ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS.
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES
THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR
MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS
OF THE RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE
COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIA
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.
AS HYDROLOGIC MODELS ARE CALIBRATED AT VARIOUS RIVER FORECAST
CENTERS...THAT SERVE THE WFO PADUCAH HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL YEARS...MORE AND MORE FORECAST POINTS
ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE ADDED TO THIS PRODUCT.
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON
THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PADUCAH (ALL LOWER CASE)
$$
LAMM
