Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS74 KMRX 191500
ESFMRX
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1000 AM FRI FEB 19 2010
...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR EAST TENNESSEE...EXTREME
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR SPRING 2010 IS ABOVE NORMAL.
EXISTING CONDITIONS...
SNOW PACK...
CURRENT SNOW PACK CONDITIONS ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS
ARE SNOW FREE OR NEARLY SO. HOWEVER, ELEVATIONS ABOVE ABOUT 2000 FEET HAVE
SNOWPACK OVER MOST OF THE REGION. SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM 6 TO 20 INCHES IN
THE LOWER MOUNTAINS AND FROM 20 TO 40 INCHES IN THE HIGHEST RANGES ALONG THE
NORTH CAROLINA BORDER AND IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
SOIL MOISTURE...
BECAUSE OF ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL DURING THE FALL AND EARLY WINTER AND THEN
SUBSEQUENT FRIGID TEMPERATURES SOIL MOISTURE HAS BEEN HELD CAPTIVE LONGER
THAN IS NORMAL. THERE ARE STILL MANY PLACES WITH PONDING OF WATER AND MUDDY
CONDITIONS WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH.
STREAMFLOWS...
STREAM CONDITIONS VARY WIDELY ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE LOWER RUN OF THE
LARGER RIVERS IN EAST TENNESSEE...FLOWS TEND TO BE EITHER NEAR NORMAL OR
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DATE. HOWEVER...IN THE UPPER REACHES OF RIVERS HEADING
IN NORTH CAROLINA FLOWS ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. IN THE HEADWATER AREAS IN
VIRGINIA FLOWS TEND TO BE BELOW NORMAL.
IN THE SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION...FLOWS TEND TO BE NEAR NORMAL
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE. THIS IS RELATED TO THE HIGH SOIL MOISTURE.
TENNESSEE RIVER BASIN RESERVOIR LEVELS...
FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE FOR THE TENNESSEE RIVER BASIN ABOVE CHATTANOOGA IS ONLY
97% OF NORMAL FOR THE DATE. THIS MEANS THAT THE BASIN AS A WHOLE IS MORE FULL
THAN NORMAL WITH LESS ROOM TO STORE RUNOFF THAN IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
RAINFALL...
FOR THE LAST 30 DAYS...PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME
OF YEAR. MOST OF THE REGION HAS RECEIVED OVER 110% OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
THE PERIOD...WITH SOME SECTIONS RECEIVING NEARLY 150% OF NORMAL. HOWEVER...MOST
OF THIS HAS BEEN SNOW AND SO RUNOFF HAS BEEN KEPT TO A MINIMUM. DURING THE LAST
7 TO 14 DAYS...LITTLE PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN IN MOST AREAS. AGAIN...MOST OF
WHAT HAS FALLEN HAS BEEN SNOW AND SO THIS IS HELD IN STORAGE WITH THE EXTREME
COLD. IT IS JUST A MATTER OF TIME UNTIL IT MELTS. IF IT MELTS QUICKLY...FLOODING
COULD WELL RESULT. IF IT MELTS SLOWLY...FLOODING IS LESS LIKELY. MORE ON THIS
BELOW.
METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK...
FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 10 DAYS A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION WITH LOWS
STAYING ABOVE FREEZING EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. COUPLED WITH
A MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SOME OF THE
SNOW PACK IS CERTAIN TO MELT. THE DEGREE AND SPEED OF THE MELTING WILL BEAR
WATCHING.
FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH CLIMATE PREDICTIONS SHOW A GOOD CHANCE OF COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. ASSUMING THIS HOLDS MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW...
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MARCH IS NORMALLY THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION MONTH IN THE REGION...WITH MAY RUNNING A CLOSE SECOND.
FOR THE LONGER TERM PERIOD OF APRIL AND MAY...A SLIGHT WARMING AND DRYING TREND
IS EXPECTED.
SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK...EXPECTED NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
PATTERNS...AND HIGH SOIL MOISTURE...WITH COLD GROUND ALLOWING FOR MORE RUNOFF...
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR SPRING IS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT
FLOODING IS INEVITABLE. IT DOES...HOWEVER...MEAN THAT IN A REGION WHERE LATE
WINTER AND EARLY SPRING ARE INFAMOUS AS THE FLOOD SEASON...WE WILL NEED TO BE
ON OUR TOES REGARDING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SNOW MELT...HEAVY RAIN EVENTS AND
SUBSEQUENT HIGH WATER.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THIS OUTLOOK WAS CREATED WITH INPUT FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST
CENTER...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY...
STATE AND COUNTY OFFICIALS...AND VARIOUS COOPERATIVE WEATHER SPOTTERS. FOR
MORE INFORMATION THE FOLLOWING WEBSITES ARE USEFUL:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MORRISTOWN
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LMRFC
WWW.WATERDATA.USGS.GOV
WWW.TVA.GOV
WWW.TENNESSEE.GOV/ENVIRONMENT
WWW.DEQ.VIRGINIA.GOV
WWW.NCWATER.ORG
DROUGHT.UNL.EDU
WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
YOU CAN ALSO CONTACT...
GENERAL WEATHER INFORMATION OR FORECASTS...CALL 423-586-3771
FOR INFORMATION RELATED TO THIS OUTLOOK CONTACT...
BRIAN BOYD, SENIOR METEOROLOGIST/SENIOR SERVICE HYDROLOGIST
423-586-2296 GENERAL PUBLIC (MAY REACH VOICE MAIL)
423-586-1964 MEDIA ONLY PLEASE
OR WRITE BRIAN.BOYD@NOAA.GOV
$$
