Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS73 KLMK 051447 CCA
ESFLMK
INC019-025-037-043-061-077-117-123-143-175-KYC001-003-005-009-
017-021-027-029-031-045-049-053-057-073-079-085-087-091-093-103-
111-123-137-141-151-155-163-167-169-171-179-181-183-185-209-211-
213-215-217-223-229-239-191200-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
0900 AM EST FRI MAR 05 2010
...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 2...
THIS OUTLOOK COVERS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND
THE OHIO RIVER FROM MADISON INDIANA TO TELL CITY INDIANA.
THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FROM MARCH 5 THROUGH MARCH 19 2009.
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE
RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
EXAMPLE: THE KENTUCKY RIVER AT FRANKFORT LOCK HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 31
FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 25 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER WILL
RISE ABOVE 25.0 FEET.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD 3/8/2010 - 6/3/2010
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- ---
OHIO RIVER
CLIFTY CREEK 451 437.9 442.8 447.5 451.1 454.9 458.3
MCALPINE UPPER 23 17.1 19.4 23.4 27.6 32.5 36.3
MCALPINE LOWER 55 43.9 49.1 54.2 58.6 64.0 67.4
CANNELTON LOCK 42 36.9 40.6 43.3 45.1 49.0 50.7
TELL CITY 38 35.6 39.9 42.7 44.4 47.3 48.8
KENTUCKY RIVER
FORD LOCK 26 17.1 18.3 19.9 22.7 27.5 31.0
HIGH BRIDGE LOCK 30 17.8 18.7 21.7 25.5 32.7 38.5
FRANKFORT LOCK 31 12.9 13.9 19.3 25.0 32.1 39.1
SALT RIVER
SHEPHERDSVILLE 32 6.8 7.4 10.0 14.1 26.5 33.7
ROLLING FORK RIVER
BOSTON 35 22.5 26.0 31.8 39.9 44.5 46.0
MUSCATATUCK RIVER
DEPUTY 20 10.8 14.4 18.2 21.2 23.5 27.2
GREEN RIVER
MUNFORDVILLE 28 11.7 14.4 17.9 26.0 36.7 45.1
BROWNSVILLE 18 12.9 13.7 15.0 18.3 25.1 25.3
WOODBURY 33 21.8 27.6 34.4 39.0 45.2 46.9
ROCHESTER 17 13.2 14.8 17.3 20.9 24.2 27.2
BARREN RIVER
BOWLING GREEN 28 11.5 14.6 17.5 23.5 27.3 33.2
ROUGH RIVER
DUNDEE 25 15.3 18.2 21.3 25.1 28.3 29.2
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...
SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS
ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS).
THIS OUTLOOK CALLS FOR A NORMAL CHANCE OF FLOODING DUE TO CURRENT
CONDITIONS OF GROUND MOISTURE...RIVER FLOWS...SNOW PACK...AND
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. MINOR FLOODING MEANS
MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY DAMAGE...BUT POSSIBLY SOME PUBLIC THREAT OR
INCONVENIENCE.
SNOWMELT AND ICE JAMS ARE USUALLY NOT A FACTOR IN FLOODING IN THIS
PART OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...A HEAVY SNOWPACK IN WEST VIRGINA AND
PENNSYLVANIA WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF LIQUID MIGHT CAUSE HIGH FLOWS ON
THE OHIO RIVER IF A MELT OCCURS QUICKLY. HOWEVER...FLOODING ON OTHER
STREAMS WILL BE DETERMINED BY RAINFALL.
FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY...PRECIPITATION WAS ONE TO TWO INCHES
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...LESS THAN AN INCH BELOW IN
SOUTHERN INDIANA. STREAMFLOWS AND SOIL MOISTURE WERE ALSO BELOW
NORMAL BUT RESERVOIR LEVELS WERE NEAR NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT
SNOWPACK REMAINS IN THIS AREA. GROUND WAS NOT FROZEN.
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL OF UP TO A HALF INCH WILL CAUSE
SOME RISES ON SMALL STREAMS...HOWEVER NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK...VALID MARCH 11 THROUGH 17 CALLS
FOR NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AT THIS
TIME OF YEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS AROUND SIXTH TENTHS OF AN INCH
AND NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 45.
THE OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH IS FOR BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS BETWEEN FOUR AND FIVE INCHES.
THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR MARCH THROUGH MAY CALLS FOR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL SPRING AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR THIS
SEASON UNLESS CONDITIONS CHANGE.
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS FOR LONG RANGE
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT
WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/FORECASTS. CURRENT SNOWPACK DATA ARE
AVAILABLE AT WWW.NOHRSC.NWS.GOV/NSA. CURRENT STREAMFLOW DATA ARE
AVAILABLE AT WATER.USGS.GOV/WATCHWATCH. CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE DATA
ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/SOILMST_MONITORING. VISIT
OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE FOR MORE LOCAL WEATHER AND
STREAM INFORMATION.
$$
CMC
