Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS73 KLMK 311923
ESFLMK
INC019-025-037-043-061-077-117-123-143-175-KYC001-003-005-009-
017-021-027-029-031-045-049-053-057-073-079-085-087-091-093-103-
111-123-137-141-151-155-163-167-169-171-179-181-183-185-209-211-
213-215-217-223-229-239-301200-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
0313 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2008
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE ENABLES THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER
OUTLOOKS...
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE
RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
EXAMPLE: THE KENTUCKY RIVER AT FRANKFORT LOCK HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 31
FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 25 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER WILL
RISE ABOVE 16.7 FEET.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD 11/2/2008 - 1/31/2009
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- ---
OHIO RIVER
CLIFTY CREEK 451 425.3 428.4 433.7 437.9 446.5 449.1
MCALPINE UPPER 23 12.5 12.6 14.9 17.2 22.3 25.2
MCALPINE LOWER 55 23.9 29.6 37.5 44.0 52.9 56.2
CANNELTON LOCK 42 19.6 24.3 31.6 36.7 42.4 44.4
TELL CITY 38 19.7 23.2 30.5 35.3 41.9 43.7
KENTUCKY RIVER
FORD LOCK 26 14.0 15.3 17.4 18.9 20.8 27.8
HIGH BRIDGE LOCK 30 14.6 15.8 17.8 19.9 22.9 42.3
FRANKFORT LOCK 31 10.2 11.2 13.4 16.7 21.0 38.0
SALT RIVER
SHEPHERDSVILLE 32 2.5 4.3 5.7 8.3 12.3 19.0
ROLLING FORK RIVER
BOSTON 35 12.8 19.1 28.3 35.5 40.7 42.0
MUSCATATUCK RIVER
DEPUTY 20 10.2 14.1 18.1 20.9 22.6 27.6
GREEN RIVER
MUNFORDVILLE 28 6.7 8.8 13.5 18.4 24.0 41.2
BROWNSVILLE 18 11.0 12.2 13.9 15.0 19.7 28.3
WOODBURY 33 16.2 23.7 32.2 36.7 41.0 44.5
ROCHESTER 17 11.7 13.7 16.0 18.2 21.5 24.6
BARREN RIVER
BOWLING GREEN 28 10.0 13.7 18.0 21.3 27.3 31.2
ROUGH RIVER
DUNDEE 25 11.8 15.6 18.8 23.2 28.4 29.0
FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER...PRECIPITATION IS RUNNING FROM AN INCH
ABOVE NORMAL TO AN INCH BELOW NORMAL WITH THE WETTEST LOCATIONS
IN THE SOUTHWEST. NORMAL PRECPITATION IS BETWEEN TWO AND THREE
INCHES.
THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK...CALLS FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL. NORMAL PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME OF YEAR IS ABOUT FOUR
TENTHS OF AN INCH.
THE 30 AND 90 DAY OUTLOOKS...CALLS FOR PRECIPITIATION TO BE NEAR
NORMAL.
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...
SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...
THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS).
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/LMK (ALL LOWER CASE)
$$
CMC
