Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS73 KFGF 152045
ESFFGF
MNC005-007-027-029-051-057-069-077-087-107-111-113-119-125-073-
135-159-167-NDC003-005-017-019-027-035-039-063-067-071-077-081-
091-095-097-099-201200-
WATER RESOURCES AND DROUGHT OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
345 PM THU MAY 15 2008
...WATER RESOURCES STATEMENT AND OUTLOOK...
THIS OUTLOOK COVERS THE GRAND FORKS HYDROLOGIC SERVICE
AREA...HSA...WHICH ENCOMPASSES 35 COUNTIES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. THE PRIMARY RIVER BASINS ARE
THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH...RED LAKE AND SHEYENNE RIVERS AND THEIR
TRIBUTARIES. MAJOR LAKE BASINS INCLUDE DEVILS LAKE...THE UPPER AND
LOWER RED LAKES AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF LAKE OF THE WOODS.
...DRY NORTH AND WEST TO WET SOUTH AND EAST...
.SYNOPSIS...
THERE HAS BEEN TREMENDOUS VARIABILITY IN THE RECENT WEATHER ACROSS
THE GRAND FORKS HSA. CONDITIONS RANGE FROM DROUGHT TO ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL. A WEAKENING LA NINA
HAS IMPACTED THE REGIONS WEATHER THIS WINTER AND SPRING...WITH ITS
INFLUENCE LIKELY TO LINGER SOME INTO THE SUMMER SEASON.
.LOCAL AREA AFFECTED...
THE DEVILS LAKE AND NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY ARE THE DRIEST WITH
THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA LAKES COUNTRY
WETTEST. MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT COVERS THE TOWNER AND RAMSEY
COUNTY AREAS...WITH MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
LISTED AS ABNORMALLY DRY. ACROSS MINNESOTA...THE NORTHWEST CORNER IS
CONSIDERED ABNORMALLY DRY. THESE AREAS ARE NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM EAST GRAND FORKS TO THIEF RIVER FALLS AND WARROAD. SMALL PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA LAKES
COUNTRY ARE ALSO DRY...BUT MOST AREAS RECEIVED HEAVY APRIL RAIN AND
SNOW THAT HELPED ALLEVIATE THE DRY CONDITIONS.
.CLIMATE SUMMARY...
THERE HAS BEEN TREMENDOUS VARIABILITY ACROSS THE GRAND FORKS HSA THE
PAST TWO MONTHS. THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND ADJACENT LAKES
COUNTRY HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY WET...WHILE THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
AND DEVILS LAKE BASINS HAVE BEEN DRY. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN 4 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SINCE MID MARCH WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
IN THE WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA LAKES COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL WAS
NEAR NORMAL IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...THE WATER CONTENT WAS ABOUT
HALF OF AVERAGE. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...EXCESSIVE APRIL SNOWFALL
HAS ALL BUT ERADICATED THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
.SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT...
PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HIGHEST AVAILABLE DEEP SOIL
MOISTURE CONTENT WAS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY FROM THE
DAKOTAS BORDER TO THE FARGO/MOORHEAD AREA...THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE DETROIT LAKES...FERGUS FALLS AREAS. THE DRIEST CONDITIONS WERE
IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND DEVILS LAKE REGION.
ISOLATED DRY CONDITIONS ALSO EXIST IN THE WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
LAKES COUNTRY AROUND ELBOW LAKE AND FERGUS FALLS. RECENT RAINFALL
HAS HELPED IMPROVE THE TOP SOIL CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY...YET IS STILL QUITE DRY OVERALL.
.RIVER AND STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...
A WIDE VARIETY OF STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS EXIST ON THE MAIN STEM RED
RIVER. TRIBUTARIES ON EITHER SIDE ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 50 PERCENT
OF NORMAL FLOWS. SOME LOCATIONS WERE EXPERIENCING VERY LOW FLOWS...
SUCH AS THE MAPLE RIVER NEAR HOPE AT ONLY 8 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND
THE THIEF RIVER NEAR THIEF RIVER FALLS AT ONLY 19 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
DUE TO THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINTER PRECIPITATION AND EXTENDED
MELT...VERY LITTLE FLOODING OCCURRED DURING THE 2008 SPRING.
BELOW ARE SOME CURRENT AND NORMAL STREAMFLOWS FOR 7AM CDT THURSDAY
MAY 15. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE USGS.
STATION CURRENT FLOW CFS MEAN FLOW CFS PERCENT OF MEAN
WAHPETON ND 1538 1350 114
FARGO ND 2560 1180 216
HALSTAD MN 3520 4070 86
EAST GRAND FORKS MN 5350 5820 91
DRAYTON ND 6040 9560 63
PEMBINA ND 6720 17160 39
.PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
THE OUTLOOK THROUGH THE END OF MAY IS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
PREDOMINANT NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE BRINGING UNSEASONALLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST AREAS WILL
EXPERIENCE BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.
THE OUTLOOK FOR THE SUMMER MONTHS OF JUNE...JULY AND AUGUST IS FOR
NORMAL CLIMATIC VARIABILITY IN TEMPERATURE. THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY
FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE SUMMER SEASON.
THERE IS A BETTER THAN AVERAGE LIKELIHOOD FOR BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL
DURING JUNE...JULY AND AUGUST.
AS A RESULT OF THE PREDICTED WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS SUMMER...LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS IN THE GRAND
FORKS HSA. YOUR NWS WILL MONITOR THE CONDITIONS AND ISSUE UPDATES AS
NEEDED.
.QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION
PLEASE CONTACT...
MARK EWENS
DROUGHT FOCAL POINT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
GRAND FORKS ND 58201
TELEPHONE 701.772.0720 X327
MARK.EWENS@NOAA.GOV
.RELATED WEB SITES...
LOCAL AND NATIONAL WEATHER...CLIMATE AND WATER INFORMATION...
LOCAL NWS SITE
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FGF ALL LOWER CASE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...
THESE WEB SITES ARE PROVIDED FOR REFERENCE AND INFORMATION. YOUR
NOAAS NWS MAKES NO CLAIMS TO THE CONTENT OF NON NOAA WEB SITES.
UNITES STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY
USGS HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV
U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS
USACE HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/INDEX.HTML
.ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE
USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN
GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE
EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.
.NEXT ISSUANCE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ISSUANCE OF THE WATER RESOURCES STATEMENT AND
OUTLOOK WILL BE AROUND JUNE 19TH 2008 UNLESS CONDITIONS WARRANT.
AS A REMINDER...STARTING ON JUNE 10 2008...THE WATER RESOURCES AND
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED USING THE
COMMUNICATIONS HEADER BISDGTFGF. THE WMO HEADER WILL BE AXUS73 KFGF.
$$
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