Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS73 KPAH 241754
ESFPAH
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-
181-185-191-193-199-INC051-125-129-147-163-173-KYC007-033-035-
039-047-055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-149-157-177-
219-221-225-233-MOC017-023-031-035-133-143-157-181-201-207-223-
151800-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1250 PM CST THU APR 24 2008
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE ENABLES THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER
OUTLOOKS...
IN THE TABLES BELOW...THE PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE
THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT
90 DAYS. EXAMPLE...THE OHIO RIVER AT GOLCONDA HAS A FLOOD
STAGE OF 40 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS AROUND A 25
PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER WILL REACH FLOOD STAGE.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID 4/28/2008 - 7/27/2008
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
BIG MUDDY RIVER
PLUMFIELD 20 14.5 14.6 15.4 17.0 17.8 19.6 21.5 23.6 26.3
MURPHYSBORO 22 13.8 13.8 14.1 15.6 17.4 20.1 23.6 25.6 30.9
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID 4/27/2008 - 7/26/2008
LOCATION FS(FT) 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
OHIO RIVER
OWENSBORO 40 19.3 19.7 26.8 31.6 39.7 42.2 42.9
NEWBURGH LOWER 38 19.1 21.0 29.2 34.3 43.4 45.3 45.4
EVANSVILLE 42 17.7 18.8 25.8 31.0 40.9 43.0 43.5
MOUNT VERNON 35 24.1 24.3 26.7 30.0 39.7 42.5 43.5
JT MYERS LOWER 37 19.4 21.6 27.6 32.4 41.5 46.8 48.4
SHAWNEETOWN 33 18.9 21.0 26.0 30.3 40.7 47.6 49.5
GOLCONDA 40 29.8 30.0 32.2 34.2 39.5 45.5 48.0
GREEN RIVER
PARADISE 380 371.1 371.9 374.4 379.4 385.7 390.6 395.5
CALHOUN 23 13.2 13.4 14.6 16.2 18.7 22.8 29.9
SPOTTSVILLE 13.4 13.7 15.3 19.5 24.9 32.6 35.7
WABASH RIVER
NEW HARMONY 15 8.8 10.0 11.7 14.2 16.8 19.0 20.4
PATOKA RIVER
PRINCETON 18 9.9 11.3 12.8 16.9 21.2 23.7 24.8
LITTLE WABASH RIVER
CARMI 27 12.3 14.5 18.4 23.2 27.8 34.1 36.2
SKILLET FORK RIVER
WAYNE CITY 15 6.4 7.1 8.1 9.4 12.3 18.9 23.2
MARCH WAS A RECORD SETTING MONTH FOR RAINFALL. PADUCAH RECORDED
9.60 INCHES...MAKING IT THE 2ND WETTEST MARCH ON RECORD. EVANSVILLE
INDIANA RECORDED 12.34 INCHES...ALSO THE 2ND WETTEST MARCH. CAPE
GIRARDEAU MISSOURI REPORTED AN ASTOUNDING 17.83 INCHES FOR MARCH
...SETTING A NEW RECORD RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH. THE WETTEST MARCH
WAS ALSO RECORDED AT POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI WITH 12.82 INCHES.
TO DATE...PADUCAH HAS RECEIVED 24.30 INCHES...8.85 INCHES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE YEAR. EVANSVILLE HAS RECEIVED 26.98 INCHES...13.29
INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IS ALMOST TWICE THE NORMAL RAINFALL TO
DATE AT EVANSVILLE.
SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.
MANY STREAMS ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN AT ELEVATED LEVELS BUT MOST
LOCATIONS ARE BELOW FLOOD STAGE. CAPE GIRARDEAU AND THEBES REMAIN
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DUE TO WATER COMING
OUT OF THE MISSOURI BASIN. ON THE ST. FRANCIS RIVER...FISK REMAINS
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AS WAPPAPELLO CONTINUES TO RELEASE WATER THAT
WAS STORED DURING RECENT HEAVY RAINS. CARMI...ON THE LITTLE
WABASH RIVER...WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY WEEK`S END.
THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK...FOR MAY 1 THROUGH 7...CALLS FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION. DURING THIS
TIME...NORMAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE 61 TO 63 DEGREES AND NORMAL
TOTAL PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AROUND 1.10 INCHES.
THE 90 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY THROUGH JULY CALLS FOR CLIMATOLOGICAL
CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. THE TERM
CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS MEANS THERE ARE EQUAL CHANCES FOR
BELOW NORMAL...NORMAL...AND ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS.
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES
THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR
MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS
OF THE RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE
COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIA
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.
AS HYDROLOGIC MODELS ARE CALIBRATED AT VARIOUS RIVER FORECAST
CENTERS...THAT SERVE THE WFO PADUCAH HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL YEARS...MORE AND MORE FORECAST POINTS
ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE ADDED TO THIS PRODUCT.
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON
THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PADUCAH (ALL LOWER CASE)
$$
LAMM
