Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS73 KDLH 241935
ESFDLH
MNC001-017-021-031-035-061-071-075-115-137-WIC003-007-013-031-051-099
-113-129-032300-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
235 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2008
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
VALID 10/27/2008 - 1/25/2009
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE...THE SNAKE RIVER NEAR PINE CITY HAS A
FLOOD STAGE OF 9 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE 3.7 FEET.
FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
______ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___
ST. LOUIS RIVER AT SCANLON
10.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 4.1 4.4 4.5 5.0
PRAIRIE RIVER NEAR TACONITE
10 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.3 3.6
SNAKE RIVER AT PINE CITY
9 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.7 4.1 4.3 4.7 5.4
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT AITKIN
12 5.9 6.1 6.2 6.6 6.8 7.1 7.7 8.6 9.3
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT FORT RIPLEY
10 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.8 6.5 7.6
ABNORMALLY DRY TO MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS COVER A STRIP OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION TO THE EASTERN
IRON RANGE AND ONWARD TO THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR FROM TWO
HARBORS TO NEAR TOFTE. IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF DOUGLAS AND BURNETT COUNTIES. A
SLICE OF SEVERE DROUGHT COVERS FAR SOUTHERN PRICE COUNTY.
ELSEWHERE...MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
RIVER FLOWS OF BELOW OR MUCH BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WERE FOUND IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AT THE BOIS BRULE RIVER AT BRULE...WHITE RIVER
NEAR ASHLAND AND THE BAD RIVER NEAR ODANAH. IN NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA...ONLY THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR CHISHOLM AND THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT GRAND RAPIDS INDICATED BELOW NORMAL FLOWS.
TOPSOIL MOISTURE IS SHORT OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND ADEQUATE
ELSEWHERE. ADEQUATE TO SHORT IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES RANGED FROM 50 TO 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. 50 TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA.
THE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE SHORT TERM INDICATES NORMAL TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE LONG
TERM OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF
ABOVE...NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. THE 90 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER THROUGH JANUARY
INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER... SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A FULL RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS
ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE.
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=DLH FOR
MORE WEATHER AND RIVER INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC
RIVER OUTLOOKS.
$$
