Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS74 KSHV 201930
ESFSHV
TXC001-005-073-225-241-347-365-373-401-403-405-419-423-455-457-
211200-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
129 PM CDT THU NOV 20 2008
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE NECHES RIVER BASIN OF EAST TEXAS...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE (NWS) OFFICE IN SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA
HAS IMPLEMENTED THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS)
FOR THE NECHES RIVER BASIN IN EASTERN TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE
NWS TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS
ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS DURING
THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE...THE MUD CREEK NEAR JACKSONVILLE
TEXAS FLOOD STAGE IS 9 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE
MUD CREEK WILL RISE ABOVE 8.3 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID FOR NOVEMBER 20 2008 - FEBRUARY 18 2008
LOCATION FS 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
------------------ -- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
MUD CREEK
JACKSONVILLE 7E 9 7.2 7.5 7.7 7.9 8.3 8.6 8.9 9.7 10.4
EAST FORK ANGELINA RIVER
CUSHING 4N 10 6.9 8.5 9.2 9.6 9.8 9.9 10.2 10.3 11.0
ANGELINA RIVER
ALTO 8E 19 7.9 11.4 13.0 15.1 16.6 17.3 18.1 18.5 18.9
LUFKIN 8N 10 7.3 9.0 9.9 10.8 11.4 12.3 12.7 13.6 14.2
ATTOYAC BAYOU
CHIRENO 3E 14 11.0 13.6 16.2 17.4 17.9 18.3 18.6 19.9 21.1
AYISH BAYOU
SAN AUGUSTINE 10S 12 6.7 8.9 10.1 10.6 11.5 12.0 12.7 12.9 13.6
NECHES RIVER
NECHES 4NE 12 11.0 11.0 12.0 13.4 14.1 14.7 15.1 15.5 16.3
ALTO 8SW 16 11.2 11.7 14.0 15.2 16.4 17.1 17.5 17.7 18.0
DIBOLL 4S 12 9.6 11.8 12.2 12.7 13.2 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.5
ROCKLAND 26 7.6 10.0 12.4 13.0 15.1 16.6 18.9 20.9 21.9
LOCATION 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
------------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
LK PALESTINE 345.5 345.5 345.6 345.7 345.8 346.1 346.3 346.5 346.8
THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS PROBABILITIES COMPUTED
USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL CLIMATOLOGICAL
AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE PROBABILITIES ALSO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CURRENT RIVER FLOWS AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. BY PROVIDING THE
COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE LEVEL OF RISK
ASSOCIATED WITH LONG RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED.
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT THIS URL: HTTP://AHPS.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=SHV
(INTERNET ADDRESS URL IS ALL LOWER CASE).
LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.
$$
10
