Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS73 KDDC 241416
ESFDDC
KSC007-047-055-057-069-075-083-093-119-135-145-165-185-242016-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
916 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY OFFICE HAS RECENTLY
IMPLEMENTED LONG RANGE AHPS RIVER OUTLOOKS FOR SOME OF ITS FORECAST
LOCATIONS. THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED MONTHLY AROUND MID-MONTH.
THESE OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED IN ADDITION TO THE 3 DAY RIVER
FORECASTS THAT ARE ISSUED WHEN RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS ARE IN FLOOD
OR FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE
THE CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN
THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
A BRIEF EXPLANATION OF THE METHODOLOGY USED IN CREATING THESE
FORECASTS IS GIVEN BELOW THE TABLE.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID OCTOBER 24, 2008 - JANUARY 22, 2009
LOCATION FS 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
ARKANSAS RIVER
COOLIDGE 8.0 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.7 4.0 4.5
SYRACUSE 1S 10.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.0
GARDEN CITY 10.0 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.4 6.6
DODGE CITY 11.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 7.5
KINSLEY 12.0 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 6.0 6.9
WALNUT CREEK
ALEXANDER 4W 31.0 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 8.2 14.5 19.4
NEKOMA 29.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 14.3 19.2 23.9
BUCKNER CREEK
BURDETT 6W 16.0 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 13.0
PAWNEE RIVER
BURDETT 7WNW 30.0 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 5.8
SANFORD 24.0 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 13.8
RATTLESNAKE CREEK
MACKSVILLE 8SE 9.0 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.1 5.6 5.8 6.2 6.9
ZENITH 10NNW 17.0 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.3 13.9 14.3 14.9 16.0
CROOKED CREEK
ENGLEWOOD 12W 6.5 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5 4.3 6.1
CIMARRON RIVER
FORGAN 8NNE 5.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.3
MEDICINE LODGE RIVER
KIOWA 2NE 10 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.7 3.7 5.4 7.0
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE
YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS
ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS).
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND THE END
OF EACH MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=DDC FOR
MORE WEATHER AND RIVER INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC
RIVER OUTLOOKS.
$$
