Weather for Detroit Lakes, Minnesota
Lat: 46.81N, Lon: 95.84W
Wx Zone: MNZ027
CWA Used: FGF
Minnesota Drought MonitorThe Minnesota Drought monitor is a subset of the United States Monitor, issued every Thursday morning, based on drought conditions the previous Tuesday. The map below shows the current drought level around the state, and the percent of Minnesota land area in each drought level compared to the previous week. Read an explanation of the drought intensities and what they mean. |
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Minnesota Hydrologic Information StatementNote that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
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FGUS73 KFGF 241413
ESFFGF
NDC005-027-071-301200-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
0914 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
...DEVILS LAKE OUTLOOK FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL...
DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
FROM MAY 23, 2013 TO NOVEMBER 30, 2013
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS PROVIDING MONTHLY UPDATES OF
THE LONG-RANGE OUTLOOK FOR HIGH WATER IN DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES.
THESE AND THEIR ASSOCIATED WEB GRAPHICS
ARE VALID FOR THE PERIOD...
FROM MAY 23, 2013 TO NOVEMBER 30, 2013.
. CHANCES OF DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES RISING ABOVE GIVEN LAKE LEVELS...
THE PROBABILTY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED LAKE LEVEL IS THAT
PERCENTAGE OF ALL MODEL CASES RUN WERE ABOVE THAT SPECIFIED
FOR THE WHOLE VALID PERIOD OF THE OUTLOOK.
FOR EXAMPLE THE THERE IS A 50 PER CENT CHANCE THAT DEVILS LAKE
WILL RISE ABOVE ****.* FEET DURING THE VALID PERIOD AND ONLY A
5 PER CENT CHANCE THAT IT WILL RISE ABOVE ****.* FEET.
PROBABILITIES FOR EXCEEDING LISTED LAKE LEVELS
FROM 5/23/2013 TO 9/30/2013
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
DEVILS LAKE.....
CREEL BAY 1453.6 1453.7 1453.7 1453.8 1453.9 1454.5 1455.6
STUMP LAKE.....
EAST STUMP LAKE 1453.6 1453.7 1453.7 1453.8 1453.9 1454.5 1455.6
. CURRENT AND PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH LAKE LEVELS...
* THE CURRENT HEIGHT OF DEVILS LAKE AT CREEL BAY IS 1453.0 FEET
* THE CURRENT HEIGHT OF STUMP LAKE NEAR LAKOTA IS 1452.5 FEET
* THE MOST RECENT USGS PROVISIONAL RECORD DAILY AVERAGE HEIGHT
FOR DEVILS LAKE AT THE CREEL BAY GAGE:
...1454.30 FEET ON JUNE 27 OF 2011
* PREVIOUS RECORDS:
...1452.05 FEET ON JUNE 27 OF 2010
...1450.93 FEET ON JUNE 27 OF 2009
...1449.20 FEET ON MAY 9 OF 2006
...1449.18 FEET ON JUNE 17 OF 2004
...1449.17 FEET ON AUGUST 2 OF 2005
* FOR MORE HIGH WATER MARKS...SEE THE USGS FLOOD TRACKING CHARTS AT:
HTTP://ND.WATER.USGS.GOV/FLOODTRACKING
. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...
WIND AND WAVE FORECASTS FOR DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES ARE AVAILABLE FOR
A SEVEN DAY PERIOD WHEN THE LAKES ARE SUFFICIENTLY ICE-FREE AT:
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FGF/HYDRO/LAKE_FCST.PHP
ADDITIONALLY...7 DAY LAKE EVAPORATION FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE
DURING THE GROWING SEASON AT:
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FGF/CLIMATE/FARM_INFO.PHP
THE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON HIGH AND LOW LAKE
LEVELS THAT WERE CALCULATED FOR THE SPECIFIED PERIOD USING MULTIPLE
SCENARIOS FROM 60 YEARS (1949-2009) OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
DATA AND CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE LAKE, SNOWCOVER (IN WINTER)...
AND SOIL MOISTURE...AS WELL AS THE SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PROVIDED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER, DETAILS OF THE CLIMATE OUTLOOK USED ARE AVAILABLE
FROM THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF LAKE LEVEL PROBABILITIES, THE
AMOUNT OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE PART OF NOAAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES
(AHPS).
THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS PROBABILITY GRAPHS OF LAKE HEIGHT
FOR THE FULL PERIOD AS WELL AS WEEKLY PROBABILITIES. THE OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS AND EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP IN INTERPRETING THESE OUTLOOKS
ARE AVAILABLE FROM...
THE NWS GRAND FORKS AHPS PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT:
WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS
CLICK ON RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS LINK
OUTLOOK GRAPHICS OF THE PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING VARIOUS LAKE
LEVELS FOR DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES ARE ALSO ON OUR WEB SITE. MONTHLY
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE USUALLY ISSUED ON THE FRIDAY OF THE WEEK
FOLLOWING THE FIRST THURSDAY AFTER THE 15TH OF THE MONTH...USUALLY
THE THIRD OR FOURTH WEEK OF THE MONTH.
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS...CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-772-0720
$$
TEAM FGF
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