Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS74 KFWD 151959
ESFFWD
TXC001-027-035-085-093-097-099-113-119-121-133-139-143-145-147-161-
181-193-213-217-221-223-231-237-251-257-277-281-289-293-309-331-333-
337-349-363-367-379-395-397-425-429-439-467-497-503-160759-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
259 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2008
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE SABINE RIVER BASIN IN NORTH TEXAS...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN FORT WORTH TEXAS HAS
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR THE
SABINE RIVER BASIN IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC
OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE SOUTH FORK OF THE SABINE RIVER NEAR
QUINLAN HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 15 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE THE QUINLAN FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE
5.4 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID 5/15/08 - 8/13/08
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
SOUTH FORK SABINE RIVER
QUINLAN 15.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.4 6.3 12.7 15.5 16.2
COWLEECH FORK SABINE RIVER
GREENVILLE 14.0 6.0 7.2 9.9 11.5 14.3 15.1 15.6 15.8 16.5
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED.
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT: HTTP://AHPS.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=FWD
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.
$$
