Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS73 KOAX 261939
ESFOAX
IA-C071-085-129-133-137-145-155-NEC023-025-067-095-107-127-131-147-15
1-159-071800-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
239 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2008
...LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK...
VALID SEPTEMBER 01 2008 TO NOVEMBER 30 2008
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS) ENABLE THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER
OUTLOOKS...
IN THE TABLE BELOW, THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE WEEPING WATER CREEK AT UNION...NEBRASKA
HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 25.0 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE 17.3 FEET.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES IN FEET AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID SEPTEMBER 01 2008 - NOVEMBER 30 2008
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
MAPLE RIVER
MAPLETON IA 21.0 5.5 5.6 5.7 6.0 6.1 6.5 7.2 7.8 8.6
LITTLE SIOUX R
TURIN IA 4S 20.0 6.9 6.9 7.3 7.9 8.2 8.5 9.9 10.8 13.3
SOLDIER RIVER
PISGAH IA 1E 28.0 2.9 2.9 3.4 4.4 5.7 6.2 6.7 8.2 10.2
BOYER RIVER
LOGAN IA 19.0 3.0 3.1 3.4 4.7 5.9 7.0 8.2 11.4 17.3
WEEPING WATER C
UNION NE 25.0 1.9 2.0 3.0 4.3 5.1 6.4 8.1 17.3 24.3
E. NISHNABOTNA R
RED OAK IA 18.0 4.9 5.6 6.7 7.2 8.3 8.6 12.0 13.8 17.9
W. NISHNABOTNA R
HANCOCK IA 14.0 1.1 1.4 2.4 3.3 4.1 5.3 6.2 7.3 16.6
RANDOLPH IA 19.0 7.7 8.8 9.5 10.1 10.9 11.1 12.7 13.6 22.6
NISHNABOTNA R
HAMBURG IA 23.0 8.0 8.3 9.6 10.4 11.3 11.8 14.0 16.3 22.6
LITTLE NEMAHA R
AUBURN NE 1E 22.0 2.9 3.7 4.0 5.0 7.1 8.9 10.2 11.7 16.2
N FK BIG NEMAHA R
HUMBOLDT NE 28.0 2.7 3.0 3.9 5.3 6.4 7.9 8.7 10.6 13.8
BIG NEMAHA R
FALLS CITY NE 23.0 5.5 6.9 8.2 9.4 11.1 13.7 17.0 19.8 23.4
NODAWAY RIVER
CLARINDA IA 1E 19.0 5.9 6.8 7.2 8.7 9.3 10.0 10.9 12.7 22.2
PONCA CREEK
VERDEL NE 12.0 4.2 4.2 4.2 5.7 6.5 7.0 7.6 8.5 10.0
NIOBRARA R
VERDEL NE 7.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.9 4.3
BIG BLUE R
SURPRISE NE 7.0 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.8 2.5 2.9 3.5 3.8 6.2
LINCOLN CREEK
SEWARD NE 15.0 4.6 4.6 4.6 5.6 7.9 8.9 9.7 12.5 15.5
BIG BLUE R
SEWARD NE 18.0 1.8 1.8 2.2 2.6 4.0 5.4 5.8 9.4 15.0
W FK BIG BLUE R
DORCHESTER NE 15.0 3.6 3.7 5.3 6.3 8.1 9.8 14.6 18.1 20.3
BIG BLUE R
CRETE NE 18.0 7.9 8.3 9.3 11.0 12.0 14.1 19.2 21.3 24.5
TURKEY CR
WILBER NE 11.0 2.9 3.1 5.1 6.9 8.0 9.6 10.6 12.3 13.5
BIG BLUE R
BEATRICE NE 16.0 3.6 4.5 5.8 6.5 8.0 10.1 12.6 14.5 18.4
BARNESTON NE 20.0 4.7 5.7 6.3 8.0 9.7 12.0 13.5 15.4 21.2
LITTLE BLUE R
FAIRBURY NE 15.0 8.0 8.9 10.1 11.6 12.3 13.0 14.3 15.7 18.3
THE NUMBERS CONTAINED IN THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
REPRESENT NATURAL FLOWS. THAT IS...FLOWS UNAFFECTED BY MAN-MADE
STRUCTURES IN THE BASIN SUCH AS DIVERSION DAMS AND RESERVOIRS.
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE
COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH
LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS).
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF THE
MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR. THE NEXT SCHEDULED OUTLOOK FOR THESE
SITES WILL BE ISSUED AROUND THE WEEK OF SEPTEMBER 22...2008. FOR
MORE INFORMATION ABOUT AHPS...PLEASE REFER TO:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=OAX (ALL LOWER CASE)
$$
REESE
