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Lat: 41.48N, Lon: 81.68W
Wx Zone: OHZ011 CWA Used: CLE

Ohio Drought Monitor

The Ohio Drought monitor is a subset of the United States Monitor, issued every Thursday morning, based on drought conditions the previous Tuesday. The map below shows the current drought level around the state, and the percent of Ohio land area in each drought level compared to the previous week.

Read an explanation of the drought intensities and what they mean.

Ohio Drought Monitor

Ohio Hydrologic Information Statement

Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.

000
FGUS71 KCLE 192019
ESFCLE
OHC005-007-033-035-043-055-063-075-077-083-085-093-095-099-101-
103-117-123-133-139-143-147-151-153-155-169-173-175-PAC039-049-
021615-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
419 PM EST THU MAR 19 2015

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK NUMBER 6...

...THE FLOOD THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS NORTHWEST 
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH LATE MARCH...

AN ABOVE NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING MEANS WIDESPREAD FLOODING
COULD OCCUR WITH WATER LEVELS POSSIBLY HAVING MODERATE OR MAJOR
IMPACTS. A NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL MEANS OCCASIONAL FLOODING COULD
OCCUR WITH WATER LEVELS HAVING MINOR IMPACTS. THIS IS THE SIXTH
ISSUANCE OF THE WINTER AND SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND. FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED
BIWEEKLY DURING THE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING TO SUMMARIZE CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS NORTHERN
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

FACTORS TO CONSIDER WHEN ASSESSING FLOOD POTENTIAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE CURRENT RIVER AND RESERVOIR LEVELS...SNOW PACK DEPTH AND
WATER CONTENT...ICE COVERAGE ON AREA RIVERS AND THE LAKE...SOIL
MOISTURE...AND WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

...OVERVIEW...
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH HAVE 
MODERATED TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LAST WEEK TO TEN 
DAYS. THE SNOWPACK HAS BEEN ELIMINATED ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO BUT 
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW REMAINS ACROSS INLAND SECTIONS OF NORTHWEST 
PENNSYLVANIA. ICE HAS DIMINISHED ON MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS IN 
NORTHERN OHIO WITH AGAIN THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA 
WHERE THE THAW HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT SLOWER. THE TREND TOWARD BELOW 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO EARLY APRIL THEREFORE ANY 
REMAINING ICE SHOULD BE SLOW TO MELT WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A NORMAL 
FLOOD RISK OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

...PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...
THE SHORT TERM FORECASTS INDICATE A BRIEF WARM-UP INTO THE FIRST 
HALF OF THE WEEKEND WHICH COULD ELIMINATE THE REMAINING SNOWPACK 
ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. THE LONG TERM OUTLOOK FOR THE 
REMAINDER OF THE MONTH EXPECTS TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL 
WITH PRECIPITATION NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

...SNOW COVER...
AT THE TIME OF THIS ISSUANCE THE SNOWPACK WAS REDUCED TO SEVERAL 
INCHES ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND GENERALLY 
NO SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. THE WATER EQUIVALENT OF ANY REMAINING 
SNOW IS UP TO AN INCH MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF ERIE AND 
CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

...ICE COVERAGE...
MOST AREA RIVERS HAVE LIMITED ICE COVERAGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. IN ADDITION ICE ON LAKE ERIE HAS DECREASED 
ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN ALLOWING ANY REMAINING ICE FROM THOSE 
TRIBUTARIES TO FLOW INTO THE LAKE. A FEW RIVER GAGES ARE STILL BEING 
AFFECTED BY ICE CONDITIONS AND ARE REPORTING INACCURATE STAGE 
READINGS. RIVER OBSERVERS SHOULD REPORT SIGNIFICANT ICE JAMS TO THE 
LOCAL AUTHORITIES WHO WILL INFORM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

...CURRENT RIVER AND RESERVOIR LEVELS...
ALL RIVERS AND CREEKS ACROSS THE REGION ARE RUNNING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY 
ABOVE NORMAL STREAM FLOWS. THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL RESERVOIRS ARE 
RUNNING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE IDEAL WINTER POOL LEVELS. THE 
AMOUNT OF REMAINING FLOOD STORAGE REMAINS MODERATE WITH MOST 
RESERVOIRS REPORTING 25% OR LESS OF USAGE AT THE TIME OF THIS 
ISSUANCE BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS OF FLOOD STORAGE USED WERE OBSERVED 
ACROSS A FEW EASTERN BASINS.

...SOIL MOISTURE...
TOP SOILS REMAIN PARTIALLY FROZEN. THE SPRINGSBORO PENNSYLVANIA SOIL 
TEMPERATURE READING SHOWS THE FROST DEPTH TO SIX INCHES. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR RAPID RUNOFF AND FLOODING HAS DECREASED BUT WILL 
REMAIN A THREAT IN ANY FUTURE RAIN OR SNOW MELT EVENTS.

...LONG TERM OUTLOOKS...
THE LONG-RANGE RIVER OUTLOOKS AND THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING FLOOD 
STAGE OR THE CHANCES OF FLOODING RELATIVE TO NORMAL AT SPECIFIC 
FORECAST POINTS DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS IS NEAR NORMAL. THE ENSO 
OUTLOOK IS PREDICTING A 50-60% CHANCE OF EL NINO CONDITIONS 
CONTINUING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS BUT WITH A DECREASING 
CHANCE INTO SPRING AND SUMMER. THE LONG TERM TEMPERATURE AND 
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS SHOW NEUTRAL CONDITIONS THROUGH SPRING.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
THE DECREASED SNOWPACK AND RIVER ICE SUGGESTS A NEAR NORMAL RISK FOR 
FLOODING. THE FLOOD CHANCES FOR THE REST OF MARCH WILL ONLY BE 
HEIGHTENED IF ANY REMAINING SNOWPACK AND ICE MELTS RAPIDLY. HOWEVER 
BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY AND EXPECTED NORMAL PRECIPITATION THIS SPRING 
THE OUTLOOK FOR FLOODING THE REST OF THE SPRING IS NEAR NORMAL. 
CLIMATOLOGY FAVORS MARCH AND APRIL AS THE MOST FREQUENT PERIOD FOR 
FLOODS.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON APRIL 2ND.

$$
BM