Texas Drought Monitor

Weather for Chalk, Texas

Texas Hydrologic Information Statement

Lat: 33.88N, Lon: 100.23W
Wx Zone: TXZ032 CWA Used: LUB

The Texas Drought monitor is a subset of the United States Monitor, issued every Thursday morning, based on drought conditions the previous Tuesday. The map below shows the current drought level around the state, and the percent of Texas land area in each drought level compared to the previous week.

Read an explanation of the drought intensities and what they mean.

Important Note: Never make important decisions based on this information or any weather information
obtained from the Internet. Find out why.

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Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.

000
FGUS74 KLUB 161746
ESFLUB
TXC075-169-433-170546-
HYDROLOGIC STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1246 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

..ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) 
LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE BRAZOS 
RIVER BASIN IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN LUBBOCK TEXAS HAS  
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) FOR  
THE BRAZOS RIVER BASIN IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC 
OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.
  
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS.  EXAMPLE:  THE DOUBLE MOUNTAIN FORK OF THE BRAZOS 
RIVER NEAR ASPERMONT 10S HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 21.0 FEET.  THERE IS 
A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE ASPERMONT FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 
12.0 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
  
        CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
            VALID 05/16/2013 - 08/15/2013
  
LOCATION     FS(FT)  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
--------     ------  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
SALT FORK OF THE BRAZOS RIVER
 ASPERMONT 13N 12.0  2.8  2.8  2.8  2.8  3.8  4.6  5.1  6.2  7.8
DOUBLE MOUNTAIN FORK BRAZOS RIVER
 JUSTICEBURG   19.0  5.2  5.2  5.2  5.2  5.2  5.2  6.3  7.4  8.2
 ASPERMONT 10S 21.0  5.5  6.0  6.5 10.6 12.0 15.0 18.2 20.7 24.7
    

LAKE ALAN HENRY
    90%    80%     70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
    ---    ---     ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
   2207.7 2207.7 2207.7 2207.7 2207.7 2207.7 2207.8 2208.7 2210.3
        
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL 
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE 
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE 
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED.
  
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT:  HTTP://AHPS.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LUB  
(INTERNET ADDRESS IS ALL LOWER CASE).
  
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.
    
$$

DOUBLE MOUNTAIN FORK BRAZOS
   2207.7 2207.7 2207.7 2207.7 2207.7 2207.7 2207.8 2208.7 2210.3
   2207.7 2207.7 2207.7 2207.7 2207.7 2207.7 2207.8 2208.7 2210.3

SALT FORK BRAZOS
   2207.7 2207.7 2207.7 2207.7 2207.7 2207.7 2207.8 2208.7 2210.3

PRAIRIE DOG TOWN FORK RED RIVER
   2207.7 2207.7 2207.7 2207.7 2207.7 2207.7 2207.8 2208.7 2210.3