Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS75 KBOU 242110
ESFBOU
COC001-031-035-059-069-123-050000-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
310 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2008
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED NEAR THE END OF THE EACH MONTH. THESE
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED IN ADDITION TO THE 5 DAY RIVER FORECASTS
THAT ARE ISSUED WHEN RIVER FORECAST LOCATIONS ARE IN FLOOD OR
FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THAT A LOCATION ON A STREAM COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE
LEVELS IN THE NEXT 3 MONTHS. FOR EXAMPLE: THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AT
DENVER HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 11 FEET. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT THE STREAM WILL RISE ABOVE 4.0 FEET IN THE NEXT 3 MONTHS.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES IN FEET AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID OCTOBER 27 2008 - JANUARY 25 2009
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
----------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
SOUTH PLATTE RIVER
DENVER 11 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.7 4.0 4.1
HENDERSON 10 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.8
KERSEY 10 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.9
SOUTH PLATTE 7 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6
PLUM CREEK
SEDALIA 8 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.5
BEAR CREEK
MORRISON 9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.3
SHERIDAN 8 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9
CLEAR CREEK
GOLDEN 10 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7
DERBY 9 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8
CACHE LA POUDRE RIVER
FORT COLLINS 9NW 7.5 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3
FORT COLLINS 12 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.3
GREELEY 9 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.8 3.0
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS
ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE.
VISIT OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/BOU FOR MORE WEATHER AND RIVER
INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS.
$$
