Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGCA72 TJSJ 051835
ESFSJU
PRC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-
031-035-037-039-041-043-045-047-049-051-053>055-057-059-061-063-
065-067-069-071-073-075-077-079-081-083-085-087-089-091-093-095-
097-099-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-127-
129-131-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-147-149-151-153-VIC010-020-
030-060645-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
235 PM AST FRI MAR 5 2010
...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
FOR THE SPRING OF 2010...THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL
FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
ISLAND OF SAINT CROIX WHERE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NORMAL.
MONTHLY RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE YEAR TO DATE ACROSS THE REGION
ARE ABOVE NORMAL FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO...BETWEEN 101 AND 199
PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE HIGHEST VALUES WERE ALONG THE EXTREME NORTH
COAST OF PUERTO RICO, WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS ARE IN THE 188 TO 199
PERCENT OF NORMAL. WHILE THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HAVE SEEN LESS
RAINFALL RELATIVE TO PUERTO RICO,THEIR NUMBERS REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL...AROUND 91 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
WITH THE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...NONE OF OUR REGIONS CURRENTLY HAVE ANY
DROUGHT DESIGNATIONS IN THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR.
BASED ON USGS NETWORK GAGES AT THE LOCAL RESERVOIRS AND LAKES...
A SAMPLE OF A FEW OF THE MAJOR RESERVOIRS ACROSS PUERTO RICO SHOW
THAT GENERALLY...LEVELS ARE WITHIN 2 TO 15 FEET OF NORMAL
OPERATIONAL LEVELS. LAGO PATILLAS IS CURRENTLY AT 220.50 FEET...
NORMAL OPERATIONAL LEVEL IS 222 FEET. LAGO LOIZA IS CURRENTLY
133.49 FEET...NORMAL OPERATIONAL LEVEL IS 132.00 FEET AND LAGO LA
PLATA IS CURRENTLY 169.01 FEET...NORMAL OPERATIONAL LEVEL IS 155
FEET. OVERALL...A GOOD PERCENTAGE OF THE LAKES ARE ABOVE THEIR
OPERATIONAL LEVELS, WHICH IS NOT GENERALLY THE CASE AT THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR...SINCE THIS IS THE DRY SEASON.
BEING THAT THIS IS THE DRY SEASON FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...DRY SOILS IN FEBRUARY AND MARCH ARE TO BE EXPECTED, AND
GIVEN A NORMAL SPRING TRANSITIONAL PERIOD, THE SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS USUALLY REBOUND QUICKLY WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN
RAINFALL. CURRENTLY,THE SOILS ARE NOT OVERLY DRY THROUGHOUT MOST
OF THE AREA WHICH IS BENEFICIAL IN THE CASE OF FIRE WEATHER,
AGRICULTURE AND GROUND WATER SUPPLIES.
STREAMFLOW MEASURED BY THE USGS GAGING NETWORK SHOWS MOST LOCATIONS
RUNNING AT FLOWS IN 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE. THIS CATEGORIZATION MAY
BE MISLEADING SINCE THE BASINS ARE RELATIVELY SMALL AND TROPICAL
RAINS ARE SO LADEN...THAT ANY CREDIBLE "RAIN MAKER" CAN HAVE AN
IMMEDIATE IMPACT TO THESE VALUES.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE
INCREASE DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL. WHILE THE EXTENT AND INTENSITY
OF THIS RAINFALL WILL BEST DETERMINE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
ISLANDS...THE CURRENT ANTECEDENT FACTORS POINT TO AN ABOVE NORMAL FLOOD
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
AS A RESULT OF THESE FACTORS...THE CURRENT FLOOD POTENTIAL IS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF PUERTO
RICO AND THE ISLAND OF SAINT CROIX WHERE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS
NORMAL.
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
THIS HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.
$$
