Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS74 KBRO 021553
ESFBRO
TXC047-061-215-247-261-427-489-505-022300-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1100 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008
...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...
...STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONT BRINGS WELCOME RAINS TO DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS...
...EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER ZAPATA, JIM HOGG,
NORTHERN STARR AND WESTERN BROOKS COUNTIES...
SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONT TREKKING THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
ENCOUNTERED A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS, RESULTING IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE 27TH OF APRIL. THIS WAS THE FIRST
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THE REGION HAS RECEIVED SINCE JANUARY. RAINFALL
TOTALS AVERAGED A QUARTER TO HALF AN IN INCH OVER ZAPATA, JIM HOGG
AND STARR COUNTIES. THE EASTERN COUNTIES RECEIVED 1 TO 2 INCH
TOTALS. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WERE OVER SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS OF
CAMERON COUNTY, WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. THE WELCOME
RAINS PROVIDED ONLY SHORT TERM RELIEF TO THE SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT CONDITIONS. EXCLUDING THIS RAIN EVENT, EXTREMELY DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILED DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL. ACCORDING TO THE
NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER (NCDC) EXCEPTIONALLY DRY CONDITIONS
HAVE PERSISTED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE PERIOD OF OCTOBER
2007 TO MARCH 2008. ACCORDING TO THE UNITED STATES DROUGHT MONITOR,
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS (D4) ARE OCCURRING OVER ZAPATA, JIM
HOGG, WESTERN BROOKS AND NORTHERN STARR COUNTIES. EXTREME DROUGHT
CONDITIONS (D3) PERSIST OVER HIDALGO, EASTERN BROOKS AND SOUTHERN
STARR COUNTIES. SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS (D2) ARE INDICATED OVER
THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF KENEDY, WILLACY AND CAMERON. THE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY AFFECTING AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS, INCLUDING
PASTURES AND GRASSLANDS.
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS...
FALCON AND AMISTAD RESERVOIRS PROVIDE MUCH OF THE WATER FOR THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. CURRENTLY, STORAGE AT AMISTAD IS AT 74
PERCENT OF NORMAL CONSERVATION. STORAGE AT FALCON IS CURRENTLY AT 41
PERCENT OF NORMAL CONSERVATION. WATER STORAGE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE AT BOTH RESERVOIRS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASE
DEMANDS FROM MUNICIPALITIES AND AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS.
FIRE DANGER....
WILDFIRE DANGER CONTINUES TO BE OF GREAT CONCERN FOR DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. ACCORDING TO THE STATE OF TEXAS FOREST SERVICE, THE
COMBINATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ABUNDANT DRY FUELS, LOW
HUMIDITIES AND MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS WILL ALLOW THE FIRE DANGER
TO REMAIN MODERATE TO HIGH OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. RECENT RAINS
PROVIDED LITTLE RELIEF TO THE FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS. THE LATEST
KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES (KBDI) ARE CURRENTLY 700 AND ABOVE OVER
ZAPATA COUNTY, 600 TO 700 KBDI OVER STARR, JIM HOGG, BROOKS, HIDALGO
AND KENEDY COUNTIES. KEETCH-BYRAM INDICES ARE 500 TO 600 OVER
WILLACY AND CAMERON COUNTIES. BURN BANS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE ALL COUNTIES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KENEDY
COUNTY. RESIDENTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ARE STRONGLY URGED TO USE
EXTREME CAUTION WHEN DISPOSING OF SMOKING MATERIALS, AND REFRAIN
FROM ALL OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES.
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER, SOIL MOISTURE OVER MUCH
OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IS ABNORMALLY TO EXCESSIVELY DRY. ACCORDING TO
THE UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURAL, THE UNIVERSITY OF
TEXAS A&M, TEXAS AGRILIFE EXTENSION SERVICE AGENTS...SHORT TO VERY
SHORT MOISTURE CONDITIONS CONTINUED TO BE THE RULE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AREA. RECENT RAINS PROVIDED SHORT TERM RELIEF. DRYLAND CROPS
COULD EXPERIENCE A HEAVY LOSS DUE TO THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. CABBAGE
AND ONION HARVEST CONTINUES. COTTON, CORN, SORGHUM, SPRING
VEGETABLES, CANTALOUPES, AND WATERMELONS WERE MAKING GOOD PROGRESS
UNDER IRRIGATION. PRODUCERS ARE STILL PROVIDING SUPPLEMENTAL FEED TO
CATTLE BECAUSE OF LACK OF SPRING FORAGE. RECENT DAILY EVAPORATION
RATES HAVE BEEN AVERAGING A QUARTER TO NEAR HALF AN INCH.
RESTRICTIONS...
ACCORDING TO THE STATE OF TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY
(TCEQ), THERE ARE CURRENTLY 3 PUBLIC WATER SYSTEMS IN HIDALGO COUNTY
WHICH ARE UNDER MILD RATIONING.
OUTLOOK...(MAY 2ND - MAY 15TH)...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND.
THIS WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH MAY 7TH. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN MAY 7TH
ALLOWING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS MAY 8TH. THIS MAY PROVIDE SOME ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS MAY 8TH. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MAY 9TH AND
10TH BEFORE WEAKENING ON THE 11TH. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM MAY 9TH THROUGH MAY 11TH BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES SOUTHEAST ON THE 12TH BRINGING A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THIS FRONT MAY PROVIDE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS MAY
12TH. ANY RAINFALL THAT DOES OCCUR OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH MAY
15TH WILL PROVIDE ONLY SHORT TERM RELIEF FROM THE CURRENT DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. THE OVERALL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. AVERAGE HIGHS FOR DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS FOR EARLY TO MID MAY GENERALLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S WHILE AVERAGE LOWS FOR THE SAME PERIOD RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
THE LONG RANGE CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR MAY THROUGH JULY OF
2008...DERIVED FROM GUIDANCE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...INDICATES THAT WEAK TO MODERATE LA
NINA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE SPRING
INTO THE EARLY SUMMER OF 2008. AS A RESULT OF THE CONTINUING LA NINA
CONDITIONS...BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE EXPECTED ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH JULY OF 2008. SOME GUIDANCE FROM THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES THE POTENTIAL OF THE LA NINA
CONDITIONS WEAKENING FOR THE REST OF THE SUMMER MONTHS OF 2008. THIS
MAY ALLOW MORE NORMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION AFTER JULY
2008. THE U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK AND OTHER GUIDANCE FROM THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES THAT DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OR INTENSIFY THROUGH JULY
OF 2008.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...AND THE LATEST WEATHER FORECAST FOR
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO. YOU
MAY ALSO VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER WEBSITE AT WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV AND GET THE LATEST INFORMATION ON
RESERVOIR LEVELS FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER
COMMISSION AT WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV.
$$
VEGA/CASTILLO
