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Weather for Bismarck, North Dakota

Lat: 46.81N, Lon: 100.78W
Wx Zone: NDZ035 CWA Used: BIS

North Dakota Drought Monitor

The North Dakota Drought monitor is a subset of the United States Monitor, issued every Thursday morning, based on drought conditions the previous Tuesday. The map below shows the current drought level around the state, and the percent of North Dakota land area in each drought level compared to the previous week.

Read an explanation of the drought intensities and what they mean.

North Dakota Drought Monitor

North Dakota Hydrologic Information Statement

Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.

000
FGUS73 KBIS 281652
ESFBIS
NDC009-013-023-049-061-069-075-079-101-301800-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1048 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

...FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...

THIS PROBABILISTIC FLOOD OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOURIS (MOUSE) RIVER
BASIN OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...COVERING THE TIME PERIOD 
OF MID MARCH THROUGH LATE MID JUNE.

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE HAS FOUR SECTIONS...THE FIRST PROVIDES SOME
TEXT ON HIGHLIGHTS OF THIS PRODUCT AND CONDITIONS AFFECTING LOCAL
HYDROLOGY. THE SECOND GIVES THE CURRENT AND NORMAL/HISTORICAL
CHANCES OF RIVER LOCATIONS REACHING THEIR MINOR...MODERATE AND
MAJOR FLOOD CATEGORY...THE THIRD GIVES THE CURRENT CHANCES OF
RIVER LOCATIONS RISING ABOVE RIVER STAGES LISTED...AND THE FINAL
SECTION COVERS THE RISK OF RIVERS FALLING BELOW LISTED STAGES.

...FLOOD OUTLOOK OVERVIEW HIGHLIGHTS...
FIRST AND FOREMOST...THE BELOW PROBABILITY TABLES ARE THE SAME 
NUMBERS ISSUED EARLIER IN MARCH. NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY AS THE 
NUMBERS WERE ORIGINALLY INTENDED TO LARGELY REFLECT THE RISK OF 
SPRING MELT FLOOD RISK AND AT THIS POINT THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN IS 
STILL IN ITS SPRING MELT SEASON...ALBEIT IT MAY APPEAR IN SUSPENDED 
ANIMATION. 

...SNOWMELT PROGRESSION AND RELATIVE RISKS GOING FORWARD...
AT THIS POINT...MOST OF THE WINTER SNOWPACK FOR THE NORTH DAKOTA 
PORTION OF THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN HAS MELTED OFF OR EVAPORATED WITH 
THE DRY AIR OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THUS FAR THE SPRING MELT HAS 
TAKEN PLACE OVER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME AND WITH LITTLE EXTRA 
PRECIPITATION. ACCORDINGLY...RIVER LEVELS AND FLOW HAVE BEEN ON THE 
LOWER END OF EXPECTATIONS. THIS TREND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS GREATER 
THAN NORMAL FROST DEPTH DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE HAMPERING INFILTRATION 
NEARLY AS MUCH AS WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF THE SOILS HAD BEEN WETTER GOING 
INTO WINTER. ONLY MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE STILL IN THE SASKATCHEWAN 
PORTION OF THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN AND EVEN THERE MUCH OF THE MELTWATER 
IS NOT MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE STREAMS AND RIVERS. BARRING ANY 
SIGNIFICANT RAINS OVER THE COMING COUPLE OF WEEKS...THERE DOES NOT 
APPEAR TO BE MUCH RISK OF YET ANOTHER EXTENDED FLOOD SEASON ALONG THE 
SOURIS.

THE GREATEST THREAT TO THE SOURIS AT THIS POINT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 
STRONG RAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. ONCE THE REGION WARMS AND THE 
SOILS ARE THAWED...THE RISK OF FLOODING WILL DROP TO SEASONALLY 
NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOURIS RIVER BASIN. UNTIL 
THEN...ONLY THE REGION WHICH DRAINS INTO WILLOW CREEK AND OTHER 
SMALL TRIBUTARIES IN BOTTINEAU COUNTY IS LIKELY STILL AT SOMEWHAT OF 
AN ELEVATED RISK OF FLOODING. 

...CURRENT CONDITIONS...
MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE SOURIS IN THE TOWNER AREA HAS THUS FAR BEEN 
THE HIGHLIGHT OF AN OTHERWISE UNSPECTACULAR FLOOD SEASON. MUCH OF 
THE SOURIS RIVER IS NOW EITHER ICE FREE...OR HAS ONLY A VERY THIN 
SHEET OF ICE DUE TO RECENT COLD WEATHER. FLOW IN THE SOURIS IS 
RELATIVELY MODEST AT THIS POINT WITH ELEVATED STAGES AT LEAST 
PARTIALLY DUE TO ICE RESTRICTED FLOW IN THE RIVER. SAME IS LIKELY 
TRUE FOR MOST OF THE SMALLER TRIBUTARIES AS WELL. 

...WEATHER OUTLOOK...
THE NEAR TERM 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS SUGGEST A GREATER 
THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE 
NORMAL PRECIPITATION. INDEED...THE WEATHER FORECAST MODELS ALL 
SUGGEST SOME VARYING AMOUNTS OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSOURI AND 
JAMES RIVER BASINS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MARCH. LOOKING FARTHER 
OUT AT THE ONE AND THREE MONTH OUTLOOKS...A GREATER THAN NORMAL 
PROBABILITY EXISTS FOR COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH AN 
EQUAL CHANCE FOR BELOW NORMAL...NORMAL...OR ABOVE NORMAL 
PRECIPITATION.

...LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOK BY FLOOD CATEGORY...

                           SOURIS RIVER BASIN
                    LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
              VALID FROM MARCH 10, 2014  TO JUNE 8, 2014

THE TABLE BELOW GIVES BOTH THE CURRENT CHANCES (CS) AND THE
NORMAL/HISTORICAL CHANCES (HS) FOR EXCEEDING THE MINOR...MODERATE
AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES AT THE RIVER FORECAST POINT LOCATIONS DURING
THE VALID PERIOD OF THIS OUTLOOK.

        PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING                   
   

TABLE 1                                  : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                         : CHANCES OF EXCEEDING FLOOD
                                         : CATEGORY IN PERCENT (%)
                         CATEGORICAL     :
                      FLOOD STAGES (FT)  :  MINOR   MODERATE  MAJOR
LOCATION            MINOR    MOD   MAJOR :  CS HS    CS HS    CS HS
--------            ------ ------ ------ : --- ---  --- ---  --- ---
DES LACS RIVER.....
  FOXHOLM             16.0   18.0   19.0 :  95  66   93  46   13  10
  BANTRY              11.0   12.0   14.0 : >95  64  >95  49   12   9
WILLOW CREEK.....
  WILLOW CITY         10.0   14.0   16.0 : >95  38   84  16   15  95  52   70  2
4   49  18

LEGEND:
    CS  =  CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (OUTLOOK FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS)
    HS  =  HISTORICAL SIMULATION  (HISTORICAL RISK FOR THIS SEASON)
    FT  =  FEET ABOVE GAGE ZERO DATUM

...LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK BY RIVER STAGE...

                          SOURIS RIVER BASIN
                    LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK

THE TABLE BELOW GIVES THE CURRENT 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
EXCEEDING RIVER STAGES AT THE RIVER FORECAST POINT LOCATIONS DURING
THE VALID PERIOD OF THIS OUTLOOK.

EXAMPLE: DURING THE VALID TIME OF THIS OUTLOOK...THERE IS A
         95 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THE SOURIS RIVER AT SHERWOOD TO
         RISE ABOVE 7.9 FEET AND ONLY A 5 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
         IT WILL RISE ABOVE 15.6 FEET.

           PROBABILITIES FOR EXCEEDING LISTED RIVER STAGES
                     FROM  3/10/2014 TO 6/8/2014
TABLE 2

LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------             -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
DES LACS RIVER.....
  FOXHOLM              7.2    7.3    7.6    8.5    9.8   12.1   15.7
SOURIS RIVER.....
  SHERWOOD             7.9    8.8    9.5   11.2   14.2   15.0   15.6
  SOURIS NR FOXHOLM    7.7    8.2    8.6   10.6   13.8   14.0   14.2
  MINOT 4NW            7.3    8.0    8.7   10.5   12.9   15.0   18.0
  MINOT             1542.1 1542.3 1542.8 1543.7 1544.9 1546.1 1549.3
  LOGAN               27.8   28.7   30.0   32.9   34.7   35.5   36.7
  SAWYER              13.2   14.0   15.5   18.6   20.7   22.2   23.8
  VELVA             1498.6 1499.6 1501.5 1504.3 1505.3 1507.0 1508.4
WINTERING RIVER.....
  KARLSRUHE            6.7    6.8    7.1    7.6    8.0    8.2    8.3
SOURIS RIVER.....
  TOWNER              53.9   54.2   54.6   55.4   55.8   56.2   57.2
  BANTRY              12.1   12.4   12.6   13.2   13.6   14.1   14.7
WILLOW CREEK.....
  WILLOW CITY         13.3   13.8   14.2   14.8   15.5   16.3   16.7
SOURIS RIVER.....
  WESTHOPE            12.5   12.9   13.5   16.0   17.3   19.0   20.8

...LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK BY RIVER STAGE...

                          SOURIS RIVER BASIN
                    LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK

THE TABLE BELOW GIVES THE CURRENT 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
THE RIVERS TO FALL BELOW THE LISTED RIVER STAGES AT THE RIVER
FORECAST
POINT LOCATIONS DURING THE VALID PERIOD OF THIS OUTLOOK.

EXAMPLE: DURING THE VALID TIME OF THIS OUTLOOK...THERE IS A
         95 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THE SOURIS RIVER AT SHERWOOD TO
         REMAIN ABOVE 1.7 FEET AND ONLY A 5 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
         IT WILL FALL BELOW 0.7 FEET.

         PROBABILITIES FOR FALLING BELOW LISTED RIVER STAGES
                         3/10/2014 - 6/8/2014

TABLE 3

LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%    05%
--------             -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
DES LACS RIVER.....
  FOXHOLM              4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6    4.5    4.5    4.5
SOURIS RIVER.....
  SHERWOOD             1.7    1.6    1.6    1.5    1.1    0.9    0.7
  SOURIS NR FOXHOLM    5.0    4.9    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5
  MINOT 4NW            4.3    4.2    4.2    4.1    4.0    4.0    4.0
  MINOT             1538.1 1538.0 1537.6 1537.4 1536.9 1536.6 1536.6
  LOGAN               20.9   20.8   20.6   20.1   19.5   19.3   19.2
  SAWYER               6.8    6.7    6.5    6.2    5.8    5.6    5.5
  VELVA             1490.5 1490.5 1490.2 1489.7 1489.2 1489.0 1489.0
WINTERING RIVER.....
  KARLSRUHE            2.1    2.1    2.0    2.0    2.0    1.9    1.9
SOURIS RIVER.....
  TOWNER              44.4   44.4   44.4   44.4   44.3   44.1   44.1
  BANTRY               2.4    2.4    2.4    2.4    2.3    2.2    2.2
WILLOW CREEK.....
  WILLOW CITY          4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6    4.6
SOURIS RIVER.....
  WESTHOPE             5.9    5.9    5.9    5.9    5.9    5.9    5.9

...THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS...

THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A SERIES OF PEAK
RIVER LEVELS OR CRESTS TAKEN FROM THE FORECAST HYDROGRAPH RESULTS
OF THE NWS ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION MODEL (ESP). THE MODEL
IS RUN FOR MULTIPLE SCENARIOS STARTING AT CURRENT RIVER...SNOW AND
SOIL CONDITIONS AND USING NEARLY 50 YEARS OF PAST PRECIPITATION AND
TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD. THESE CRESTS CAN
THEN
BE RANKED FROM LOWEST TO HIGHEST...AND THEN BE ASSIGNED AN
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY. FOR EXAMPLE...FOR A SERIES OF 50 YEARS...
THE LOWEST RANKED CREST HAS 49 CRESTS ABOVE IT AND SINCE 95 PERCENT
OF THE CRESTS ARE ABOVE IT... IT IS ASSIGNED A 95 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE (POE).

THE PROBABILITIES CAN BE USED FOR RISK MANAGEMENT BY COMPARING THIS
YEARS CURRENT TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS WITH
THOSE OF PAST YEARS USED IN THE HYDRO OUTLOOK. THEY CAN ALSO BE
USED AS AN INDICATION OF THE RANGE OF CRESTS THAT MAY BE EXPECTED
DURING THE VALID PERIOD OF THE OUTLOOK.

BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF PEAK RIVER LEVEL PROBABILITIES..THE NWS IS
IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE AREAS DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES THAT HELP
WITH LONG RANGE FLOOD PLANNING AND RESPONSE READINESS.  THIS OUTLOOK
IS A PART OF NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE/S AHPS (ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES).

THIS OUTLOOK WAS PRODUCED USING PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES
FOR THE YEARS 1948 THROUGH 2011.

...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES...

THE AHPS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED
NEAR THE END OF EACH MONTH. HOWEVER...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER
RESOURCES OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED SEVERAL TIMES DURING THE CRITICAL
SPRING MELT PERIOD...USUALLY ON THURSDAYS BEGINNING IN LATE
FEBRUARY OR EARLY MARCH AND ENDING IN EARLY APRIL...DEPENDING
ON THE SPRING FLOODING CONDITIONS.

THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS GRAPHS OF THE PROBABILITY OF STAGE
EXCEEDANCE FOR THE FULL PERIOD AND FOR WEEKLY INTERVALS DURING THE
PERIOD. THESE GRAPHS...TOGETHER WITH EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP IN
INTERPRETING THEM ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NWS BISMARCK AHPS WEB
PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT:

        WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BISMARCK OR WEATHER.GOV/BIS

 THEN CLICK ON THE "RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS" ON THE TAB ABOVE THE
MAP...OR ON THE LINK IN THE BLUE-LEFT-HAND BANNER.

CURRENT RIVER CONDITIONS FOR ALL FORECAST POINTS WITHIN THE SOURIS
RIVER BASIN ARE AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE...AS WELL AS THE FORECASTS
WHEN THE RIVER AT THE FORECAST POINT IS IN OR NEAR FLOOD.

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS...CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-250-4495.

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED MONTHLY THROUGHOUT
THE REST OF THE YEAR DURING THE LATER PART OF THE MONTH OR AS
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$
AJS