Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS73 KBIS 261543
ESFBIS
NDC009-013-023-049-061-069-075-079-101-271800-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1040 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2008
...SOURIS RIVER BASIN OUTLOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL...
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN
DRAINAGE SYSTEM IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA VALID THROUGH THE
LAST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER 2008.
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS) ENABLE THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER
OUTLOOKS...
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
VALID JUNE 30, 2008 - SEPTEMBER 28, 2008
THE LATEST CLIMATE OUTLOOKS FOR NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE MONTH OF JULY
(30-DAY) SHOW NO DEVIATION FROM NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURE OR
PRECIPITATION. THE OUTLOOKS FOR JULY THROUGH SEPTEMBER (90-DAY) SHOW
NO DEVIATION FROM NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES OR PRECIPITATION. THESE
OUTLOOKS CAN BE VIEWED ON THE INTERNET AT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/FORECASTS
BELOW IS TABLE 1 WHICH SHOWS THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING FLOOD
STAGE. FOR MORE DETAILS SUCH AS CHANCES OF EXCEEDING CERTAIN STAGES AT
SPECIFIC LOCATIONS REFER TO TABLE 2.
TABLE 1. CHANCES OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
IN THE BISMARCK HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.
VALID JUNE 30, 2008 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 28, 2008
CHANCE OF
LOCATION FS (FT) EXCEEDING FS
-------- ------- ---------
DES LACS RIVER
FOXHOLM 16 LESS THAN 10%
SOURIS RIVER
SHERWOOD 15W 18 LESS THAN 10%
FOXHOLM 3E 10 LESS THAN 10%
MINOT 4NW 14 LESS THAN 10%
MINOT BWY BRG 1549 LESS THAN 10%
LOGAN 34 LESS THAN 10%
SAWYER 22 LESS THAN 10%
VELVA 1505 LESS THAN 10%
TOWNER 1W 52 LESS THAN 10%
BANTRY 8E 11 LESS THAN 10%
WESTHOPE 7NNE 10 LESS THAN 10%
WINTERING RIVER
KARLSRUHE 5NE 7 LESS THAN 10%
WILLOW CREEK
WILLOW CITY 7W 10 LESS THAN 10%
IN TABLE 2 BELOW, THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS GIVE THE CHANCE THE
RIVER AT THE GIVEN LOCATION WOULD RISE ABOVE THE INDICATED STAGE LEVELS
WITHIN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
EXAMPLE: WILLOW CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 10 FEET. IN
THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE RIVER WILL RISE
ABOVE 4.7 FEET BUT ONLY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IT WILL RISE ABOVE
7.0 FEET.
TABLE 2. CHANCES OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS IN THE
BISMARCK HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.
ALL STAGES ARE IN FEET
VALID 06/30/2008 - 9/28/2008
LOCATION FS (FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
________ ______ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___
DES LACS RIVER
FOXHOLM 16 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.7 6.1 6.6 7.
6
SOURIS RIVER
SHERWOOD 15W 18 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.2 3.
8
FOXHOLM 3E 10 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.
7
MINOT 4NW 14 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.8 5.
2
MINOT BWY BRG 1549 1535.8 1535.8 1535.8 1535.8 1537.2 1538.4 1538.9 1540.3 1541
.0
LOGAN 36 19.9 19.9 19.9 20.0 20.5 20.8 21.8 23.1 23.
8
SAWYER 22 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.5 6.7 7.5 8.5 9.
4
VELVA 1505 1489.8 1489.8 1489.9 1490.1 1490.3 1490.8 1491.0 1491.7 1492
.2
TOWNER 1NW 52 44.0 44.0 44.0 44.3 44.6 44.7 45.1 46.8 48.
9
BANTRY 8E 11 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.6 4.7 6.
9
WESTHOPE 7NNE 10 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.8 7.3 7.6 8.0 8.
3
WINTERING RIVER
KARLSRUHE 5NE 7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.4 3.6 4.
1
WILLOW CREEK
WILLOW CITY 7W 10 4.7 4.7 5.0 5.1 5.5 5.6 6.0 6.3 7.
0
THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS GRAPHS OF STAGE, FLOW, AND VOLUME...AND AS
WEEKLY PROBABILITIES OF THE 90-DAY PERIOD...AS WELL AS EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP
IN INTERPRETATION.
THESE OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NWS BISMARCK AHPS PAGE
ON THE INTERNET AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS/AHPS
TABLE 3 IS A FEATURE THAT PROVIDES PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS FOR "HOW LOW WILL
THE RIVER GET?" THIS NEW FEATURE HAS BEEN IMPLEMENTED ON OUR AHPS WEB PAGES
FOR EACH FORECAST POINT IN THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN THAT HAS PROBABILISTIC
GRAPHICS PRODUCED FOR THEM. PROBABILISTIC LOW FLOW INFORMATION WILL PROVIDE
USEFUL INFORMATION DURING DROUGHTS...AND FOR RIVER USERS INTERESTED IN
FISHERIES...INDUSTRIAL DISCHARGES...DILUTION RATIOS...RECREATION...IRRIGATION
...AND NAVIGATION. IT WILL AID IN RISK ASSESSMENT DURING SITUATIONS WHERE LOW
FLOWS MAY BE CRITICAL TO OPERATIONS.
TABLE 3. CHANCES OF FALLING BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS IN THE
BISMARCK HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.
ALL STAGES ARE IN FEET
VALID 6/30/2008 - 9/28/2008
LOCATION FS (FT) 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
________ _______ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___
DES LACS RIVER
FOXHOLM 16 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.
8
SOURIS RIVER
SHERWOOD 15W 18 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.
5
FOXHOLM 3E 10 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.
7
MINOT 4NW 14 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.
9
MINOT BWY BRG 1549 1532.0 1532.0 1532.0 1532.0 1532.0 1532.0 1532.0 1532.1 1532
.8
LOGAN 36 18.7 18.7 18.7 18.8 18.8 18.8 18.8 18.9 19.
0
SAWYER 22 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.
5
VELVA 1505 1489.0 1489.0 1489.0 1489.0 1489.0 1489.0 1489.0 1489.0 1489
.0
TOWNER 1NW 52 43.2 43.2 43.2 43.2 43.2 43.2 43.2 43.2 43.
2
BANTRY 8E 11 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.
5
WESTHOPE 7NNE 10 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.
6
WINTERING RIVER
KARLSRUHE 5NE 7 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.
1
WILLOW CREEK
WILLOW CITY 7W 10 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.
5
THE NUMBERS CONTAINED IN THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS REPRESENT
NATURAL FLOWS. THAT IS, FLOWS UNAFFECTED BY MAN-MADE STRUCTURES IN THE BASIN
SUCH AS DIVERSION DAMS AND RESERVOIRS.
"THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...SNOW COVER
...SOIL MOISTURE ...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOK OF TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL
OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE".
CURRENT RIVER CONDITIONS FOR 16 RIVER FORECAST POINTS IN THE MISSOURI AND
JAMES RIVER BASINS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE. 5-DAY FORECASTS
WHEN THE RIVER AT A FORECAST POINT IS NEAR FLOOD ARE ALSO AVAILABLE FOR
ALL BASINS.
THE NEXT AHPS FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED THE LATTER PART OF JULY 2008.
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS, CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-250-4495.
VISIT OUR HOME PAGE AT: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS FOR MORE WEATHER AND
FLOOD INFORMATION.
$$
PRINDIVILLE
