Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS74 KBMX 151525 RRA
ESFBMX
ALC001-005>011-015>021-027-029-037-047-051-055-057-
063-065-073-075-081-085>093-101-105>127-211200-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1025 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2008
...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...
SYNOPSIS...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE PAST WEEK WERE GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHILE THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA RECEIVED ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THERE
HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM DROUGHT SITUATION ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATES SEVERE
TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR
HALEYVILLE TO GORDO TO UNIONTOWN TO LOWNDESBORO TO AUBURN. REMAINING
AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST ARE IN ABNORMALLY DRY TO MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE DROUGHT MONITOR CLASSIFIES DROUGHT WITHIN
ONE OF THESE FIVE CATEGORIES:
1) ABNORMALLY DRY
2) MODERATE
3) SEVERE
4) EXTREME
5) EXCEPTIONAL
RAINFALL AVERAGED ONE TO THREE INCHES NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR
VERNON TO LAFAYETTE DURING THE PAST WEEK. AREAS SOUTH OF THIS LINE
GENERALLY RECEIVED LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN. SO FAR IN MAY...
RAINFALL HAS AVERAGED FROM ONE AND A HALF TO FOUR INCHES...ALTHOUGH
AREAS IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AROUND TROY HAVE RECEIVED LESS
THAN AN INCH. FOR THE YEAR... RAINFALL HAS AVERAGED FROM SEVENTEEN
TO TWENTY FIVE INCHES. FOR THE MONTH OF MAY...AVERAGE RAINFALL IS
FROM FOUR AND ONE QUARTER TO FOUR AND THREE QUARTER INCHES.
SOME PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA JANUARY 1ST THROUGH
MAY 14TH:
BIRMINGHAM 22.88
MONTGOMERY 17.11
ANNISTON 18.50
TUSCALOOSA 19.05
CALERA 25.09
TROY 19.50
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL FROM
JANUARY 1ST THROUGH MAY 14TH:
BIRMINGHAM 22.67 UP 0.21
MONTGOMERY 23.16 DOWN 6.05
ANNISTON 23.24 DOWN 4.74
TUSCALOOSA 24.39 DOWN 5.34
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
TOP SOIL MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
MOST AREAS...AND THIS HAS GREATLY AIDED SPRING CROPS BEING PLANTED.
HOWEVER...SUBSOIL CONDITIONS HAVE STILL NOT RECOVERED FROM THE
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT OF LAST FALL AND SUMMER.
SIGNIFICANT SPRINGTIME PLANTING CONTINUES WITH THE USDA REPORTING 97
PERCENT OF THE CORN CROP PLANTED. OVERALL...ALABAMA`S CORN CROP WAS
IN GOOD TO EXCELLENT CONDITION. PASTURE CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY GOOD
TO EXCELLENT...AND REPORTED TO BE IN THE BEST SHAPE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR SINCE 2005. THE WINTER WHEAT CROP ALSO REMAINED IN MOSTLY GOOD
TO EXCELLENT CONDITION. OVERALL...CROP AND LIVESTOCK CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA WERE IN GOOD CONDITION.
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...
GENERALLY SPEAKING...THE RISK FOR FIRE DANGERS IS CURRENTLY LOW
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES (KBDI) ARE
CURRENTLY 100 OR LESS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH VALUES
BETWEEN 100 AND 170 IN WEST CENTRAL COUNTIES. VALUES ABOVE 500
INDICATE A SEVERE FIRE DANGER.
THE ALABAMA FORESTRY COMMISSION REPORTS THAT NO COUNTIES ARE
CURRENTLY UNDER A FIRE ALERT.
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS...
STREAM FLOWS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN FOLLOWING THE
RECENT RAINFALL...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE REPORTING UNITED STATES
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY STREAM GAGES CURRENTLY IN THE NORMAL TO ABOVE
NORMAL RANGE. HOWEVER...WITH THE INCREASE IN THE DEMAND FOR WATER
FROM GROWING VEGETATION...FREQUENT RAINS ARE STILL NEEDED TO HELP
STREAM FLOWS REMAIN IN THE NORMAL RANGE.
RESERVOIR LEVELS ARE REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY. MOST MAJOR RESERVOIRS
HAVE NOW RETURNED TO NEAR NORMAL SUMMER POOL LEVELS. PERIODIC
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL WILL NEED TO CONTINUE IN ORDER FOR THE MAJOR
RESERVOIRS TO SUSTAIN THEIR CURRENT LEVELS THROUGH SUMMER.
LISTED BELOW ARE TODAY`S LEVELS FOR SOME OF THE MAJOR RESERVOIRS
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AND LAST WEEK`S LEVELS:
RESERVOIR LEVEL FOR 05/15/2008 LEVEL FOR 05/09/2008
WEISS 563.7 563.8
NEELY HENRY 507.5 507.8
LOGAN MARTIN 464.6 464.9
LAY 395.6 395.9
MITCHELL 311.5 311.7
JORDAN 251.2 251.2
R.L. HARRIS 792.5 793.0
MARTIN 489.4 489.6
SMITH 509.8 509.9
BANKHEAD 254.7 254.6
HOLT 187.0 186.4
SOCIAL IMPACTS...
SOME OF THE WATER RESTRICTIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA HAVE BEEN
LIFTED OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THE NEAR AVERAGE RAINFALL
CONDITIONS FROM LATE WINTER THROUGH EARLY SPRING HAVE ALLOWED SOME
OF THE MAJOR CITY RESERVOIRS TO FILL TO CAPACITY. HOWEVER...THE
THREAT OF WATER SHORTAGES FOR MUNICIPAL WATER SYSTEMS WILL PERSIST
AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE SUMMER SEASON...ESPECIALLY IF BELOW NORMAL
RAINFALL OCCURS OVER THE AREA. THE AMOUNT OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
THAT OCCURS DURING THE REMAINDER OF SPRING AND INTO THE SUMMER WILL
BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING IF ADEQUATE WATER SUPPLIES ARE AVAILABLE
FOR THE UPCOMING SUMMER IN AREA RESERVOIRS.
OUTLOOK...
A COLD FRONT WAS APRROACHING THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND. SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LIKELY RETURN BY THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK...AND THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT APRROACHING THE
AREA NEXT WEDNESDAY COULD BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ONCE
AGAIN.
THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST...FOR MAY 20TH THROUGH MAY 28TH...CALLS
FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK...FOR JUNE THROUGH AUGUST...CALLS FOR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL.
...UPDATE STATEMENT...
THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND MAY
22ND...OR EARLIER IF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE CURRENT DROUGHT
SITUATION OCCUR.
$$
