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Weather for Athens, Alabama

Lat: 34.79N, Lon: 86.96W
Wx Zone: ALZ005 CWA Used: HUN

Alabama Drought Monitor

The Alabama Drought monitor is a subset of the United States Monitor, issued every Thursday morning, based on drought conditions the previous Tuesday. The map below shows the current drought level around the state, and the percent of Alabama land area in each drought level compared to the previous week.

Read an explanation of the drought intensities and what they mean.

Alabama Drought Monitor

Alabama Hydrologic Information Statement

Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.

000
FGUS74 KHUN 031600
ESFHUN
ALC033-043-049-059-071-077-079-083-089-095-103-TNC051-103-127-050000-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1000 AM CST THU MAR 3 2016

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE 
TENNESSEE...

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE FAVORS ABOVE AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR
SPRING 2016. RAINFALL SO FAR THIS WINTER HAS BEEN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...WITH STREAMFLOWS GENERALLY ELEVATED
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SOIL
MOISTURE CONTENT IS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...ON
THE ORDER OF 60 TO 65% IN SEVERAL BASINS. FAR NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA
IS THE ONLY PORTION OF THE AREA THAT HAS NOT RECEIVED AS MUCH
RAINFALL AS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...THOUGH TOTALS ARE STILL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE ISSUES A SPRING FLOOD
POTENTIAL OUTLOOK EACH SPRING. THIS PRODUCT IS BASED ON ANALYSIS OF
SOIL MOISTURE...RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS...RESERVOIR LEVELS...AND
FUTURE PRECIPITATION PATTERNS. SNOW COVER IN THE BASIN AS A WHOLE IS
FACTORED IN TO THE OUTLOOK...IF IT IS PRESENT. A SECOND SPRING FLOOD
OUTLOOK MAY BE ISSUED LATER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.
  
.CURRENT CONDITIONS...
AFTER A VERY WET END TO 2015 AND MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVING UPWARDS OF
10 OR MORE INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER...2016
STARTED OFF A TAD DRIER. FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY...MANY LOCATIONS
WITHIN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY RECEIVED BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS OBSERVING TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 5
INCHES. THIS LED TO DEFICITS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES FOR MANY
LOCATIONS FOR THE MONTH. FOR FEBRUARY...A VAST MAJORITY OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA RECEIVED IN EXCESS OF 6
INCHES OF RAINFALL. AGAIN...THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WAS LOCATIONS OVER
FAR NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA THAT ONLY RECEIVED BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES
OF RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME. THIS LED TO SURPLUSES IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. IN NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA...DEFICITS AGAIN SURFACED...WITH
SEVERAL LOCATIONS NOTING UPWARDS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE MONTH.

SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...AND THOUGH NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AT THIS MOMENT...A FEW
SITES ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER ARE STILL HOVERING NEAR ACTION STAGE
FROM THE MOST RECENT ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL ALMOST A WEEK AGO.
ACCORDING TO SPORT SOIL MOISTURE VALUES...MANY BASINS ACROSS THE
AREA HAVE AT LEAST 50% SATURATION ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65.
BASINS EAST OF THE INTERSTATE ARE MUCH MORE SATURATED...ON THE ORDER
OF 60 TO 65%. LOCAL RESEARCH HAS SHOWN THAT VALUES SUCH AS THESE
WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL INSTANCES OF RIVER FLOODING IF AROUND 1.5 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL OCCURS...WHICH HAS HAPPENED MANY TIMES SO FAR
THIS SEASON. 

LOOKING AHEAD FOR THE NEXT 3 MONTHS...THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR
MARCH...APRIL...AND MAY FAVORS EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE OR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE  SERVICE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION
OUTLOOK FOR THE SAME  FAVORS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
THE AREA. IF THIS DRIER THAN NORMAL FORECAST PANS OUT...COUNTIES
WITHIN THE SERVICE AREA MAY BE ADDED TO THE DROUGHT OUTLOOK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE SPRING SEASON. 

RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS WERE MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL AT THE END OF
2015 THANKS TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED
FROM THANKSGIVING INTO LATE DECEMBER...WITH THE BIGGEST EVENT
OCCURRING ON AND AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY. WIDESPREAD FLASH AND RIVER
FLOODING OCCURRED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SEVERAL WATER RESCUES
NEEDED IN A FEW LOCATIONS DUE TO RAPIDLY RISING WATERS. IN 2016 SO
FAR...THANKS TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL VALUES...RIVER AND
STREAM LEVELS ARE BEGINNING TO RETURN TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL PEACEFUL CONDITIONS. 

ACROSS ALABAMA AND TENNESSEE...RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS ARE AVERAGING
AROUND 60 TO 80 PERCENT OF NORMAL...WITH A FEW SITES WELL INTO THE
90 PERCENT RANGE. BEAR CREEK AND CEDAR CREEK LAKES ARE OPERATING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THEIR WINTER RECHARGE PHASES. TIMS FORD LAKE IS ALSO
OPERATING ABOVE NORMAL. ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER...GUNTERSVILLE AND
WHEELER LAKES ARE OPERATING WELL ABOVE NORMAL WINTER RECHARGE
PHASES...WHEREAS WILSON LAKE IS OPERATING ON THE LOWER END OF THE
NORMAL WINTER RECHARGE PHASE. AREAS ALONG THE TENNESSEE DO NOT
OFFICIALLY ENTER THEIR RECHARGE PHASES UNTIL LATER IN MARCH AND
APRIL...THOUGH LIKE LAST YEAR...MOST ARE OPERATING AT THE TOP OF
THEIR NORMAL OPERATING ZONE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE IT ALREADY.

THE OUTLOOK FOR RIVER LEVELS...SOIL MOISTURE...AND GROUNDWATER
THROUGH EARLY APRIL IS FOR A GRADUAL DECREASE. THAT SAID...SOME
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF MARCH WHICH MAY LEAD TO MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING
EXPECTED (PER THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS)...SO THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED. DEPENDING ON THE INDIVIDUAL STORM SYSTEMS THAT
OCCUR THROUGH EARLY APRIL...CHANGES WILL BEGIN TO BE NOTED IN RIVER
LEVELS...SOIL MOISTURE...AND GROUNDWATER LEVELS.

RESERVOIR LEVELS IN THIS AREA ARE GENERALLY HELD WITHIN A NORMAL
OPERATING RANGE THROUGHOUT THE YEAR. DURING HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS
LATE LAST YEAR AND EARLY THIS YEAR...THE RESERVOIRS WERE ABOVE THOSE
RANGES. AS A RESULT...WATER HAD TO BE RELEASED ALONG THE TENNESSEE
RIVER TO HANDLE THE ADDITIONAL EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. OVER THE
PAST FEW WEEKS...THE RESERVOIR LEVELS ARE BEGINNING TO FALL TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES...BUT MANY ARE STILL OPERATING ABOVE NORMAL RANGES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.7-DAY FORECAST... 
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS STARTING TO SHIFT INTO A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN...WITH SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA EVERY THREE TO FOUR DAYS.
EARLIER THIS WEEK...THE AREA HAD THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. THANKFULLY...JUST A FEW REPORTS OF
GUSTY WINDS OCCURRED. ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNS TO
THE AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DRY COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE YET
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS WEEKEND.
ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THESE SYSTEMS MAY CAUSE RISES ON
AREA RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS.

.8-14 DAY FORECAST... 
THE EIGHT TO FOURTEEN DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE
AREA FOR THE PERIOD OF MARCH 9TH THROUGH THE 15TH.

.MONTHLY OUTLOOK FOR MARCH... 
THE OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH IS ALSO ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER AND FAVORS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
WITH EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION VALUES
THROUGH APRIL 1ST.

.SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE SPRING... 
THE OUTLOOK FOR THE SPRING SEASON...MARCH THROUGH MAY...ISSUED BY
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FAVORS EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE OR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE AS
FOLLOWS: 

ABOVE NORMAL.....33% 
NEAR NORMAL......33% 
BELOW NORMAL.....33% 

THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR MARCH THROUGH MAY INDICATES SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA...WITH THE AREA ON
THE CUSP OF EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL VALUES AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES EXPECTED. 

.LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER FORECASTS... 
PROBABILITIES OF LONG-TERM FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TRIBUTARIES ARE PROVIDED WEEKLY BY THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FORECAST CENTER IN SLIDELL LOUISIANA. THESE PROBABILITIES SHOULD BE
USED FOR PLANNING PURPOSES AND FACTOR IN HISTORICAL CONDITIONS IN
MULTIPLE SCENARIOS. THEY DO NOT INCLUDE FUTURE RAINFALL.

THESE PROBABILITIES INDICATE AN ABOVE AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR
THE 90-DAY PERIOD ENDING JUNE 3RD 2016...ABOUT 20 PERCENT ON THE
FLINT RIVER NEAR CHASE...ABOUT 25 PERCENT ON THE ELK RIVER ABOVE
FAYETTEVILLE...ABOUT 50 PERCENT ON THE BIG NANCE CREEK NEAR
COURTLAND...AND ALMOST 70 PERCENT ON THE PAINT ROCK RIVER NEAR
WOODVILLE.

THESE FIGURES ARE FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ONLY. DO NOT USE THEM AS A
MEANS OF IGNORING FLOOD THREATS THAT MAY OCCUR WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
IF FLOOD OUTLOOKS...WATCHES...OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED...TAKE
IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE AND PROPERTY!

.WRAPUP... 
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR SPRING 2016 IS ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE WFO HUNTSVILLE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...AND AS LONG AS SOIL
MOISTURE VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...RAINFALL FROM CONVECTIVELY
DRIVEN STORM SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLOODING THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MONTH OF MARCH IF NOT APRIL AS WELL. TRANSITIONING INTO MAY WILL BE
A DRIER TIME OF YEAR...SO FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN AS WE HEAD
LATE INTO SPRING AND EARLY INTO THE SUMMER SEASON.

THIS PRODUCT IS DESIGNED TO GIVE THE PUBLIC AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS AN OUTLOOK ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DURING THE NEXT
FEW MONTHS...THE TRADITIONAL FLOODING SEASON. THIS AND OTHER
HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE UNDER THE RIVERS AND LAKES LINK ON THE
LEFT. IT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE TAB ABOVE THE WATCH/WARNING MAP
DISPLAYED ON THE WEBPAGE AS WELL. 

THERE IS NO SPRING FLOOD AWARENESS WEEK ANYMORE. INSTEAD OF
INDIVIDUAL WEEKS OF AWARENESS...WE'RE TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A
'SEASONAL' AWARENESS. FLOOD SAFETY AND AWARENESS DAY WAS OBSERVED
DURING SPRING SEVERE WEATHER AWARENESS WEEK WHICH OCCURRED IN EARLY
FEBRUARY FOR THE UPCOMING SPRING SEASON.

STREAM AND RAINFALL DATA ARE PROVIDED BY THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AUTHORITY...THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF
ENGINEERS...AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COOPERATIVE AND
BACKYARD WEATHER OBSERVERS. WE THANK THESE PARTNERS FOR THEIR
VALUABLE DATA!

&&

FOR QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS OUTLOOK...PLEASE CONTACT:

CHELLY AMIN
HYDROLOGY PROGRAM MANAGER
256.801.3096

OR

CHRIS DARDEN
METEOROLOGIST IN CHARGE
256.890.8503 EXT. 222

$$

AMIN