California Drought Monitor

000
FGUS76 KSTO 120214
ESFSTO
CAC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-
033-035-041-043-045-047-049-051-053-055-057-059-061-063-065-067-069-
071-073-075-077-081-083-085-087-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-
107-109-111-113-115-130215-

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
613 PM PST THU MAR 11 2010

...BELOW AVERAGE TO AVERAGE SPRING SNOWMELT FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR
CALIFORNIA...

THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE UPPER
KLAMATH LAKE BASIN IN OREGON.  THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS AVERAGE
FOR WEST SIDE SIERRA NEVADA WATERSHEDS FROM THE TUOLUMNE RIVER BASIN
SOUTHWARD TO THE KERN RIVER BASIN. IT IS ALSO AVERAGE FROM A LINE
EXTENDING FROM THE SAN LUIS OBISPO/SANTA BARBARA...KERN/VENTURA...
AND KERN/LOS ANGELES COUNTY LINES... AND THE SOUTH HALF OF SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO THE MEXICAN BORDER. IT IS BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THE REST OF CALIFORNIA.

MANY AREAS OF CALIFORNIA WERE SUBJECTED TO MAJOR WILDFIRES LAST
YEAR.  THERE WAS A WIDE RANGE OF AREAS IMPACTED ...INCLUDING FOR
EXAMPLE MARIPOSA... MONTEREY... SAN BENITO... ALAMEDA... SISKIYOU...
SANTA CLARA... SANTA CRUZ... LASSEN... SHASTA... TUOLUMNE... YUBA...
AND TRINITY COUNTIES AS WELL AS LARGE FIRES IN LOS ANGELES...
SANTA BARBARA... SAN BERNARDINO... VENTURA... RIVERSIDE... AND
SAN DIEGO COUNTIES.  IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR SOIL CONDITIONS AND
VEGETATION COVER TO FULLY RECOVER.  THERE IS A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS TO SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS IF
EXCEPTIONALLY INTENSE STORM SYSTEMS MOVE OVER THE AFFECTED AREAS.

ALTHOUGH CALIFORNIA HAS BEEN THROUGH THREE CONSECUTIVE YEARS OF
DROUGHT AND HAVE BEEN PREPARING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF IT
CONTINUING INTO 2010... THERE ARE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE SEASONAL PRECIPITATION AND/OR HAVE
NEAR TO MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE MOUNTAIN SNOWPACKS.  A FEW OF THESE
BASINS ALSO HAVE NEAR TO MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE STORAGE TO LARGE
RESERVOIRS AS OF FEBRUARY 28.  SPRING RUNOFF FORECASTS ARE NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOUNTAIN WATERSHEDS FROM THE
TUOLUMNE RIVER TO THE KERN.  AN AVERAGE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL
RISK IS INDICATED FOR AREAS IMPACTED BY ONE OR MORE OF THESE
FACTORS AT THE PRESENT TIME.

UPPER KLAMATH LAKE BASIN:
A BELOW AVERAGE SNOWPACK SO FAR THIS SEASON HAS TRANSLATED TO MUCH
BELOW AVERAGE WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS FOR THE REGION.  THE BASIN
RECEIVED ABOUT 60 PERCENT OF THE MONTHLY AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IN
FEBRUARY AND THE SEASONAL AVERAGE (OCTOBER 1 2009 TO FEBRUARY 28
2010) STANDS AT 67 PERCENT.  THE WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOWPACK AS OF
MARCH 1ST IS 72 PERCENT OF AVERAGE AS OPPOSED TO 85 PERCENT AT THAT
TIME LAST YEAR.  RUNOFF IS ABOUT 64 PERCENT OF THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE.  STORAGE AT UPPER KLAMATH LAKE IS AT 63 PERCENT OF AVERAGE
AS OF FEBRUARY 28.  THE APRIL THROUGH SEPTEMBER RUNOFF FORECAST FOR
THE UPPER KLAMATH LAKE INFLOW AS OF MARCH 1ST IS MUCH BELOW AVERAGE
AT 61 PERCENT.  THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR THE UPPER KLAMATH LAKE
BASIN IS BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE BELOW AVERAGE SNOWPACK AND
SEASONAL PRECIPITATION RECEIVED IN THE WATERSHED.  FLOODING COULD
OCCUR DURING WARM STORM EVENTS WITH HIGH MELT LEVELS DURING THE PEAK
SNOWMELT SEASON.

NORTH COASTAL AND SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA DRAINAGES:
RAINFALL SO FAR THIS SEASON HAS BEEN JUST BELOW AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE REGION EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER KLAMATH RIVER
DRAINAGE:

                     FEB PCT AVG     SEASONAL PCT AVG
     SMITH RIVER          91                 92
     LOWER KLAMATH        59                 70
     TRINITY              87                 94
     EEL RIVER            71                 93
     RUSSIAN              78                101
     NAPA                 87                110
     SF BAY AREA          92                108

SNOWPACK STANDS AT ABOUT 131 PERCENT OF THE APRIL 1ST AVERAGE IN
THE TRINITY BASIN BUT TRINITY LAKE ONE OF THE LARGE RESERVOIRS IN
THE REGION - STANDS AT ONLY 66 OF AVERAGE AS OF FEBRUARY 28. THE
APRIL THROUGH JULY RUNOFF FORECAST FOR THE TRINITY RIVER INFLOW IS
117 PERCENT OF AVERAGE. IT IS EXPECTED THAT RESERVOIRS AND RIVER
CHANNELS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE RUNOFF FROM EXCESSIVE
PRECIPITATION OR SNOWMELT THIS SEASON. THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL
FOR THE NORTH COASTAL BASINS IS BELOW AVERAGE.

SACRAMENTO DRAINAGE:
PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE THUS FAR THIS
SEASON FOR THE SACRAMENTO RIVER DRAINAGE.  SEASONAL AMOUNTS RANGE
FROM 115 PERCENT FOR THE UPPER SACRAMENTO AND TAPERS DOWN TO 90
PERCENT FOR THE FEATHER... 86 PERCENT FOR THE YUBA... AND 81 PERCENT
FOR THE AMERICAN RIVER BASIN AS OF FEBRUARY 28. MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK IN
THE SACRAMENTO RIVER DRAINAGE VARYS FROM 91 PERCENT OF THE APRIL
1ST AVERAGE FOR THE UPPER SACRAMENTO... 96 PERCENT FOR THE
FEATHER... 88 PERCENT FOR THE YUBA... AND 95 PERCENT FOR THE
AMERICAN RIVER BASIN. SNOWPACKS ARE MUCH ABOVE THE APRIL 1ST
AVERAGE AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. RESERVOIR STORAGE FOR THE REGION IS ABOUT 86
PERCENT OF THE FEBRUARY 28 AVERAGE. IT WAS 72 PERCENT AT THIS TIME
LAST YEAR. AFTER BEING MUCH BELOW AVERAGE LAST WATER YEAR... ONE
OF THE TWO LARGEST RESERVOIRS IN THE REGION ...SHASTA LAKE... HAS
SEEN SIGNIFICANT GAINS SO FAR THIS SEASON AND STANDS AT 103
PERCENT AS OF FEBRUARY 28. STORAGE AT LAKE OROVILLE STILL LAGS
BEHIND AND IS AT 54 PERCENT OF AVERAGE AS OF FEBRUARY 28. THE
APRIL THROUGH JULY WATER SUPPLY RUNOFF PROJECTIONS RANGE FROM 110
PERCENT OF AVERAGE FOR THE SACRAMENTO RIVER AT DELTA... 105
PERCENT FOR THE MC CLOUD RIVER ABOVE SHASTA LAKE... 94 PERCENT FOR
THE UPPER SACRAMENTO AT SHASTA DAM... 93 PERCENT FOR THE YUBA...
85 PERCENT FOR THE FEATHER AND 88 PERCENT FOR THE AMERICAN RIVER.
BECAUSE OF THE BELOW AVERAGE SEASONAL PRECIPITATION RECEIVED SO
FAR... THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR THE SACRAMENTO RIVER
DRAINAGE IS BELOW AVERAGE. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT RESERVOIRS AND
RIVER CHANNELS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE RUNOFF FROM EXCESSIVE
PRECIPITATION OR SNOWMELT THIS SEASON.

CENTRAL COAST DRAINAGE:

RAINFALL SO FAR THIS SEASON HAS BEEN JUST BELOW AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE REGION EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER KLAMATH RIVER
DRAINAGE:

                     FEB PCT AVG     SEASONAL PCT AVG
     SAN LORENZO          94                100
     PAJARO              120                124
     SALINAS RIVER       113                125
     SAN LUIS OBISPO      82                115
     SANTA YNEZ           82                131

THE REGION RECORDED UNUSUALLY HIGH MONTHLY RECIPITATION AVERAGES
DURING OCTOBER AS WELL AS NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION DURING
DECEMBER AND JANUARY.  THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS BELOW AVERAGE
FOR ALL BASINS IN THE CENTRAL COAST DRAINAGE EXCEPT THE SANTA YNEZ
RIVER WHERE IT IS AVERAGE.  IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT RESERVOIRS AND
RIVER CHANNELS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE RUNOFF FROM EXCESSIVE
PRECIPITATION THIS SEASON.

SAN JOAQUIN DRAINAGE:
ALTHOUGH BASINS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN DRAINAGE HAVE EXPERIENCED MUCH
BELOW TO BELOW AVERAGE SPRING RUNOFF AMOUNTS FOR THREE CONSECUTIVE
YEARS... WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS HAVE IMPROVED FROM THIS TIME LAST
YEAR.  WATERSHEDS FROM THE TUOLUMNE RIVER TO THE UPPER SAN JOAQUIN
ARE FORECAST TO HAVE NEAR AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
APRIL-JULY VOLUMES THIS SPRING.  SNOWPACK CONDITIONS IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN DRAINAGE ARE NEAR AVERAGE SO FAR THIS YEAR.  SNOWPACKS RANGE
FROM 89 PERCENT OF THE APRIL 1ST AVERAGE FOR THE MERCED TO ABOUT 102
PERCENT FOR THE UPPER SAN JOAQUIN.  SEASONAL PRECIPITATION VARIES
FROM 88 PERCENT FOR THE STANISLAUS BASIN TO 121 PERCENT FOR THE
UPPER SAN JOAQUIN.  SEASONAL AVERAGE STORAGE IN THE MAJOR RESERVOIRS
HAVE INCREASED FROM LAST YEAR.  THE LARGE RESERVOIRS IN THE
REGION...NEW MELONES...NEW DON PEDRO...AND LAKE MC CLURE ARE AT
88... 110... AND 94 PERCENT OF THE FEBRUARY 28TH AVERAGE
RESPECTIVELY.  IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT RESERVOIRS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO HANDLE RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT THIS SPRING.  BECAUSE OF THE
NEAR AVERAGE CONDITION OF THE SNOWPACK... THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL
OUTLOOK FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN DRAINAGE IS AVERAGE FOR THE MOUNTAIN
DRAINAGES FROM THE TUOLUMNE RIVER TO THE UPPER SAN JOAQUIN RIVER.
THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FROM THE COSUMNES RIVER BASIN TO THE
STANISLAUS IS BELOW AVERAGE.  SOME SNOWMELT FLOODING COULD OCCUR IF
TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS OVER THE NEXT FEW
MONTHS.

TULARE LAKE DRAINAGE:
LIKE THE SAN JOAQUIN DRAINAGE... THE TULARE LAKE DRAINAGE HAS
EXPERIENCED MUCH BELOW TO BELOW AVERAGE SPRING RUNOFF DURING THE
PAST THREE YEARS.  HOWEVER... THE SNOWPACK CONDITIONS IN THE TULARE
LAKE DRAINAGE VARY FROM JUST BELOW AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE THIS
YEAR.  SNOWPACKS RANGE FROM 88 PERCENT OF THE APRIL 1ST AVERAGE FOR
THE KINGS RIVER BASIN...116 PERCENT FOR THE KERN... AND 127 PERCENT
FOR THE KAWEAH RIVER BASIN.  SEASONAL PRECIPITATION VARIES FROM 121
PERCENT FOR THE TULE RIVER BASIN TO ABOUT 132 PERCENT FOR THE KERN.
STORAGE AS OF FEBRUARY 28 AT PINE FLAT RESERVOIR ON THE KINGS AND
LAKE ISABELLA ON THE KERN ARE BELOW AVERAGE AT 93 AND 72 PERCENT...
RESPECTIVELY.  RESERVOIRS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE RUNOFF FROM
SNOWMELT THIS SPRING.  SEASONAL RUNOFF SO FAR VARIES FROM 61 PERCENT
FOR THE TULE RIVER INFLOW TO SUCCESS ... 92 PERCENT FOR THE KINGS
RIVER AT PINE FLAT AND 95 PERCENT FOR THE KAWEAH INFLOW TO
TERMINUS. THE APRIL THROUGH JULY WATER SUPPLY FORECAST CALLS FOR
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE RUNOFF FOR ALL MAJOR RIVERS IN THE
REGION. SOME SNOWMELT FLOODING COULD OCCUR IF TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY
WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. BECAUSE OF
THE GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE CONDITION OF THE SNOWPACK... THE
SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR THE TULARE BASIN IS AVERAGE.

SOUTH COAST DRAINAGE:
SEASONAL PRECIPITATION IS PREDOMINANTLY ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR MOST STATIONS IN THE REGION.  MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION FELL
DURING OCTOBER... DECEMBER... AND JANUARY.  MONTHLY PERCENTAGE
PRECIPITATION FOR OCTOBER WAS PARTICULARLY HEAVY IN VENTURA AND
LOS ANGELES COUNTY.  DUE TO ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE SEASONAL
PRECIPITATION... THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS AVERAGE FOR THE SOUTH
COAST DRAINAGES AND MOUNTAINS.

SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA DESERTS:  EAST SLOPE SIERRA NEVADA
IN INYO COUNTY:  SEASONAL PRECIPITATION IS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE AND
SNOWPACKS RANGE FROM BELOW TO ABOVE THE APRIL 1ST AVERAGE IN THIS
REGION.  THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR
THE EAST SLOPE DRAINAGES OF THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS IN INYO
COUNTY.

SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA DESERTS:  EASTERN INYO COUNTY...DESERT AREAS
OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...EASTERN RIVERSIDE AND IMPERIAL COUNTIES:
SEASONAL PRECIPITATION IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THUS FAR THIS YEAR...MUCH OF IT IS DUE TO RAINFALL FROM STORMS
DURING OCTOBER...DECEMBER AND JANUARY.  THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS BELOW
AVERAGE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL INYO COUNTY...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF DEATH
VALLEY NATIONAL MONUMENT.  IT IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE PORTION OF
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY JUST NORTH OF BARSTOW TO THE INYO COUNTY
LINE.  BARSTOW IS RECORDING 176 PERCENT OF SEASONAL PRECIPITATION.
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
IS AVERAGE.  THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR EASTERN RIVERSIDE AND IMPERIAL
COUNTIES IS AVERAGE THIS SPRING...PRIMARILY DUE TO MUCH AVERAGE
SEASONAL PRECIPITATION.  THE FOLLOWING IS SEASONAL PRECIPITATION
PERCENTAGE AS OF OCTOBER 1 2009 TO MARCH 1 2010:

NEEDLES . . . . . 175 PERCENT
BLYTHE  . . . . . 203 PERCENT
NILAND  . . . . . 185 PERCENT
IMPERIAL  . . . . 170 PERCENT

THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRINGTIME FLOODING IS PRIMARILY CAUSED BY PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL INSTEAD OF SNOWMELT IN THIS REGION.  LARGE AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING CAN OCCUR AS THE RESULT OF PROLONGED HIGH
INTENSITY RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THESE AREAS.

$$
CNRFC/AJT
WFO STO/CM