Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS73 KDMX 271657 CCA
ESFDMX
IAC001-003-007-009-013-015-017-023-025-027-029-033-039-047-049-051-
053-063-069-073-075-077-079-081-083-091-099-109-117-121-123-125-127-
135-147-151-153-157-159-161-169-171-173-175-179-181-185-187-189-195-
197-280500-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA...CORRECTED
1155 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2008
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS...
THIS OUTLOOK PROVIDES LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS FOR
RIVER BASINS IN IOWA. THIS OUTLOOK IS DIVIDED INTO TWO PARTS...ONE
FOR HIGH WATER...AND ONE FOR LOW WATER.
A BRIEF EXPLANATION OF THE METHODOLOGY USED IN CREATING THESE
FORECASTS IS GIVEN AT THE END OF THIS OUTLOOK.
IN THE FIRST TABLE BELOW FOR HIGH WATER...THE 90 THROUGH 10
PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE
LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE...THE EAST
FORK DES MOINES RIVER AT ALGONA HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 14 FEET. IN
THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE STAGE
REACHING 10.0 FEET.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID 09/01/2008 - 11/30/2008
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
E FK DES MOINES RIVER
ALGONA 14 7.2 7.4 7.9 8.2 8.6 9.1 10.0 11.9 16.4
DAKOTA CITY 20 7.9 8.1 8.3 8.4 8.6 8.7 9.0 9.9 13.2
BOONE RIVER
WEBSTER CITY 12 2.3 2.3 2.9 3.6 4.2 5.0 5.7 6.3 8.3
BEAVER CREEK
GRIMES 12 3.7 4.4 5.3 5.7 6.5 7.1 7.7 8.0 10.0
N RACCOON RIVER
JEFFERSON 19 5.8 5.8 5.8 6.4 6.8 7.4 8.7 9.9 13.8
PERRY 15 5.4 5.4 5.5 6.7 7.3 8.1 10.1 11.6 15.8
S RACCOON RIVER
REDFIELD 20 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.6 5.0 5.3 5.6 6.3 8.8
RACCOON RIVER
VAN METER 16 4.1 4.2 4.9 5.3 6.0 6.7 8.1 8.8 12.0
DSM - HWY 28 32 23.3 23.4 24.0 24.4 25.1 26.4 27.7 28.4 31.1
DSM - FLEUR 12 1.8 2.0 3.0 3.4 4.2 6.1 7.8 8.4 11.3
NORTH RIVER
NORWALK 18 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.6 5.9 7.0 8.5 11.0 13.0
MIDDLE RIVER
INDIANOLA 19 7.8 9.9 11.3 12.3 13.1 13.8 15.4 16.4 22.7
SOUTH RIVER
ACKWORTH 26 6.6 6.8 7.8 9.1 9.7 10.9 12.4 13.8 16.9
CEDAR CREEK
BUSSEY 18 5.8 6.6 7.1 7.6 8.7 9.4 11.3 12.1 17.5
DES MOINES RIVER
ESTHERVILLE 7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.6 4.5 6.2
EMMETSBURG 10 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.7 3.3 4.8 6.4
HUMBOLDT 8 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.8 5.4 6.9 8.6
FORT DODGE 10 3.7 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.7 5.1 6.3 8.7
STRATFORD 14 5.4 5.9 6.8 7.7 8.4 9.4 10.1 11.6 15.6
DSM-2ND AVE 23 13.6 13.9 14.3 14.6 15.1 15.5 16.4 17.4 18.2
DSM-SE 6TH 24 11.5 12.5 13.3 14.3 15.3 16.3 17.6 19.3 22.4
TRACY 14 4.1 5.2 5.5 6.4 7.0 8.0 9.1 9.2 9.2
OTTUMWA 10 2.8 3.6 4.0 4.7 5.2 6.1 6.9 7.3 9.8
CEDAR RIVER
JANESVILLE 11 1.3 1.4 2.1 2.6 2.9 3.6 4.1 6.0 8.5
W FK CEDAR RIVER
FINCHFORD 12 6.1 6.5 7.0 7.6 8.1 8.5 9.3 10.2 11.8
WINNEBAGO RIVER
MASON CITY 7 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.4 5.1 6.1 6.9
SHELL ROCK RIVER
SHELL ROCK 12 8.0 8.4 8.7 9.0 9.2 9.9 10.1 11.5 12.3
BEAVER CREEK
NEW HARTFRD 10 3.1 3.5 3.7 4.0 4.6 4.9 5.2 6.1 7.1
CEDAR RIVER
CEDAR FALLS 88 77.6 78.4 79.4 79.9 81.2 81.9 82.7 85.7 88.3
WATERLOO 12 5.6 5.9 6.2 6.4 6.8 7.3 7.9 9.4 11.4
IOWA RIVER
MARSHALLTOWN 15 9.6 10.1 10.8 11.6 12.1 12.5 13.2 14.1 15.4
SOUTH SKUNK RIVER
AMES 3N 14 3.5 3.6 3.9 4.3 4.8 5.2 5.8 6.2 7.5
SQUAW CREEK
AMES 9 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.7 3.1 3.4 3.6 4.7
SOUTH SKUNK RIVER
AMES 5SE 20 10.0 10.4 10.9 11.5 12.3 13.3 14.4 15.2 17.2
COLFAX 17 7.8 7.9 8.1 8.5 9.0 10.0 10.6 11.0 13.6
OSKALOOSA 17 8.7 9.0 9.3 10.2 11.4 12.2 13.8 15.7 18.4
EAST NISHNABOTNA R
ATLANTIC 17 2.7 3.0 3.5 4.1 4.4 5.9 6.7 7.7 12.9
E 102 RIVER
BEDFORD 21 11.3 11.8 12.2 12.6 13.9 14.8 16.6 17.5 19.8
THOMPSON RIVER
DAVIS CITY 9 1.1 1.4 1.6 2.0 2.8 3.7 4.3 6.8 12.2
CHARITON RIVER
CHARITON 15 4.7 9.3 11.5 12.8 13.9 14.7 16.4 17.4 18.9
MOULTON 35 24.7 24.7 24.9 26.5 26.9 29.6 32.3 34.8 36.5
S FK CHARITON RIVER
PROMISE CITY 18 3.3 5.5 8.3 9.5 12.2 16.6 17.9 21.1 23.7
IN THIS NEXT TABLE...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE
THE CHANCE THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN
THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
FOR EXAMPLE...THE BOONE RIVER AT WEBSTER CITY HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF
12.0 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE
STAGE FALLING TO 2.1 FEET.
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID 09/01/2008 - 11/30/2008
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
E FK DES MOINES RIVER
ALGONA 14 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.4 6.8 7.0 7.1
DAKOTA CITY 20 7.7 7.7 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.9 7.9
BOONE RIVER
WEBSTER CITY 12 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2
BEAVER CREEK
GRIMES 12 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5
N RACCOON RIVER
JEFFERSON 19 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.6
PERRY 15 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.6 4.9
S RACCOON RIVER
REDFIELD 20 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.9
RACCOON RIVER
VAN METER 16 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.6
DSM - HWY 28 32 22.3 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.5 22.6 22.7 22.8 22.9
DSM - FLEUR 12 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.3
NORTH RIVER
NORWALK 18 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.6
MIDDLE RIVER
INDIANOLA 19 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.6
SOUTH RIVER
ACKWORTH 26 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.2
CEDAR CREEK
BUSSEY 18 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6
DES MOINES RIVER
ESTHERVILLE 7 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6
EMMETSBURG 10 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3
HUMBOLDT 8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3
FORT DODGE 10 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7
STRATFORD 14 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3
DSM-2ND AVE 23 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.9 13.2
DSM-SE 6TH 24 10.1 10.1 10.2 10.2 10.3 10.3 10.4 10.4 10.6
TRACY 14 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.7
OTTUMWA 10 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.4
CEDAR RIVER
JANESVILLE 11 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2
W FK CEDAR RIVER
FINCHFORD 12 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.0
WINNEBAGO RIVER
MASON CITY 7 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3
SHELL ROCK RIVER
SHELL ROCK 12 7.7 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.9 7.9 7.9
BEAVER CREEK
NEW HARTFRD 10 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 3.0
CEDAR RIVER
CEDAR FALLS 88 76.7 76.8 76.8 76.9 76.9 77.0 77.1 77.3 77.3
WATERLOO 12 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5
IOWA RIVER
MARSHALLTOWN 15 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.1 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.5
SOUTH SKUNK RIVER
AMES 3N 14 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4
SQUAW CREEK
AMES 9 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7
SOUTH SKUNK RIVER
AMES 5SE 20 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.8
COLFAX 17 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.6
OSKALOOSA 17 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 8.0 8.4
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES
THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR
MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS
OF THE RIVER... SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY
LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING
THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED
WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF EACH MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
ALL OF THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT ON THE
DES MOINES NWS INTERNET HOMEPAGE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES
(LOWER CASE).
$$
PODRAZIK
