Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.
000
FGUS74 KSJT 021631
ESFSJT
TXC049-059-081-083-095-105-151-207-235-253-267-307-319-327-353-
399-411-413-417-431-435-441-447-451-022245-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1131 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008
...DROUGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM)...ISSUED THROUGH THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER ON APRIL 29...DEPICTS MODERATE
AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST HILL
COUNTRY AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...THESE AREAS HAVE RECEIVED ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION AND HAVE MISSED SOME OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS
AND SEVERE WEATHER. IMPROVEMENTS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AS NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM EVENTS HAVE BROUGHT
BENEFICIAL RAIN TO THE AREA. JUST IN THE LAST TWO WEEKS...AREAS
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY HAVE RECEIVED ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN. IN
ADDITION...THE AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM STERLING CITY
TO MASON RECEIVED ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS UP TO FOUR INCHES. THIS RECENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
BROUGHT DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL TO AREA CROPS...BUT THE RAIN HAS
MADE CONSIDERABLE IMPROVEMENTS TO SOIL MOISTURE.
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS.
THE RAIN HAS ALSO BROUGHT IMPROVEMENTS TO FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF WILDLAND FIRES CONTINUES AS
DRYING WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE FOLLOWED THE RAIN EVENTS.
IT ONLY TAKES A FEW DRY AND WINDY PERIODS TO DEPLETE MOISTURE.
AS OF MAY 2...THE FOLLOWING WEST CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES SUPPORT A
COUNTY WIDE OUTDOOR BURN BAN.
COKE...KIMBLE...STERLING AND SUTTON.
THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX
(KBDI) AS A SYSTEM FOR RELATING CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED FIRE BEHAVIOR. IT IS A
NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS
AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX
RANGES FROM 0 TO 800...WITH 0 REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND
800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL. AS OF MAY 1...THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT
INDEX SHOWS THAT AREAS FROM THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY TO THE
NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY FALL WITHIN THE
400 TO 600 RANGE. THIS RANGE IS CHARACTERIZED AS TYPICAL OF LATE
SUMMER...EARLY FALL. LOWER LITTER AND DUFF LAYERS ACTIVELY
CONTRIBUTE TO FIRE INTENSITY AND WILL BURN ACTIVELY. NOTE THAT
FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM DAY TO DAY AS WINDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY. THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE ADVISES TO WATCH
OUT FOR KEY WEATHER THRESHOLDS OF WINDS ABOVE 15 MPH AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BELOW 25 PERCENT. WHEN THESE THRESHOLDS ARE
EXCEEDED...EXPECT THE FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED.
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS.
ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS CROP WEATHER REPORT ISSUED APRIL 30 BY THE
TEXAS A&M AGRICULTURE PROGRAM...THE FOLLOWING AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS
WERE NOTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...DRY WARM AND WINDY DAYS
CONTINUED WITH ALL COUNTIES NEEDING RAIN...A FEW AREAS REPORTED
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS... SPRING WORK ON IMPROVED PASTURES IS IN
FULL SWING...PRODUCERS WERE APPLYING HERBICIDES AND FERTILIZERS...
SOME SORGHUM WAS BEING PLANTED... AREA FARMERS WERE GETTING READY
FOR COTTON PLANTING IN THE NEXT MONTH...SMALL GRAINS WERE HEADING
OUT BUT MOST STANDS WERE SHORT AND VERY THIN...CUTTING AND BALING
OF SOME WHEAT AND OAT FIELDS WAS UNDER WAY...RANGE AND PASTURES
IMPROVED WITH RECENT RAINS...LIVESTOCK BODY CONDITIONS IMPROVED AS
FORAGES GREENED UP.
CLIMATE SUMMARY...
AREAS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS RECEIVED MUCH NEEDED RAIN DURING
APRIL. THE FOLLOWING REMARKS SUMMARIZE THE APRIL AND YEAR TO DATE
RAINFALL AT ABILENE...SAN ANGELO AND JUNCTION...
IN ABILENE...2.44 INCHES OF RAIN WAS REPORTED IN APRIL WHICH WAS
0.77 OF AN INCH ABOVE THE NORMAL MONTHLY AMOUNT OF 1.67 INCHES.
FOR THE PERIOD JANUARY THROUGH APRIL...ABILENE RECEIVED 7.35
INCHES OF RAIN WHICH WAS 2.17 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
IN SAN ANGELO...0.62 OF AN INCH OF RAIN WAS REPORTED IN APRIL
WHICH WAS 0.98 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL MONTHLY AMOUNT OF 1.60
INCHES. FOR THE PERIOD JANUARY THROUGH APRIL...SAN ANGELO RECEIVED
5.95 INCHES OF RAIN WHICH WAS 1.36 INCHES ABOVE THE NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD.
IN JUNCTION...0.86 OF AN INCH OF RAIN WAS REPORTED IN APRIL. THE
NORMAL MONTHLY RAINFALL FOR APRIL IN JUNCTION IS ABOUT 1.75 TO 2.00
INCHES. FOR THE PERIOD JANUARY THROUGH APRIL...JUNCTION RECEIVED
2.77 INCHES OF RAIN. NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE PERIOD JANUARY
THROUGH APRIL IN JUNCTION IS ABOUT 5.75 INCHES.
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK FOR MAY THROUGH JULY
INDICATES THAT THERE ARE EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...NEAR AND BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON CLIMATE TRENDS AND INDICATIONS OF WEAK
LA NINA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD MAY THROUGH JULY.
THE LATEST U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD MAY
THROUGH JULY SHOWS THAT DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST
ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS WHERE IT HAS DEVELOPED. SHORT TERM
IMPROVEMENTS OVER AREAS ARE POSSIBLE AS THERE ARE GOOD CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY SUMMER MONTHS.
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS...
WHILE THE RAINFALL OVER THE LAST TWO MONTHS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
AREA RESERVOIRS AND STOCK TANKS...THE APPROACH OF SUMMER BRINGS
CONCERN THAT OUR SURFACE WATER SUPPLIES WILL RAPIDLY DEPRECIATE.
ACCORDING TO THE USGS WATERWATCH... FLOWS IN AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS ARE ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AT THE END OF APRIL 2008...
/ CURRENT CONSERVATION CURRENT %
/ ELEVATION CAPACITY CAPACITY CONSERVATION
RESERVOIR (FT) (AC-FT) (AC-FT) CAPACITY
FORT PHANTOM HILL 1635.60 70036 68870 98
LAKE STAMFORD 1415.70 51570 46170 90
HUBBARD CREEK 1182.58 318070 318070 100
HORDS CREEK LAKE 1897.55 8112 6950 86
LAKE BROWNWOOD 1423.47 131428 124810 95
E.V. SPENCE 1847.72 517272 68750 13
O.C. FISHER 1869.39 119200 9720 8
O.H. IVIE 1541.10 554340 377700 68
TWIN BUTTES (N+S) 1924.20 186200 86610 49
LAKE NASWORTHY 1871.07 10108 8540 84
NEXT ISSUANCE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AS NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.
RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
OUR LOCAL DROUGHT WEB PAGE...
HTTP://WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/SJT/HTML/CLIMATE/DROUGHT.HTML
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/
OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST... HTTP://WWW.MET.TAMU.EDU/OSC/
NWS...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/
USGS...HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/
USACE...HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL/
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA/S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE
USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN
GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE
EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
7654 KNICKERBOCKER ROAD
SAN ANGELO TEXAS 76904
PHONE: 325-944-9445
NWS.SANANGELO@NOAA.GOV
$$
