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Lat: 29.97N, Lon: 92.12W
Wx Zone: LAZ052 CWA Used: LCH

Louisiana Drought Monitor

The Louisiana Drought monitor is a subset of the United States Monitor, issued every Thursday morning, based on drought conditions the previous Tuesday. The map below shows the current drought level around the state, and the percent of Louisiana land area in each drought level compared to the previous week.

Read an explanation of the drought intensities and what they mean.

Louisiana Drought Monitor

Louisiana Hydrologic Information Statement

Note that if drought conditions are not being experienced, or in the case of river flooding or heavy rain, this statement may be used to indicate river flows or flood potential.

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FGUS74 KLCH 062128
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LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
071200-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
328 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST 
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

INTRODUCTION...

THIS IS THE 2014 SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA. THIS ISSUANCE
OUTLINES CURRENT RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS AND HIGHLIGHTS
POTENTIAL SITUATIONS THAT COULD INDUCE FLOODING.

ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...
DURING THE PAST TWO MONTHS...SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST AND 
CENTRAL LOUISIANA HAVE EXPERIENCED GENERALLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL 
PRECIPITATION. THIS CORRESPONDS TO THE WATER YEAR SO FAR (SINCE 
OCTOBER 1 2013) WITH RAIN TOTALS RUNNING BETWEEN 50 AND 90 PERCENT 
OF NORMAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW POCKETS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS 
WHERE RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN NEAR NORMAL. COLDER TEMPERATURES HAVE 
ALLOWED SOME OF THE WINTER EVENTS TO BE IN THE FORM OF FROZEN 
PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING ONE IN EARLY MARCH THAT PRODUCED LIGHT 
AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.

ACCORDING TO THE US GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS)...CURRENT 28 DAY 
AVERAGE STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NECHES AND SABINE BASINS IN 
SOUTHEAST TEXAS SHOW BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS...WHILE 28 DAY AVERAGE 
STREAMFLOWS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA (OUTSIDE OF THE 
SABINE BASIN) ARE NEAR NORMAL.

THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATES THAT NO AREAS ARE CURRENTLY IN 
DROUGHT...HOWEVER PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTH 
CENTRAL LOUISIANA ARE NOTED AS BEING ABNORMALLY DRY. 

ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, SOIL MOISTURE 
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS. SNOW MELT AND COLDER 
GROUND TEMPERATURES HAVE ALLOWED MANY OF THE PRECIPITATION EVENTS TO 
GENERATE MORE RUNOFF THAN IN PAST YEARS. 

RIVER BASIN HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...

...NECHES AND SABINE RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES...

RAINFALL THE PAST TWO MONTHS HAS BEEN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL 
ON THE SABINE AND NECHES BASINS. SEASONAL FLOODING HAS OCCURRED 
ALONG THE LOWER SABINE BASIN WITH ELEVATED FLOWS ON THE LOWER NECHES 
AND ITS TRIBUTARIES DUE TO COLDER TEMPERATURES PRODUCING HIGHER 
RUNOFF. DRIER CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED STREAMFLOWS TO RECEDE TO BELOW 
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RESERVOIRS ON THE SABINE AND NECHES 
BASINS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR OR JUST BELOW CONSERVATION POOL LEVELS. 
SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NORMAL AND NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR 
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOW...AND NORMAL SPRING 
RAINFALL PATTERNS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING FLOODING IS NORMAL TO 
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AT THIS TIME. IT SHOULD BE REMEMBERED THAT 
FLOODING IN THE SABINE AND NECHES BASINS RESULTS FROM HEAVY RAINFALL 
OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AND THESE OCCURRENCES CAN NOT BE 
PREDICTED WELL IN ADVANCE.

...CALCASIEU...MERMENTAU AND VERMILION RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES...

DURING THE PAST TWO MONTHS, PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL OVER 
THE CALCASIEU AND MERMENTAU BASINS BUT SEASONAL FLOODING HAS 
OCCURRED DUE TO COLDER TEMPERATURES PRODUCING HIGHER RUNOFF. DRIER 
CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED STREAMFLOW TO RECEDE TO BELOW NORMAL 
CONDITIONS. SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NORMAL AND NO FLOODING IS 
OCCURRING OR EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OBSERVED DAILY 
STREAMFLOWS AS A PERCENT OF MEAN ARE GIVEN BELOW.

                                              3/5
CALCASIEU RIVER              GLENMORA LA      36%       
CALCASIEU RIVER                KINDER LA      62%        
MERMENTAU RIVER             MERMENTAU LA      79%         

IN ADDITION...THE OBSERVED DAILY STREAMFLOW FOR THE VERMILION RIVER 
AT LAFAYETTE SURREY STREET AS OF MARCH 5 IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE ITS 
HISTORICAL MEAN.

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOW...AND NORMAL SPRING 
RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS 
THE MERMENTAU AND CALCASIEU BASINS. 

...LOWER RED RIVER...

STREAMFLOWS ARE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE RED RIVER BASIN DOWNSTREAM OF 
FULTON ARKANSAS. DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE UPPER RED 
BASIN WITH ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE BASIN DOWNSTREAM OF 
FULTON ARKANSAS.  HOWEVER OVERALL SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NEAR 
NORMAL. NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR EXPECTED IN THE LOWER RED RIVER 
BASIN.

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOWS...AND NORMAL SPRING 
RAINFALL PATTERNS...A BELOW AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED 
ACROSS THE LOWER RED RIVER VALLEY.

...ATCHAFALAYA RIVER...
SNOWFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI 
VALLEYS THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW 
DEPTHS ACROSS THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY. HOWEVER...SNOW MELT 
FROM THIS SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER 
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INCLUDING THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. 

ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE SMALLER TRIBUTARIES OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER 
HAVE EXPERIENCED SEASONAL FLOODING THIS WINTER...NO FLOODING HAS 
OCCURRED ON THE LOWER OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS. WARMER 
TEMPERATURES LAST WEEK MELTED MUCH OF THE SNOW IN THE MID AND UPPER 
OHIO VALLEY AND WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE CRESTS ASSOCIATED WITH 
SNOWMELT AND RAIN ARE APPROACHING MEMPHIS, TN. 

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY NORMAL OVER THE ATCHAFALAYA 
RIVER VALLEY. AS OF MARCH 5...STREAMFLOW ON THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER 
NEAR SIMMESPORT WAS NEAR 102% OF NORMAL.

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE...STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...AND NORMAL 
SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS...AN AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED 
ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND ATCHAFALAYA RIVERS. THE MAGNITUDE OF 
FUTURE CRESTS WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT AND EXTENT OF ANY UPSTREAM 
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW COVER AND RESULTANT SNOWMELT...COUPLED WITH 
THE FREQUENCY...INTENSITY...AND EXTENT OF SPRING RAINS.

METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 7 TO 10 
DAYS...BRINGING OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN.  HOWEVER...RAIN SHOULD 
REMAIN LIGHT WITH AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN ONE INCH.

CLIMATOLOGICAL OUTLOOK...

THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 
INDICATES HIGHER CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEAST 
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. HIGHER CHANCES OF BELOW 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. 

THE 30-DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES 
FOR ABOVE...NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES FOR 
THE AREA...WHILE THE 90-DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES HIGHER CHANCES OF 
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH HIGHER CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES.

DROUGHT OUTLOOKS SHOW A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED IN THE 
ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY SPRING...ALTHOUGH THE 
SEASONAL OUTLOOK SHOWS DROUGHT CONDITIONS POSSIBLY RETURNING TO 
COASTAL SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA BY MAY.

PLEASE DIRECT QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THIS OUTLOOK TO...

JONATHAN BRAZZELL
SERVICE HYDROLOGIST
OR
MONTRA LOCKWOOD
FORECASTER
AT 337.477.5285 EXT 1

REFERENCES...
PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS:
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/

STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS: 
HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NWIS/RT

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/SOILMST_MONITORING/US/SOILMST/SOILMST.SHTM
L

US DROUGHT MONITOR AND OUTLOOK:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/EXPERT_ASSESSMENT/SEASON_DROUGHT.GIF

TX DROUGHT INFORMATION:
HTTP://WWW.TWDB.STATE.TX.US/APPS/DROUGHTINFO/ALLMAPVIEW.ASPX

CLIMATE GRAPHICS:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV/
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/LONG_RANGE/LEAD01/OFF01_TEMP.GIF
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/LONG_RANGE/LEAD01/OFF01_PRCP.GIF

$$