Several people have mentioned to me that this winter and early spring, there has been more wind than they remember from previous years. Looking at two ways of measuring the wind, this isn’t actually the case, based on my measurements.

One way of measuring wind is by the maximum wind speed recorded. So far this year at my weather station, the maximum wind gust was 29 miles per hour, and the maximum wind speed was 26 MPH, back on January 22nd. February and April recorded 26 MPH gusts, while March topped out at 25 MPH. In 2004, the maximum gust during the same three month period was 28 MPH, while in 2003, February saw 26 MPH.

Of course, these records aren’t official, and are probably lower than what would be measured if my wind gauge weren’t located halfway down my hilly street. For example, Atlanta Hartsfield airport reported 49 MPH gusts in both January and April.

A better way of measuring wind activity over time is by measuring the wind run. Wind run measures how far a parcel of air would travel if it were subject to winds recorded at a specific location. For example, if a wind speed of 10 MPH were recorded consistently over a 24 hour period, you would have a wind run of 240 miles.

In the first three months of 2005, I recorded wind runs of 1,028 miles in January, 876 miles in February, and 1,372 miles in March, for a total of 3,276 miles for the three month period. In 2004, the three month total was 4,178 miles with the windiest month being January, with 1,504 miles. In 2003, I measured 5,629 miles of wind run, with the strongest month again in January, with 2,056 miles.

So, in actuality, it seems that there has been less wind in the first three months of the year than any time in the last three years.

In the historical records department, the highest wind speed ever recorded was 231 miles per hour on April 12, 1934 at Mount Washington, New Hampshire. This spring, the record seems to be 192 MPH, recorded April 3rd at Grandfather Mountain, NC.

It seems like forever since we’ve had a really nice day. Despite the fact a week ago yesterday, I was able to sit outside at a coffee shop downtown, enjoying a high of 68, things went downhill quickly, and I think just about everyone is willing to forget this first week of February.

The bad weather here this week is in sharp contrast to what has been happening in the rest of the country. What we’ve seen is what weather folks call a ’split flow’ pattern, where the northern jetstream doesn’t go much below the Canadian border, and the southern jetstream comes north and bothers the Southeast.

This has led to temperatures forecasts for today of 62 degrees in Billings, Montana and 64 degrees in Rapid City, South Dakota. These are places where normal highs for early February are about 25 degrees.

The weather pattern is about to change, though, and Atlanta is headed for a warm-up, at least for a few days. Over the weekend, we should see 60 and very nice weather, with a moderate possibility of rain all next week, although still warm, with daytime highs in the upper 50s to low 60s, and nighttime lows in the 40s.

This is happening as a cold air mass prepares to move down from Canada and into these same areas that are enjoying warm temperatures today. By Tuesday in Rapid City, the forecast high is 20, with a low around 8.

We start to feel the effects of this next Friday and Saturday, which will be the first time temps drop back below the freezing mark. Overall, the National Weather Service forecast calls for above normal temps through the middle of next week, normal temperatures from the 9th through the 13th, and below normal temps until the 17th.

If there’s any consolation to all of this, it’s that less than normal precipitation is predicted for the next two weeks.

Weather Forecasting 101

Wind direction can tell us a lot about what is going to happen with the weather in the short term. To the right is today’s wind direction plot, which shows a transition from mostly easterly winds before noon, to mostly westerly winds after noon. The change in wind direction meant the end of the clouds and rain was coming, and indeed, by late afternoon, the sun was shining.

The National Weather Service in Boston is calling this weekend’s winter storm “a top 5 historic snowfall”. As the snow begins to die down, the temperature is in the low teens, and the area is expecting winds greater than 20 MPH, which will cause blowing and drifting snow throughout the area. Boston Logan reported a 55 MPH gust, while Nantucket reported an 84 MPH gust.

Snow reports from the area include:

Windsor Locks, CT - 12.5 inches as of 1:08 PM
Sandwich, MA - 24.0 inches as of 3:15 PM
Taunton, MA - 26.0 inches as of 3:31 PM, with five foot drifts
North Andover, MA - 33.0 inches as of 1:00 PM
Cambridge, MA - 30.0 inches as of 2:58 PM
Boston Common, MA - 26.0 inches as of 1:16 PM
Cranston, RI - 21.0 inches as of 2:53 PM

Locally, we too experienced a brisk wind throughout the day, with the temperature staying below the freezing mark. As I write this, we have had a wind run of 122 miles today, on top of 68 miles yesterday, with most of that after 9:00 PM.

Wind Run is a measurement that combines wind speed and wind duration. It measures the distance an object would be pushed by the wind if it were not subject to friction and gravity. Given that the total wind run for the month is 723 miles, we have had over a quarter of the total wind volume for the month in the last day.

After a cold night tonight, things look to warm up considerably as we move through the week. Wednesday looks to be the warmest day, with a high near 60, and after tomorrow night, we shouldn’t see overnight lows below 32 degrees until the first of February. A front will pass by on Thursday, but isn’t expected to bring any precipitation. Looking at the first week of February, things are a bit more unsettled, with the National Weather Service predicting warmer than normal temperatures, and normal precipitation.

A British psychologist has determined that January 24th is the most depressing day of the year for most people. This MSNBC article says that a combination of winter weather, breaking New Year’s resolutions, and holiday bills all reach their peak tomorrow. Have a nice day.