Well, in Georgia, not very much. But, if you’re in the Northwest United States, they are very good. Below is a map showing the probability of a white Christmas based on data from 1961 through 1990:

According to the folks at the NOAA National Data Centers, who put together the graphics, the chances of a white Christmas is greatest in Savannah and Brunswick, oddly enough, with a probability of under 5%. Elsewhere in the state, the chance of snow in virtually zero. The report (PDF) says that there are five places in the US that are virtually guaranteed of having one inch of snow on Christmas day, including Marquette and St. Ste. Marie, Michigan, Hibbing and International Falls, Minnesota, and Stampede Pass, Washington. You can also find out the probability of snow on Christmas for many other cities in the report.

This morning, our friends at the Gwinnett Daily Post led the paper with a two column headline, “Snow on Christmas Possible”. If I were you, I wouldn’t run to the local toy store and buy any sleds.

What’s most likely to happen is that after a few warmer days leading towards the weekend, a low pressure system will bring rain to metro Atlanta starting late Christmas Eve. With low temperatures around 40 degrees, it will certainly be all rain.

By Sunday evening, most of the bad weather will be pushed out of the area by the high pressure system that sits behind the low. The cold nature of this new system (particularly cold aloft) will set up conditions where any remaining moisture could turn to light flurries late Sunday night or early Monday morning. Anything that falls though isn’t likely to be a threat, as temperatures will climb to the mid 50s Monday afternoon.

If you want to see snow on Christmas, you’ll need to travel to New England, Michigan, or along the snow belt on the Great Lakes. However, if we do end up with some flurries, and they actually occur on the 25th rather than on the morning of the 26th, it will be the first time since 1993 that it’s happened, according to the Post.

On a side note, today is the Winter Solstice - the shortest day of the year. Although the sun has been setting slightly later since mid month, it has been rising later as well. Now, things begin to turn around, as the days get longer through mid-June.