Some of North Georgia got some welcome rain on Tuesday, as the front ahead of the low pressure system moved across the state yesterday afternoon. Here in Lawrenceville, I recorded .97 inches of precipitation yesterday, with most of the rain coming between 6 and 7 PM. That’s the most rain recorded here in a single day since back on August 24th, two months ago. As of now, a total of 1.3 inches of rain has fallen here from this system. By the way, the runoff from my roof was enough to fill a 250 gallon storage tank I installed and attached to two downspouts.

Other parts of the state have seen varying amounts. Here are some rainfall numbers from yesterday:

Atlanta Hartsfield: .56 inches
Alpharetta: .84 inches
Allatoona Dam: .66 inches
Athens: .27 inches
Cleveland: .38 inches
Cumming: .30 inches
Gainesville: .16 inches
Helen: .55 inches
Rome: .62 inches

Overall, it looks like there might have been less rain in the northeast part of the state containing the Lanier basin than here, but it’s probably going to be more useful to look at the storm total precipitation - rainfall today is likely to occur in the Georgia mountains. That being said, it looks like the bulk of the precipitation is over with from this system.

Water Restrictions Update

Ever since the state started level 4 water restrictions late last month, state EPD Director Carol Couch has been researching recommendations to further reduce water usage, with a report expected to be given to Governor Perdue this week. That report has been issued, and the result is that the Governor has ordered all water suppliers to reduce consumption in their systems by 10% from their average usage last winter, beginning November 1st. Systems out of compliance will face as of yet unspecified fines.

While some of the usual suspects have decried the move by the Governor as showing a lack of leadership, in the long run, it moves the responsibility for deciding how to allocate water usage to the local level, where specific needs can be evaluated within the city or county, and decisions can be made that will ultimately affect the economic well being of that county. Did you really want some minion in the state EPD to decide on further water restrictions that might be appropriate for, let’s say Atlanta, but don’t fit the needs of a county like Gwinnett or Hall?

Meanwhile, state climatologist David Stooksbury is holding a press conference in Athens tomorrow morning to discuss the current drought situation, and the long range outlook for winter and spring. I look forward to hearing what he has to say.

Hopefully, everyone is enjoying the pleasant temperatures that are actually a few degrees below normal. Tonight and Friday night are likely to be the coolest nights for North Georgia for the next few days, as a taste of fall strikes the area. The reason we’re getting the colder air is that a low pressure system sits to our north — essentially the remnants of the front that brought us some rain earlier in the week. Because the air around low pressure systems rotates counter-clockwise, the air movement is forcing colder Canadian air south into Georgia. However, the low is going to move out to sea quickly, and we will see a return to normal to above normal temperatures going into next week.

The good news is that, at least for a short while, we are possibly going to see a return to a more typical weather pattern for the second half of next week, at least as far as rainfall is concerned. If things work out as some models are suggesting, a series of fronts will move from the west coast to the east coast next week, bringing a reasonable chance of rain on Wednesday, and again on Friday. The Climate Prediction Center’s long range forecast is calling for a better than average chance of rain from the 19th through the 25th.

Let’s hope they’re right, because any rain at all will help the drought. In a front page article today, the Atlanta paper reported that there might only be three months more water left in Lake Lanier. Of course, they didn’t say whether that three month figure assumed no rain at all, normal precipitation, or a tropical system washing over Hall County. In the next few weeks, we are going to see some new recommendations from the state EPD on additional ways to conserve water.

The current level four restrictions are only reducing water usage by about 10% from what you would see normally. Barring exceptional rainfall, which grows less likely as the tropical season comes to an end, I don’t see those restrictions being lifted soon. The next round of restrictions could cause real pain, depending on where they land. For instance, the biggest water user in the city of Atlanta is Pepsi, which makes Gatorade here. You could save a lot of water by telling them to go bottle elsewhere, but that would put an extraordinary burden on one company and its workers. Or, you could tell golf courses, which are currently allowed to water their greens, to stop using water entirely. That would keep the burden in one industry as opposed to one site, but would effectively kill it off. or, do you cut off the flow down the Chattahoochee, and possibly cause the extinction of some mussels on the Florida coast?

If we don’t get some significant rain soon, we are going to have to make some wrenching decisions. I’m hoping we get a lot of rain next week.

The ramifications of the two year Georgia drought expanded yesterday, as the Georgia Environmental Protection Division decided to declare a level 4 drought response for the northern third of the state, while leaving the level 2 watering ban in place for the rest of the state. This map shows the counties affected by the two bans:

Level 4 watering restrictions mean that virtually all outdoor watering is verboten, while the level 2 restrictions limit watering to three days a week on an odd-even basis. The state took the measure primarily because the extent of the drought has reduced the water levels of north Georgia’s to primary water sources, lakes Allatoona and Lanier to the point where there is a real risk of fouling the water supply if the drought continues.

During a year of average rainfall, water levels in Georgia’s large reservoirs such as Lanier and Allatoona tend to drop in late summer and then recover as the winter rains arrive,” said State Climatologist Stooksbury. “But the forecast calls for a dry, mild winter and that could result in serious water supply problems by next spring.

This winter isn’t expected to bring too much relief due to an increase in La Nina conditions, which typically bring warmer than normal temperatures and less than normal precipitation to the southeast. The area specified for the level 4 drought response closely echoes the areas classified as being in exceptional drought conditions in the most recent drought monitor. While rainfall is mitigating the drought in the southern part of the state, a dry August and September in the northern part of Georgia has brought the drought to what EPD director Carol Crouch has called “historic proportions.” September rainfall has averaged around an inch in the northern part of the state, or about 25% of normal.

It doesn’t look like we’re going to get any relief soon. A high pressure system over the southeast is likely to keep us dry for the first two weeks of October, and although the tropics are busy, it appears unlikely that Karen and Melissa will maintain enough strength to reach the southeast coast.

Even if a tropical system were to come and somehow bring a foot of rain to north Georgia, I don’t think that we’re going to see an end to the watering ban until spring, when the La Nina conditions should be receding, and we’ll know how much winter rains filled up the lakes. It took over a year for conditions to get this dry, and it will take a while to get back to normal.

Yesterday, Georgia’s Environmental Protection Division tightened watering restrictions, moving from a level 1 restriction to a level 2 restriction. The bottom line is that instead of being allowed to water 3 days a week anytime, based on odd/even addresses, watering is only permitted between midnight and 10 AM three days a week.

The decision came following a number of fires in the Okefenokee Swamp in south Georgia this week that burned through thousands of acres. But, taking a look at the current drought conditions in Georgia shows a worsening in the past three weeks.

Compare the map above with one that was released on March 27th, and you can see things have worsened. Both the northwest and southeast corners of the state have entered a moderate or severe drought, while the middle, including metro Atlanta, remains abnormally dry.

However, the drought outlook for the next three months indicates improving conditions in the northwest part of the state, and some improvement in the south. The newly released one month and three month precipitation outlooks indicate equal chances of above or below precipitation for most of the country, including the southeast.

I wish I could offer hope for short term relief, but it doesn’t look like we’re going to be getting any substantial amount of rainfall, at least for the next week or so. There’s a small chance of rain next Tuesday and Thursday, and overall, it looks like dry conditions for the next two weeks.

So, get out and water early in the morning (which is better for your plants anyway), and let’s hope we get some rain soon.