The August heat wave looks like it will go on through Thursday, but at least here at my house, today was the warmest day so far in 2008. It got up to 99 degrees (well, 98.7) at 2:10 PM, topping the 97.1 reached on both June 8 and July 10. It could have been worse though: with the dew point in the low 60s, the heat index was only 102 degrees.

Temperatures reached the century mark today in Augusta, Milledgeville, Savannah, Athens and Vidalia. For whatever reason, it stayed a bit cooler in Atlanta today, with highs only in the low 90s. Tomorrow, the humidity goes back up, and by tomorrow afternoon, the approaching front will bring a chance of rainfall, and at least a temporary end to the excessive heat we’ve been seeing recently.

Hurricane Forecast Update

We’re about ready to get into the strongest part of the hurricane season, from mid-August through the end of October.  The folks at Colorado State University have updated their tropical forecast and are now calling for more storms than they predicted back in April and repeated in June.

Instead of 15 named storms, the predicted total has been upped to 17, with nine hurricanes, instead of eight. Five of those should be intense, compared to four predicted previously.  Part of the reason for upping the predictions is the number of storms we’ve seen through July, with four named storms, two hurricanes and one intense hurricane. That doesn’t count Edouard, which was the first storm in August.  According to the forecast, only 2005 (the year of Katrina) and 1916 have had more active pre-August tropical activity.

There’s a 2/3 chance of a major hurricane making landfall somewhere in the US during the rest of the season, with a better than 40% chance of a storm striking either the east coast or the gulf coast.  Overall, the forecasters are predicting a tropical season that is 190% as active than the average season from 1950-2000.

In addition to providing forecasts for the rest of the season, the Dr. Gray and his team are providing a forecast for August tropical activity. If they are right, we will have four storms, three of which will become hurricanes, and one intense hurricane this month. With Edouard already occuring, that’s the non-hurricane storm, if their forecast is correct. They will also issue forecasts for September and October at the beginning of those months.

Despite predictions of a reasonable chance of rain this past weekend, it looks like June will end up adding to the North Georgia drought. Overall, it ended up being drier than normal and warmer than normal in the northern half of the Peach state.

The official Atlanta rain gauge at Hartsfield airport ended up having the lowest measured rainfall for the month, with only .58 inches, or 16% of normal precipitation. Over half of that rain (.32 in) came during Sunday’s storm. Peachtree DeKalb had 1.15 inches for the month, 29% of normal, with only .11 inches falling Sunday. Athens had .73 inches of rain on Sunday, more than half of its 1.22 inches for the month, 31% of normal. Gainesville ended the month with 1.94 inches of rain, or 51% of its normal June total, and had only .12 inches Sunday. A little further south in Macon, rainfall was more plentiful, with 3.54 inches, 154% of normal for the month.

Here in Lawrenceville, I only recorded a measly .03 inches of rain in Sunday’s storm, but ended up with 2.24 inches of rain, mostly from the storms on Thursday and Friday nights. That’s still about 2/3 of the 3.75 inches of rain you would expect in a normal June. Atlanta is now just over 7 inches short of normal year to date rainfall.

The month will go down as the third driest June recorded in Atlanta - the record was .16 inches back in 1988. It was the fifth driest in Athens, and the ninth driest in Columbus. It was also warmer than normal, averaging around 3 degrees above the average temperature, primarily due to our early June heat wave.

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The temperature here in Lawrenceville topped 90 degrees for the first time in 2008 today, with a maximum of 91.4 degrees at 2PM.  In Atlanta, today’s high was only 89.  But in any case, they’ll have another chance tomorrow and indeed for the next week or so, as we are under the influence of an upper level high pressure system that will keep the warmer than normal temperatures around, and probably keep the rain away as well.

All in all, temperatures are running about 6 degrees above normal for early June.  And, this is about the usual time we see 90 degrees — last year we topped 90 on June 6th, in 2006 on May 24th, and in 2005 on June 14th.

Longtime blog reader Morgan Kemp reminds us of the ongoing drought by posting some comments by Georgia climatologist David Stooksbury made at this time last year, when the drought’s effects were really setting in. Actually, we’re doing a bit better this year through May.  While most of Georgia had less than normal rainfall for the month, Atlanta is only 4 inches short of normal for the year, and Athens has had 6.4 inches less than what would be expected.  Through the end of May, Atlanta recorded 18.65 inches of precipitation for 2008, compared to 11.73 inches for the same period in 2007.

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It looks like Old Man Winter is going to take one more shot at Georgia over the next few days, and that could be bad news for gardeners and farmers across the state for a second year in a row. The Weather Service is calling for low temperatures in Lawrenceville of 36 degrees on Sunday night and Tuesday night, and 34 degrees Monday night. Across the state, lows are expected to be in the upper 30s Monday morning, and 31 in Atlanta, 32 in Athens, and 30 in Macon on Tuesday morning.

Accuweather.com is calling for lows of 34 on Sunday night, 30 Monday night and 39 Tuesday Night, while Weather.com says it will be 36 Sunday night, 31 on Monday and 33 on Tuesday.  In comparison, temperatures dropped to 28 degrees the nights of April 6 and 7, 2007, the infamous Easter Freeze that caused widespread damage to spring flowers and crops.

My guess is that the damage won’t be as bad as what we saw last year– it looks like it will be a little warmer– but I wouldn’t suggest you plant any annuals this weekend.  You should also bring in any houseplants or container plants you’ve set outside until at least Wednesday. If the worst does happen, Walter Reeves has a good article on coping with freeze damage.

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The data crunchers over at the National Climactic Data Center have come out with their annual look at the weather in the US for 2007. Overall, it was the 10th warmest and the 45th driest year on record. Here is the temperature breakout, by state:

Virtually the entire country saw above normal temperatures. Only Maine was below normal, and Texas, Vermont, and New Hampshire recorded near normal temperatures. It was a much above normal year for temperatures in the mountain west, mid-Atlantic and upper South. Kentucky and Tennessee saw their fourth warmest years on record. The national average temperature of 54.2 degrees was 1.4 degrees above the 20th century mean.

Persistent in the south drought marked 2007 on the precipitation side. North Carolina saw its driest year ever, and it was a top eleven year for the rest of the southern states. California was also extremely dry, recording its fourth driest year ever. Elsewhere, the Plains states saw top ten wettest years, although none set a record.

You can see more details in the full report.