With six days left in the month, it now looks like the remains of Rita might provide September’s only rainfall. Initial predictions had Rita stuck over the Arklatex area for several days, providing up to 20 inches of rain to the area. Now, the storm has been downgraded to a tropical depression as of this morning. The low that was Rita is predicted to move east across Tennessee on Monday, and may bring rain to North Georgia.

The weather service is predicting half an inch of rain on Monday, which would be the first rain that Gwinnett has seen since Katrina’s remnants came over the area on August 29th and 30th. Even if we get that rain, it will still put this month among the top ten driest Septembers ever. Once Rita passes through, there is only a small chance of some additional precipitation as another front passes through on Thursday.

This September has also been unusual in another way. Our mean temperature so far of 73.7 degrees is almost three degrees above the normal of 71. For the first time in three years, we’ve had 90 degree weather in Atlanta in September. Today’s normal high is 80 degrees, with a low of 61.

Hurricane Rita is expected to make landfall as a category 3 hurricane near the Texas-Louisiana border sometime this evening. Wind speeds at landfall are expected to be near 125 MPH, with sustained wind speeds of up to 60 MPH in Houston, and gusts to 75 MPH.

In addition to the very real threat of damage caused by the storm, there is also a lot of concern regarding the amount of rain the storm will bring. Right now, the high pressure system that has brought Atlanta so much dry weather this month is predicted to stall Rita near the Texas Arkansas border, allowing her to dump rainfall over the area.

The chart to the right shows expected rainfall totals between 8 PM this evening and 8 PM on Wednesday. Up to 20 inches of rain will fall near the coast, with rain up to five inches falling across a wide swath of Louisiana and Texas.

Notably missing from the rainfall picture is North Georgia. It, along with a stretch running through the Carolinas, is expected to stay dry through the period, with a possibility of rain for late next week.

Below is a satellite picture of Rita taken late this afternoon:

Hurricane Rita lashed down on the Florida Keys Tuesday evening, passing 50 miles south of Key West with winds approaching 100 MPH. The storm was expected to bring 4 to 8 inches of rain to the area, and a storm surge of 4 to 6 feet. The satellite picture below shows Rita on Tuesday morning.

The bigger worry, however, is in the Texas and Louisiana areas, where the storm is expected to become a category 4 or 5 hurricane by the time it makes landfall. The latest predictions have the storm landing somewhere along the Texas coast between Corpus Christi and Galveston sometime early Saturday morning.

It’s very understandable for the area to be concerned after the damage caused by Katrina. Although the storm isn’t expected to make a direct hit on New Orleans, any large amount of rain or high winds could further damage the levees, and prolong the still flooded conditions.

Meanwhile, Phillipe isn’t posing a threat to the United States, and may very well head off to sea. It was downgraded to a tropical storm after attaining hurricane status.

Meanwhile, in Atlanta, temperatures remain 6 to 8 degrees above the normal high of 82 degrees for this time of year. A strong upper level high pressure system is providing the extraordinary warmth, and, fortunately for New Orleans, is driving Rita to the west, rather than taking the path of Katrina.

Over the past 24 hours, two new tropical features have developed, posing possible threats both to the Gulf of Mexico area and to the Northeast seaboard.

The first to intensify is Tropical Storm Philippe, which is located southeast of Puerto Rico, and is moving to the northwest with 45 MPH winds. The storm is expected to gain hurricane strength by sometime Tuesday morning, and to track slowly towards Bermuda. It is probably too early to predict where, if at all, the storm will affect the US coastline.

Of more concern is newly developing Tropical Depression 18, which is likely to become Tropical Storm Rita by this time Monday. The storm has estimated 30 MPH winds, and is located north of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Moving west at 12 MPH, the projected path is between Cuba and South Florida, and into the Gulf of Mexico. From there, the storm is expected to intensify into a hurricane, and move across the gulf, similar to Emily earlier this year.

The upper level high pressure system that is keeping rain out of the Atlanta area will affect both storms, driving Philippe north, and keeping Rita away from the Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama Gulf Coast, which certainly doesn’t need any more rain or tropical weather.