The first three weeks of January have brought a batch of unusual weather to metro Atlanta and North Georgia, seemingly to make fun of early-season forecasts, which called for a warmer than normal and drier than normal Winter.  But, if you look at things more closely, we may not be that far off from the original prediction.

The month started out with a cold blast, getting as low as 16.5 degrees on the third, the lowest temperature of the month. Four days later, the temperature topped 70 degrees on the 7th, the warmest day of a five day streak when highs were above 60, at least ten degrees above normal.  After a few days of more or less normal temperatures, we again saw a plunge over the weekend, when the thermometer refused to budge over 32 degrees on Sunday–that’s the second time this year that’s happened.

Meanwhile, the Atlanta area saw some light snow and sleet last Thursday, and got an inch or so on Saturday, depending on where you were.  Due to the cold weather, some of that snow is still on the ground, at least where I live.  And, the Weather Service as posted a Freezing Rain advisory for much of the state north of Atlanta, including Hall County, for tomorrow morning, as another storm prepares to roll in.  Three wintry precipitation events in a week seem like a lot.

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The data crunchers over at the National Climactic Data Center have come out with their annual look at the weather in the US for 2007. Overall, it was the 10th warmest and the 45th driest year on record. Here is the temperature breakout, by state:

Virtually the entire country saw above normal temperatures. Only Maine was below normal, and Texas, Vermont, and New Hampshire recorded near normal temperatures. It was a much above normal year for temperatures in the mountain west, mid-Atlantic and upper South. Kentucky and Tennessee saw their fourth warmest years on record. The national average temperature of 54.2 degrees was 1.4 degrees above the 20th century mean.

Persistent in the south drought marked 2007 on the precipitation side. North Carolina saw its driest year ever, and it was a top eleven year for the rest of the southern states. California was also extremely dry, recording its fourth driest year ever. Elsewhere, the Plains states saw top ten wettest years, although none set a record.

You can see more details in the full report.

I’ve been watching the weather forecast for the upcoming week with some interest, especially since the low pressure system developing to our west is going to bring plenty of rain to somebody. As the weekend progressed, the models kept bringing the heaviest areas of rain further and further east, and into Georgia. This morning’s precipitation forecast, shown at right, promised some serious drought relief where it is most needed, along the northwestern part of the state. Five inches of rain north of Huntsville would help tremendously with the drought.

The rain was predicted to start Monday night, and continue through Wednesday, and could have brought as much as an inch to metro Atlanta. Now, the rain is supposed to start falling early Monday morning, and while it may continue through Wednesday, the Peachtree City forecast office is predicting only about half an inch total through the period. Accuweather is still calling for slightly over an inch here on the east side of the state, and more in Northwest Georgia.

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Preliminary figures from the National Climactic Data Center indicates that nationwide, we had the seventh warmest and 22nd driest September since records began 113 years ago. Most of the country to the east of the Rocky Mountains was somewhat warmer than normal, while the west coast had close to normal temperatures. The southwest had above normal precipitation compared to averages, while the east and midwest saw below normal rainfall, and the rest of the country was about normal.

In Georgia, the average temperature of 75.6 degrees was the 44th warmest, and the state average precipitation of 2.98 inches was the 37th driest in the 113 years recorded.

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The Climactic Data Center of the National Weather Service has now declared 2006 to be the warmest year on record, based on preliminary temperature data for the entire year. In December, they estimated that the year would go down as the third warmest, but the warm spell during the second half of the month increased the average enough to break the 111 year record.

The national average was 55 degrees, 2.2 degrees above the 20th century average, and a measly 0.07 degrees above the previous record, set in 1998. In fact, using a new methodology for temperature measurement that will go into effect this year, 1998 remains the warmest year.

New Jersey experienced its warmest temperatures ever in 2006, and much of the Northeast, Midwest, and Plains states had top five warmest years. The Southeast and West Coast were also warmer than normal, although not nearly as much as the rest of the country. No state experienced below normal temperatures last year.

So, is this evidence of global warming? The Weather Service hedges the point, saying, “It is unclear how much of the recent anomalous warmth was due to greenhouse-gas-induced warming and how much was due to the El Niño-related circulation pattern. It is known that El Niño is playing a major role in this winter’s short-term warm period.”

On the precipitation side, things were nowhere near as extreme. Only Georgia, Florida, Wyoming, and North Dakota experience much below normal rainfall, while parts of New England and the Midwest had much above normal precipitation. No state set a precipitation record, either dry or wet for the year.

You can read the entire report here.